Hi guys! it is turning mecard, again! what a pleasant weekend! i longed btc from 68 at aug 31th, i sold this at my targets!
yes i nailed it! i will humbly study more to nail more!
people who though this was going to 6k opened shorts at 71 levels. why are people shorting btc when it keeps showing bullish formation? i think we can short this for mid term at next 5 conditions.
1. bear div over 2~3days in daily(NOT 4HR, 1HR->its short term) stoch, rsi, mfi all show same pattern
2. daily rsi reached peak(now surpassing 60, it targets 70, so we wait for whether it goes over that or touch!)
3. daily candle show doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing, or array of spinning bars at double topped price
4. when longs are extremely more stacked up then shorts, going insane
5. when it encounters heavy resistance(daily 50MA, 200ma, weekly 21ema, monthly 7ma..etc)
now consolidating at 7.2~7.3, now i think btc is almost at the moment of truth, whether it will continue its run! anyway, my headline for TA is just like last time, but the wording changed to 'longed'. i think it is still keeping its bullishness!
as you see btc closed its daily candle at 7295, weekly bullish, monthly bullish, very nice. of course we have retracement, huge drops, but it seems that btc wants to jump more in the mid-long term! lets get right into it!
now we are nearing a very timid zone! downtrend line+wedge resistance+daily 200MA resistance!
you see the yellow line, that is daily 200ma now at 7800ish. also the blue downtrending line nearing at 7500ish, and it is also the wedge top resistance which has a red ichimoku cloud below!
so now 7120 is very, very important support guys. from sep 3rd, 4th, when btc breaks down 7100, stoploss your longs! it means
it would go below down the red cloud which will go to 6400. but! do you think btc will go down today after closing at 7295 almost breaking above the green cloud now? no, no, no. still we need to see upwards. btc needs to test 200MA, downtrend line, wedge resistance line, even though it wants to collapse! of course, there is always chance it just drops from current level! who knows! but!
if we break above 200ma 78, close there daily or 4hr, we can even see 8k or more.
so this week the name of the game is this: go above 75/76, close 78 or touch 74/75/76 and fall.
or, if we touch 75/76, but, retracement only stops at 72 or 70, it is super bullish then!
this week will be very important. looking at daily rsi it broke above 60, i think it will test 70. which we go into onverbought territory. we have to wait for such move too.
i look at a drop(even though it is short lived or long) at 74~76 zone anyways. retracement is needed.
so maybe, perfect number for short position can be 7573, around 7550~7600. top of the wedge resistance+2ooMA resistance, and downtrend line. whales usually surpass downtrendline go up, but dump too. so just be aware of this spot for now. i plan to open short if btc comes at that level.
today, i think we will see retracement. see, btc didn't go up so much, but indicators are already burning up. but i believe
even if there is some retracement, it will go up levels.
so today, short term, i opened short at 7300ish, target is 7100/7040. i also plan to go long at 7040/7000 zone,
if btc makes somewhat hammer, bullish bottom formation like what it did in 68zone to come to 7200ish. this might all
happen today, or next 24 hours so watch out!
so trading plan is
1. open short(bitmex)
7300~7370
target:7100/7040/6980
stploss:7380(if you have more btc, you can open 7470/7550 to add up with stopping)
2. open long
6980~7100
target:7300/7400/7500
stoploss:6880
have a good day!
yes i nailed it! i will humbly study more to nail more!
people who though this was going to 6k opened shorts at 71 levels. why are people shorting btc when it keeps showing bullish formation? i think we can short this for mid term at next 5 conditions.
1. bear div over 2~3days in daily(NOT 4HR, 1HR->its short term) stoch, rsi, mfi all show same pattern
2. daily rsi reached peak(now surpassing 60, it targets 70, so we wait for whether it goes over that or touch!)
3. daily candle show doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing, or array of spinning bars at double topped price
4. when longs are extremely more stacked up then shorts, going insane
5. when it encounters heavy resistance(daily 50MA, 200ma, weekly 21ema, monthly 7ma..etc)
now consolidating at 7.2~7.3, now i think btc is almost at the moment of truth, whether it will continue its run! anyway, my headline for TA is just like last time, but the wording changed to 'longed'. i think it is still keeping its bullishness!
as you see btc closed its daily candle at 7295, weekly bullish, monthly bullish, very nice. of course we have retracement, huge drops, but it seems that btc wants to jump more in the mid-long term! lets get right into it!
now we are nearing a very timid zone! downtrend line+wedge resistance+daily 200MA resistance!
you see the yellow line, that is daily 200ma now at 7800ish. also the blue downtrending line nearing at 7500ish, and it is also the wedge top resistance which has a red ichimoku cloud below!
so now 7120 is very, very important support guys. from sep 3rd, 4th, when btc breaks down 7100, stoploss your longs! it means
it would go below down the red cloud which will go to 6400. but! do you think btc will go down today after closing at 7295 almost breaking above the green cloud now? no, no, no. still we need to see upwards. btc needs to test 200MA, downtrend line, wedge resistance line, even though it wants to collapse! of course, there is always chance it just drops from current level! who knows! but!
