When I was going through different correlations of asset prices, I noticed bitcoin's correlation to the nasdaq100 went to some sort of cycle, which corresponded with the last two bitcoin halving cycles (4-year cycles). This I used as the basis of my analysis. I also marked my area of interest for long term buys. Of course, I can not guarantee these price levels get hit, nor the bottom is not in already. Also, I would not say it is consensus the bottom is in already, though many people think, it certainly is already (somehow being bearish feels contrarian right now). I think, though, that because of the macroeconomic circumstances (inverted yield curve, which has not yet reverted), there certainly is a possibility of BTC still making a new low. If the magic 4-year cycle of bitcoin plays out (if you go down the rabbit hole, it is quite crazy), the bottom may be in already. Though, this analysis is indicating BTC may bottom out one year later than the previous ones.
My crystal ball is telling me it could be at the end of the year or in q1 of the next, though I believe anything is possible.
My long term view on BTC though is quite bullish, and I think it may go to $100k+ during its next cycle. The effect of the coming halving though will be smaller than the previous ones, as the inflation rate only shrinks by a lower percentage each halving. Though, still after its next halving BTC will have an annual inflation rate of under 1% which is about half of golds inflation rate + bitcoin has some other superiorities compared to gold as store of value and money, which could make one assume it could reach a similar market cap. Therefore, $200k could certainly possible in this decade.
My future projections (after the bear market floor target gets hit) are just speculation, to which it will be fun looking back in a few years.
I would appreciate any thoughts, views or feedback.
Cheers
My crystal ball is telling me it could be at the end of the year or in q1 of the next, though I believe anything is possible.
My long term view on BTC though is quite bullish, and I think it may go to $100k+ during its next cycle. The effect of the coming halving though will be smaller than the previous ones, as the inflation rate only shrinks by a lower percentage each halving. Though, still after its next halving BTC will have an annual inflation rate of under 1% which is about half of golds inflation rate + bitcoin has some other superiorities compared to gold as store of value and money, which could make one assume it could reach a similar market cap. Therefore, $200k could certainly possible in this decade.
My future projections (after the bear market floor target gets hit) are just speculation, to which it will be fun looking back in a few years.
I would appreciate any thoughts, views or feedback.
Cheers