#202418 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
current market cycle: Trading Range or Bear Trend - it’s unclear right now
key levels: 60000 - 67000
comment: Also another market right at the inflection point. If we break down from here, we are in my drawn W3 and if bulls manage to strongly break above 67000 again, we might see another 70000/71000 run. I do think bearish are favored here.
bull case: Bulls still ecstatic and buying 60000 eagerly, once that stops, nothing can stop it until 50000. They need to keep it above 63500 for now, or we retest 60000 and maybe lower. If we turn here, 67000 is probably next.
bear case: Bears need more selling pressure to retest 60000 again and then they will need much more force to break through it. They are below the daily 20ema (it’s around 65000 right now), which is good for them and they need to stay below or 67000 is next. I don’t think there are many big bitcoin bulls who do not have a stop below 60000 (probably more like 59000 but you get the importance of that number). So if we break below, it will probably flush to 50000/55000.
short term: Slightly bearish if we grind lower and stay below 65000 for target 60000, where the big support is.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current market cycle: Trading Range or Bear Trend - it’s unclear right now
key levels: 60000 - 67000
comment: Also another market right at the inflection point. If we break down from here, we are in my drawn W3 and if bulls manage to strongly break above 67000 again, we might see another 70000/71000 run. I do think bearish are favored here.
bull case: Bulls still ecstatic and buying 60000 eagerly, once that stops, nothing can stop it until 50000. They need to keep it above 63500 for now, or we retest 60000 and maybe lower. If we turn here, 67000 is probably next.
bear case: Bears need more selling pressure to retest 60000 again and then they will need much more force to break through it. They are below the daily 20ema (it’s around 65000 right now), which is good for them and they need to stay below or 67000 is next. I don’t think there are many big bitcoin bulls who do not have a stop below 60000 (probably more like 59000 but you get the importance of that number). So if we break below, it will probably flush to 50000/55000.
short term: Slightly bearish if we grind lower and stay below 65000 for target 60000, where the big support is.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
