MASSIVE CHANCE OF MAKE 1000% ON BITCOIN - SHORT SHORT SHORT!
How many times have you checked your chart since the January 21st break of 40-41k?
Be honest with yourself - if that number is more than the number of days since then (just over 10) and you are not day trading then you may want to keep reading. In this article, I will give you some insight into your subconscious driving this destructive behaviour, and a little forecast for potential paths Bitcoin might choose to take.
Did you know that 'there is no such thing as free money' in the market? I know it may sound strange, particularly if you got used to every coin you bought x10 before May/June 2021 just 8 months ago. But this statement always rings true in the end. The market may gift you randomly with temporary gains but it will ALWAYS take ill-gotten gains away. Phrases like "everyone is a genius in a bull market" have been banded around ever since technical analysis theory was first introduced by Mr Dow in the 18th Century. Maybe you've even experienced this feeling of invisibility - after all, many of you will be sat here because despite never having changed a thing about your trading habits, suddenly you aren't making the kind of profits as in 2020/2021. Maybe you have never even made money since starting after your friend told you about Bitcoin in 2020, but (like I did when I first started) you are the most stubborn of perfectionists.
Regardless of where you sit, understanding the context of the market and allowing that to frame the mindset within which you approach trades is one of the foundational elements of being a successful trader. This extremely simple skill - the ability to let go of natural and learnt bias, adjusting to statistical probabilities instead of gut feelings - is one of the primary reasons the majority of traders fail. 'There is no such thing as free money' can manifest itself in obscure ways. Knowing that most people can not install self-discipline and overcome their own bias (thinking things like "I've got to get in now because what happens if the market turns!"), commission fee brokers like Robinhood and Trade212 make up for the missed revenue of receiving no fees by enticing inexperienced traders onto their platform. Once there, they know that 90% of retail traders lose money, and so every trade that you make they do the opposite, seemingly being a democratising factor in the markets but secretly sucking the blood out of innocent people that have not learnt just how brutal, inhuman and alien trading really is. They force you to take leveraged positions so that seemingly tiny $0.01 moves cost retail investors x100 more, increasing revenue for the platform. They take the happiness and hope that is so pure when you trade - "I'm going to be able to FINALLY not worry about the insecurity of money!" and turn it against you too, in effect, steal your hard-earned money.
This is just one practice of an environment whose very design and functions are to take money from those with honest, good intentions and concentrate it within the hands of the few. And so being involved in the markets by its very nature, is a brutal and extremely dangerous game that you should not take lightly. Every decision you make should be done with the careful aim of NOT losing your money to these sharks, NOT giving in to their tricks and mirrors and forging your own destiny in bending your emotions/bias/sub-conscious into a force that makes your life a better one, rather than a force that allows evil men to steal money from you. I know it sounds extreme but I will gently point to the figure again - 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days - you are not an exception to this. So are you here to gamble or let your ego trick you into thinking you're just so smart and rules don't apply to you (literally how Robinhood makes money) or are you here to learn a lifelong craft that takes years of careful consistent dedication to master?
It is with this that I turn to your only friends - probability and risk management. These are the two weapons you hold that are the ONLY things to both subdue the immeasurable force that is your natural/learnt bias (again by this I mean those gut feelings that 'all hope is lost, I'm selling now' or 'I'll just check my chart cause maybe I'll get a dopamine hit from bitcoin moving like I pray it will') and act as a guarantor to consistently generate you profit regardless of what the market/market makers do.
So, let's use Bitcoin as our example here. NOTE: I have pulled out to the weekly. This is because a weekly timeframe allows us to gauge the long term directions of the market and benefit from long term trends over years of investing, rather than catching a 3% move up in the morning only to panic sell and lose 10% in the afternoon, followed by a light cry in the evening even though you know that 'bitcoin is the future and I'm never going to sell!'.
1: Contextualise the market - There are only two true states a market can be in: ranging or trending.
