BTCUSD going Short, Long, then Short

Pretty simple set up. We have:

• Falling wedge
  
• price currently at resistance
  
• bearish divergence on the RSI
  
• Topping behavior with a candlewick at a fib extension level & and a developing red candle
  

In with a tight stop right above our previous peak and a take profit near our previous low. I am expecting a rally to the high of the wedge and the price action hits that target with some sort of bearish divergence relative to the peak of the wedge, but we will need to be patient to see how that develops. The fib retracement is preliminary because (hopefully) we are going to set a slight lower low but it is nice to see the height of the wedge placed on a rough midpoint of the wedge hits a fib extensions key level of 0.236. The 1.6818 target on the way down is about $2,480 and the 2.618 target (not shown to keep the chart readable) is $1,295.

Comment:

Ok, we see that the wedge has started to perform nicely but has hit a bit of resistance. Currently the inverse head and shoulders makes the best sense for us to get close to our target before getting smacked back down to a new low.

Concurrently we see that ETHUSD has it the top of the falling wedge we have been in since early April. The price action of ETHUSD might chop sideways a bit more, go a tad higher as it hits resistance, but ultimately, down. We still have until the new year for ETHUSD to continue down, and the wedge I suspect will break to the downside (as wedges do about 25-33% of the time).

Comment:

Looks like my update about inverse head and shoulders was not necessary as BTCUSD powered through resistance and hit my target with slight over performance. It also appears I was dead wrong about ETHUSD falling at resistance as we have blasted through quite bullishly.

Having said all that, BTCUSD is still on the way down according to plan. As I mentioned we had some slight over-performance on the falling wedge and we exceeded by peak price by about $100. From there BTCUSD has acted according to plan, not able to show any technical strength. Interim target of about $2,500 is still in play with a final target around $1,200.

Comment:

Its been a while since I have looked at this chart but I believe it is still valid. It has taken much longer than I expected for this to play out but the internal consistence of the fib levels in relation to the falling wedge have played themselves out well, with the black arrows showing where the fib levels have acted as strong resistance or support.

I have drawn over the chart in blue the larger consolidation triangle I believe to be forming. This consolidation still has a about 6 weeks to play out and obviously could break to the upside. I am biased to the downside. My post on the S&P show I think we have reached the top there and with real and paper losses incoming in the normal exchanges I see crypto taking a beating with relief rallies from here to there. My targets remain the same of the fib extension in the original post, with a low/bounce at about $2500 and a final bottom near $1,300.

I haven't posted it here, but lots of TA expect the 200w SMA to act as long term support and I am under the belief that it will not hold. IF the 200W does hold in the short run I won't be interested in BTCUSD as an investment (long term) until I see a golden cross on the daily, or even better, on the 3D or 1w.