Sawcruhteez

BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 94)

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Yesterday I outlined my reasons for turning bearish in my short term outlook of Bitcoin. It was the first post with a sell recommendation since 4/6. In addition I outlined 5 major areas of resistance and said that I expected a rally for the next 2-14 days before continuing the downtrend.

I advised to exit all long positions and outlined two ways to build a short position. As far as I am concerned selling a breakdown below $7,025 provides the best risk:reward. I have an order set to open a short for my full position as soon as/if the price falls to $7,024.

If the price creates a new local low then it would confirm a breakdown of the triangle and I would expect a large amount of selling volume to follow. From there a retest of $6,000 is highly likely. Right now the plan is to hold onto my short until the major support at $5,000.

The other option for entering a short was to stagger sell orders at each level of resistance that were outlined yesterday. The reason that I prefer the former option is because this is Bitcoin and anything could happen once the FOMO buyers see a few green candles.

If all goes according to plan then I intend to ‘flip my position’ at $4,950 by closing my short and opening a long. There will be major support waiting at that area. I am very confident that we will get a bounce from there, enough so that I am comfortable betting against the trend.

This morning I woke up to see the price pulling back slightly before the first area of resistance that I outlined. That is very bearish and indicates that we could be heading down sooner than expected. It also indicates that the move down is likely to be sharp and swift.

If we are going to pullback further then that is the way to do it. The harder and faster we fall the more likely we are to get a reversal that puts an end to this bear market. The other option is 1-2+ years of sideways action and who would prefer that?!

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