Bulls needed for Bitcoin to break out of wave 2 towards $9500+

First off, the good news is we absolutely nailed the buy target in the last chart (green box)! I hope some of you were able to profit a bit in the ensuing bounce. Bitcoin is currently in a sideways correction pattern following a decent impulse wave up and out of the descending triangle. If the bulls can break up out of this sideways correction (probable continuation pattern, dark green lines) we could be seeing the start of five waves up towards the bear resistance trendline that has contained the market since December peak. Anticipate a three wave correction beginning around this area. In the meantime, if we break up, wave 3 will likely not equal the length of wave 1 because that bottom was so widely anticipated, terminating somewhere within the drawn circle. This means we will likely not make it to the top trendline in wave 3, so we'll need a wave 4 correction before wave 5 interacts with this trendline. If wave 1 was the extension and waves 3 and 5 are approximately equal, with wave 4 being a deeper correction (typical when wave 2 is flatter), then wave 5 will almost certainly run out of steam around this strong resistance.

Punchline, if we break upwards, we have pretty low resistance towards $9500-9900. If we fail to break up with adequate volume, we could begin to see a deeper wave 2 retracement and retesting of the now trendline support of the descending wedge channel, a must hold trendline.

I hope this helped, feel free to comment your thoughts. I welcome any constructive or even destructive criticism. We are all trying to live, learn, and prosper here as a trading family. Bring it on!

Peace and love,
crypt0guy

P.S. I leave some of my markings from earlier charts on newer ones, please see the previous ones if you have question about some of the different markings that aren't mentioned.

Comment:

I hope ya'll were able to get in on a position around the breakout point, I know I did. If so, you are in a good spot right now for this next move. Remember to set a stop loss, aim for just below the trendline that contained the recent consolidation if you want to really protect yourself. If your willing to give it more wiggle room then put it just below the most recent low found with in that pattern. As we find a new spot to consolidate along our wave three, then we can slowly move this stop upwards, make sure you leave some wiggle room for price fluctuations.

Comment:

Currently forming what appears to be a bull flag. A breakout here would leave us in the area of $9000 if we use the length of the flag pole to determine the next target. This next move may also be extended but $9000 is a psychologically important level that may be a tough intermediary resistance resulting after which we might see a correction to $8800 preparing for a larger 5th wave towards $9400.

Happy trading ya'll.

Comment:

We broke up out of the flag but not quite far enough out of a channel formed by the bottom lows of the pattern when zooming in on 1 minute. Its bearish to have the consolidation going with the trend. If we pull back, we could retrace to $8675-8720 if we break under this channel. However, we are also in a pennant within this formation and could go up through the channel meaning we're still bull with target towards $9k. Keep in mind 1m and 5m patterns are significantly less reliable than longer term ones. A larger pullback that is held near that 0.618 fib line could be a good thing and signal a bigger move ahead.

Comment:

The recent move up may have been the final subwave of wave 1. We have been forming a symmetric triangle (continuation pattern) following the likely end of wave 1. We have just broken a smidge up out of this pattern but it may be part of a longer duration correction either flat or down towards the channel bottom in orange. Do not panic as long as we hold this channel bottom, I would still consider us bull. We haven't started any larger scale reversal patterns just yet. Alternatively, we could still make a solid move towards the $9k target before the larger correction mentioned earlier.

Comment:

Yup

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After the predicted aggressive push just past $9k (above the channel trendline), we are forming an ascending broadening wedge, typically bearish. We have just touched for the third time and will likely be headed towards the bottom of the channel, however, this would only be a 50% retrace so don't be surprised if it drops to 61.8% or 78.6%. before continuing.

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Bearish case:

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Bullish case:

Comment:

The wave count on the last chart is incorrect. It should be such that the impulse breaking the green trendline should likely be wave 1. Then it would follow that in the bullish case we would have one more motive towards $9200 level.