A range is price oscillating between two rough price areas, with moving averages being relatively flat, while a trend is where moving averages drifting in the direction of price which itself forms higher lows and higher highs. The market never goes from a bullish trend to a bearish trend, and so ranges are the period where buying/selling pressure becomes neutralised while (for whatever reason) more people start doing the opposite of what had been happening before. With this understanding, we can see that on the weekly time frame, bitcoin has TRENDED bullish since 2020, and RANGED since mid-2021. While the range suggests a 50/50 distribution of buyers and sellers while the market decides where it goes next, the slightly October 2021 higher high, combined with the previous bullish trend means that the overall CONTEXT within which we are trading is a range tainted with bullish elements.
The reasons for this are many and in all honesty, you don't need to know them. But for those interested a few of the many explanations can be as simple as - people look at how much price has appreciated (the trend) and regardless of what price is currently doing their subconscious greed is more likely to push them to ignore current price action and instead only see the previous trend (the same is true in a downtrend where the greed is replaced with sub-conscious fear). This translates to - even if we are ranging where buyers and sellers are equally matched, there is a statistical probability that the above sub-conscious bias of participants will push price to extract the range in the same direction as the previous trend. For this reason, we get the popular phrase - "The trend is your friend".
As such, while in a range probability of price is equal in its ability to go up or down (oscillating between two price areas), these bullish signs gives a higher probability of Bitcoin continuing its bullish trend rather than entering into the dreaded bear market.
BAM IT IS THAT *%&£ING SIMPLE. YOU'VE DONE IT. THAT IS ALL TRADING IS. Yes there are much more complex steps to come and risk needs to be qualified more BUT this is the foundational qualifications you can use to contextualise the market that suddenly means you might not be one of those 90% of traders who lose 90% of their money in 90 days. With the above simple steps, you have found the OBJECTIVE rough probability that price will go up more than it will go down, regardless of if you look at the chart 20 times a day or feel the need to FOMO in when we pumped 4.32% at 4am while you're in the bathroom.
2: Personal risk - Risk is simply defined as how much you can lose in the market. If I buy 0.1 Bitcoin at $35k for $3.5k, and I have a stoploss 20% lower at $28k then my RISK is 20% of my asset purchase, in this case, $700. I can not stress this enough but with every trade, your FIRST priority should be understanding the amount you can lose. There are many strategies for figuring out trades with defined risk (I will give you one at the end) but just like understanding the CONTEXT you are trading in in step 1, if you understand the potential events that can unfold with your money you will subdue the sub-conscious urges to act that Robinhood requires its users to give in to in order to make money. "AH IM GOING TO SELL CAUSE THE MARKET IS DOWN 10% I NEVER THOUGHT THIS COULD HAPPEN!", suddenly turns into, "Oh I knew how much I could lose when I opened the trade, and that was a risk I was willing to take so lol I'm the buddah".
3: Combining the two using Bitcoin as an example.
In a market that is ranging (oscillating between two price areas) BUT has a distinct, objective probability of continuing the prior bullish trend = we look for buys. We wait for the two distinct areas of the range within which price will oscillate (60k and 30k) then we buy if we get close to the low of the range because we know probability not only favours a continuation of the bullish trend following the completion of the range but also that we will very likely head on back up to the highs of the range anyway (as again, in a range buyers and sellers are 50/50 meaning prices tends to pull away from the extremes of the range - in this case the 30k areas - and back into the middle of the range). With this simple understanding, we have put ourselves in a highly probable situation to be profitable. If you do this 100 times, more often than not you will make money. Stick this together with the fact that we have very easily defined range boundaries (30k area and 60k), we can begin to gauge our risk - a stop loss below 25-30k would be appropriate and so you'd look to potentially lose up to 30-40% of your capital investment. Alternatively, if you are investing rather than swing trading, you measure your risk by limiting the total capital you are willing to put in - "I want to invest $500 and I know that Bitcoin is in a highly probable area for buys, so I will use that money and if we break down from here well then that's cool, I knew I could lose that $500.
