The ECB's strong message, dovish FED, and a high alert

Yesterday, Bitcoin broke above the 17 000$ price tag in spite of a strong message coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB). The official Twitter account of the ECB tweeted that the price of Bitcoin is artificially held up (at the moment) and that soon it will embark on a journey to irrelevance. This is an unusual statement from the European officials, leaving us only to speculate about the workings behind the veil. Therefore, this message puts us on high alert.

The actual message from the official Twitter account of ECB:
"The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. #TheECBblog looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets."

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Jerome Powell said during his speech that as soon as in December 2022, the pace of rate hikes might slow down. Despite this being nothing new, the market sought a pivot in Powell’s statements and rose across the board. However, the market discounts the fact that interest rates are here to stay for much longer than initially thought. Additionally, the market participants seem to ignore that rate hikes will continue to increase, putting more pressure on debt servicing and the overall economy.

As a result, we expect the bear market to continue to unravel and drag prices of cryptocurrencies and stocks much lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$.

Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages in a bearish constellation. The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement above the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with corrections and is bullish for the short term. Now, the 20-day SMA acts as a support level; meanwhile, the 50-day SMA acts as a resistance level.

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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

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