if we break above 200ma 78, close there daily or 4hr, we can even see 8k or more.
so this week the name of the game is this: go above 75/76, close 78 or touch 74/75/76 and fall.
or, if we touch 75/76, but, retracement only stops at 72 or 70, it is super bullish then!
this week will be very important. looking at daily rsi it broke above 60, i think it will test 70. which we go into onverbought territory. we have to wait for such move too.
i look at a drop(even though it is short lived or long) at 74~76 zone anyways. retracement is needed.
so maybe, perfect number for short position can be 7573, around 7550~7600. top of the wedge resistance+2ooMA resistance, and downtrend line. whales usually surpass downtrendline go up, but dump too. so just be aware of this spot for now. i plan to open short if btc comes at that level.
today, i think we will see retracement. see, btc didn't go up so much, but indicators are already burning up. but i believe
even if there is some retracement, it will go up levels.
so today, short term, i opened short at 7300ish, target is 7100/7040. i also plan to go long at 7040/7000 zone,
if btc makes somewhat hammer, bullish bottom formation like what it did in 68zone to come to 7200ish. this might all
happen today, or next 24 hours so watch out!
so trading plan is
1. open short(bitmex)
7300~7370
target:7100/7040/6980
stploss:7380(if you have more btc, you can open 7470/7550 to add up with stopping)
2. open long
6980~7100
target:7300/7400/7500
stoploss:6880
have a good day!
Comment:
ok. so far boring consolidation, but i think it will retest 7300, or at highest 7350 and resume dropping. for longs, do not buy at current levels. for shorts if you have entered at 7300ish hold that, you can enter at 7270~80 area for first buy if it comes up.
Trade closed manually:
nice comment, information that i didn't know came up. 100million tether is in transaction to bitfinex, a surge might come up. i think it is noteworthy, there are always unexpected movement in market. i closed my short position at 7210ish, in case of a squeeze. it could just go test 7000 like expected, i wouldn't regret. how the market reacts to these news is more important then initial plans. so trade safe!
Comment:
so this is the plan. tether transaction, we need to see the direction first. i think, upwards is more probable at the moment. i will update, if we make a bullish reversal structure below at 7000/or 7100ish, or, if we shoot from here, upwards, i will also try to see if we can ride/or short it. in any case, shorting btc at 72, 73 level is risky, it is rather safe to go long. longing now at 7200ish? you can small amount, but chart does indicate a drop, we have mixed signals, like 4hr is about to deadcross. for now, i will observe the market.
Comment:
guys, looks like btc is creating a bull pennant upwards. i got in 7258. stoploss is around 7240(bitfinex). lets see.
Comment:
this can break up, but also down. remember what i said yesterday, if it breaks down 7100 from sep 4th, to 7k zone, don't buy. that would mean much heavy retracement maybe to 6k area. so now at 7250~70 level you can try some, but stoploss at 7230 or 40 sharp, it might make somewhat short time double bottom at 7250 area. this needs patience.
Comment:
even though, 4hr and many time frames, even daily stoch indicate retracement is definitely needed, pattern seems nice, but indicators want retracement badly. 5hr tsi deadcross etc. i might scalp this quickly and observe again. maybe a boring retracement day again.
Comment:
i am still long from 72500ish, holding. today is important from 6~9hours from now please see if pennat breaks down. if 4hr, 1hr closes below 7275~7285, outside the pennant it could break down. then we sell long, open short immediately.
Comment:
The moment of truth is coming guys!it will hit another short bottom at 7265~80 area i think. 4hour close next 3hours,and 7hours is critical.hold your longs for now.you see bears only need to push 10~20points outside the wedge at the end of the pennant.i will update.if that happens this will go to 7100ish.if not qwe will moon to 75 area.
Comment:
Breaking out!!!!sell 7450/7500/7600
Comment:
Maybe a little weak.sell some at 7370 80 levels.
Comment:
ok. we have now slight bear divergence in daily, a slight one, we did break above 7350 resistance, however it is still not convincing. i sold about 30% at 7390, i thought at least it would touch 7500, which, would make 7380 a support. lets see if it can break upwards with good volume!
Comment:
see if we can hold 7330/7300 as support for next hours. if 7280 breaks, sell longs right away. if not, just hold them. you can always take some profit, incase it just breaks down to compensate your effort and time.
Comment:
what we need to see is a higher high guys. see what happens if we don't make a HH in past prices. DROP. people might disappoint and sell. i can't judge what would happen, but just be careful try to see if we make a Higher high than it is okay to hold longs.
Comment:
Whales do not want to sell btc yet!slowly consolidating at this zone i figure more upwards moving can be in the cards. If you are in put buy orders 7288 and 7234 stop 7200.