How I see Bitcoin

brandonreymejia Updated   
Hello everyone, this is how I see Bitcoin in the long run. Looking at the weekly timeframe, I am still bearish on Bitcoin right now as it is still trading below the 200-EMA since June 16th, 2022.

Also, we're currently in a technical recession after the FED of Atlanta has estimated a negative -2.1% for Quarter 2 of 2022. We already had a negative -1.6% decline for Quarter 1 and now after the FED of Atlanta released their estimates, we're definitely in the technicalities of a recession. If you don't believe we're in a recession right now, just look awful the big retailers did for their Quarter 1 earnings. Walmart and Target did terrible as their revenue went down from consumers cutting their spending due to inflation and of course the cost of gas/diesel, affecting truckers and consumers. Look at Target, when their Q1 earnings were released on May 18th, 2022; they had an excessive inventory as Target highlighted that there is less customer traffic in their stores, meaning that consumers are not spending as much simply because everything is getting too damn expensive, due to inflation! As consumers cut back on their spending, it will obviously affect the GDP. Just look at the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It's at the lowest it has ever been recorded. It's not just consumer spending, look at how many times the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted this year. The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted multiple times in February, March, April, May, and today, as of typing this right now. Many tech companies like Coinbase, Meta, Tesla, etc., have all stopped hiring people since May of 2022, in order to cut back on Salaries and Wages Expenses, due to inflation and bad market sentiment. I could keep going on and on as there are many indicators of a recession. Obviously, we still have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28th, 2022; whether we're in a recession or not.

How does this all relate to Bitcoin? Well, for the past 4 months, every time the CPI data was released, Bitcoin always had a negative reaction to it. As inflation increases, this will cause the markets to dip even further, meaning that investors will draw away from their investments and will be on cash instead during a recession. Since we are in technicalities of a recession due to the FED of Atlanta, expect the stock market to have a negative reaction, causing the price of shares to go down, which in result, will cause a negative reaction to the crypto market in the short-term.

So July 13th (CPI Data Release) and July 28th (Real GDP Data Release) will be two important days for July 2022.

In the meantime, just because I am bearish on Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of the world. I am still bullish on Bitcoin for the long run. Just zoom-out and relax.

Disclaimer: (I am not a financial advisor! Always conduct your own research before investing.)
UPDATE (November 29th, 2022)

My chart has been playing out as I expected! Since July 6th, 2022, there have now been multiple bankruptcies for many crypto exchanges, like Gemini, Voyager, and FTX. Many more bankruptcies are coming! And Guess what, as harsh as it sounds to me to say this, there need to be more bankruptcies! WHY? Because there are so many crypto exchanges with stupid business models, no emergency funds, and a lack of leadership! I mean, seriously, FTX was using collateral from investors as a way to invest for themselves without any permission. Talk about fraud right there.

Anyways, here is a little advice for everyone. I expect BTC to fall to $12,000 in the next three months. BTC is still trading below the 200-moving average, which is just awful. Pure dog crap. There has yet to be any confirmation of a breakout. With the current events, the recession has been here since May 2022, whether you like it or not. Tech companies began laying off workers back in the early summer of 2022. Even to this date, tech companies are still laying off workers. Just last week alone, HP laid off over 6,000 workers.

The only time to begin to act bullish on BTC is when it is above the 200 moving average weekly.

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