Phi-Deltalytics

BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year.

2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.

3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is now neutral after being overly bullish last week. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend but the current price is getting close to this group’s purchase price. This means, soon, we will see a decrease in supply from the current group of active traders. The ideal accumulation zone is around 10.5-11k.

4. Margin Market Actions:
Potential short squeeze alert (short-term) in place on 8/22. However, kind of exhausted at this point. The CME institutional traders’ significant increase in short positions put us back in an institutional bear trend (do keep in mind institutions trade differently from retails, and exit at wave 3s rather than wave 5s --> liquidity!), and potentially indicate a further cool down to 11k.

5. SPX correlation
I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact . What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.

6. CME Gap
90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause.

Key Technicals:

1. Key support at 10.5k and 9k.
2. 5 Elliot wave to the upside likely finished
3. RSI bearish:
Potentially failing MA & resistance at 60 with RSI bearish divergence
4. MACD bearish:
MACD bearish divergence
No sign of histogram up tick yet

Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Comment: After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential.
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