I am basing my current trades on the EW count I have for Bitcoin and not on the EW count for the total crypto market cap.
This is because I can see a lot of potential alternate counts for the Total crypto market cap I will explain those counts if they become relevant.
I also don't like the current ETH EW count because it lost the 2018 ATH (which I did expect).
This must mean the monthly 1 on the EW wave must be the 2019 retracement rally which sits at around $320. This means we could see wave 4 come well under $600 and potentially come under $300 in the worst-case scenario on the C wave. Back in June when I presented the idea of Ethereum rallying to $3k to a lot of retail traders most of them dismissed the idea that ETH would visit $3k this year.
Current Monthly EW explained
The current monthly 1 is the 2017 ATH this is because we completed a bear market after the 2013 bull market. And the size of the 2017 and 2021 bull market is still smaller than the size of 2011 and 2013. This means to get the next true Bitcoin cycle it will need to be around 3 cycles with diminishing returns each cycle.
The monthly 3 sits at $69k this is the top of the 2021 bull-run. The rule in EW is wave 4 cannot exceed wave 1, the monthly count holds when we look at the market cap and also the monthly close back in 2017 was around $14k. So I'm ok with BTC not holding the EW perfectly but it does mean we need a retracement rally similar to 2019 where BTC retraces to approximately the.618 of waves 3-4 which puts the top of BTCs b-wave at around $49k I think the B wave will come in within 10% of $49k. For the C wave, I just assumed BTC would retrace similar to the c19 crash and retrace to the .886 Fibonacci of waves a-b which should be in the low 20s but not go below $17.7k.
ETH has already exceeded $2k in this retracement so the local top and we should see ETH continue to rally after this minor B is finished to around $3k but a higher level is possible.
BTCs Elliot wave is much easier to follow and I'd be very surprised to see BTC set a new low however I do have an alternative EW count if we do set a new low. I don't like this count due to the ratios not being particularly great.
Why do I think a large ABC is more likely than a bear market?
My first reason is a lot of the major indicators in the forex market are pointing toward a risk off-season. I know people call BTC "digital gold" but BTC is not digital gold and it doesn't act like gold it acts exactly like a tech stock. BTC only performs well in risk on seasons or a bull market in the stock market.
thedefiant.io/bitcoi...n-stocks-correlation
This article shows how bitcoin recently has been around 90% correlated with the NASDAQ and throughout its entire history, the correlation of BTC with the NASDAQ has only increased.
What a lot of retail doesn't seem to grasp is stocks are driven by profits but profits are a double edge sword they're almost always a lagging indicator. The time to cut your losses would be before bad earnings are announced because usually, the price of a stock is already in decline before the earnings reports are released. Profits due to exploding oil&food prices and inflation will actually be reported as higher for a lot of companies, a lot of confidence will return to the market when they realise inflation has likely peaked for now. We're coming to the end of a 20-year-long bubble in the Nasdaq but it looks like we'll have 1 more leg up in 2023 where we should just barely break the previous highs. After that, we should experience the worst recession in modern history and come much below the 'c19 crash' on all major indices.
A good example of this is Netflix:
Before the earnings report on April 19, the price had already fallen over 50% from its highs. It then proceeded to fall another 50% after the earnings report was released, the majority of the retracement actually took place before the retracement.
ir.netflix.net/inves...Results/default.aspx
This is because I can see a lot of potential alternate counts for the Total crypto market cap I will explain those counts if they become relevant.
I also don't like the current ETH EW count because it lost the 2018 ATH (which I did expect).
This must mean the monthly 1 on the EW wave must be the 2019 retracement rally which sits at around $320. This means we could see wave 4 come well under $600 and potentially come under $300 in the worst-case scenario on the C wave. Back in June when I presented the idea of Ethereum rallying to $3k to a lot of retail traders most of them dismissed the idea that ETH would visit $3k this year.
Current Monthly EW explained
The current monthly 1 is the 2017 ATH this is because we completed a bear market after the 2013 bull market. And the size of the 2017 and 2021 bull market is still smaller than the size of 2011 and 2013. This means to get the next true Bitcoin cycle it will need to be around 3 cycles with diminishing returns each cycle.
The monthly 3 sits at $69k this is the top of the 2021 bull-run. The rule in EW is wave 4 cannot exceed wave 1, the monthly count holds when we look at the market cap and also the monthly close back in 2017 was around $14k. So I'm ok with BTC not holding the EW perfectly but it does mean we need a retracement rally similar to 2019 where BTC retraces to approximately the.618 of waves 3-4 which puts the top of BTCs b-wave at around $49k I think the B wave will come in within 10% of $49k. For the C wave, I just assumed BTC would retrace similar to the c19 crash and retrace to the .886 Fibonacci of waves a-b which should be in the low 20s but not go below $17.7k.
ETH has already exceeded $2k in this retracement so the local top and we should see ETH continue to rally after this minor B is finished to around $3k but a higher level is possible.
BTCs Elliot wave is much easier to follow and I'd be very surprised to see BTC set a new low however I do have an alternative EW count if we do set a new low. I don't like this count due to the ratios not being particularly great.
Why do I think a large ABC is more likely than a bear market?
My first reason is a lot of the major indicators in the forex market are pointing toward a risk off-season. I know people call BTC "digital gold" but BTC is not digital gold and it doesn't act like gold it acts exactly like a tech stock. BTC only performs well in risk on seasons or a bull market in the stock market.
thedefiant.io/bitcoi...n-stocks-correlation
This article shows how bitcoin recently has been around 90% correlated with the NASDAQ and throughout its entire history, the correlation of BTC with the NASDAQ has only increased.
What a lot of retail doesn't seem to grasp is stocks are driven by profits but profits are a double edge sword they're almost always a lagging indicator. The time to cut your losses would be before bad earnings are announced because usually, the price of a stock is already in decline before the earnings reports are released. Profits due to exploding oil&food prices and inflation will actually be reported as higher for a lot of companies, a lot of confidence will return to the market when they realise inflation has likely peaked for now. We're coming to the end of a 20-year-long bubble in the Nasdaq but it looks like we'll have 1 more leg up in 2023 where we should just barely break the previous highs. After that, we should experience the worst recession in modern history and come much below the 'c19 crash' on all major indices.
A good example of this is Netflix:
Before the earnings report on April 19, the price had already fallen over 50% from its highs. It then proceeded to fall another 50% after the earnings report was released, the majority of the retracement actually took place before the retracement.
ir.netflix.net/inves...Results/default.aspx