Potential forecast:
Now onto where the market might go. While contextualising the market will never give you exact probabilities in the potential direction of price, it gives us rough estimates. With Bitcoin, this currently stands at SOMEWHERE between 60-80% chance of extracting the range to the upside and heading off towards 75k and potentially to 100k. This IS NOT a certainty, the title was meant to draw you in with reassurances of knowing the future when the reality is that in trading, you can never know the future. The human mind hates uncertainty though and that is why we know our risk and context so we can calm our little monkey brain. With the current price location, buying is heavily favoured and price is extremely attractive for long term inventory adds given the weight of previous price action (the bullish trend and the bullish tainted range).
Additionally, the 30-38k area is an area that has proven itself as support before AND even if this is broken the entire area between the previous all-time high of 20k until 30k is a general zone of resistance. While you may be terrified, you can bet on it (by literally trading lol) that the smart investor / big companies / market makers will 10000% be buying bitcoin at the current 50% discount, and will pile on even heavier at a 60/70% discount. As such this is why it is so important to understand the risk and the context. I know that even if we break down from here, I have not risked so much that I will become bankrupt AND I know that probability is on my side.
Potential trade:
Candlesticks are nothing more than a visualisation of price action over the course of time, and price action is nothing more than a demonstration of the behaviour of market participants. In this chart above, the candle sticks represent the price action (and so the behaviour of buyers and sellers) over the course of the week (this is a weekly chart after all). Last week, this evolved into something commonly referred to as a hammer candle - (I've labelled this as "Hammer" on the chart.) This particular pattern demonstrates that price opened high, sellers pushed price lower but for whatever reason, over the course of the week buyers came in and pushed the price back up to close the candle near the highs. Combine this with the fact that we are in a heavy support zone where probability heavily favours buyers it tells us that, NOT ONLY do we think we are somewhere people want to buy but, over the last week, sellers tried to push the price down YET buyers bought! This adds another layer of probability to our context and gives more weight to the potential path that Bitcoin is more likely to go bullish from here and ATLEAST test near the high of the range than to break down 30k area.
The hammerstick also gives us very easily defined risk for a trade:
1: Your entry is defined when the following week's candle CLOSES (you must wait for the close because otherwise you may be faked out) higher than the high of the hammer candlestick (I know, it sucks to wait and sometimes price pumps well before this happens and you've just got to accept that that might happen - remember your not focused on how much you can gain but on how much you can lose).
2: You defined your risk by placing a stop loss just below the LOW of the hammer candle.
3: In this instance, you would take profits on resistances within the range - 25% profit above at or just above 41k, 50% at 51k, 25% at 60-69k OR if you are optimistic, 75k or 100k - something like that. I would not recommend these extended targets as while this is just one trade, if we did get to these other resistance areas more likely than not additional trades will become available and you don't really want to keep a swing trade open for a year or so (swing trades are usually held for a matter of weeks to a few months, often due to the fact that most swing trades are conducted on CFDs or future options and so cost $).
If the above trade idea is new to you, or you can not instantly point out the profit taking areas with 100% certainty you SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS TRADE AND YOU WILL MITIGATE THE STATISTICAL PROBABILITY DUE TO YOUR INABILITY TO TRUST IN YOUR UNBIAS ABILITY TO TRADE. Mark it down on your chart, follow along to see if it works, then spend 6 months to a year more learning.
And that's it. How relaxing is that now? There is no bear market, and probability still favours bullishness. Obviously that can all change but for the moment you can sleep easy. Trading is boring and that's good because let's face it, there are so many more interesting things to do than stare at your charts all day.
Thank you for your time.
M.
NOTE: I would not be here without the incredible lessons I have learned from my past teachers. I can not offer the same level of market coverage or substantial knowledge as these guys. I learnt what I know from MarcPMarkets/Goldbug1 at 'Greenbridge Investing' & Phil through 'Pro_Indicators' so go check them out.
PLEASE DO NOT USE THIS POST AS A CALL FOR ACTION. IF YOU ARE INEXPERIENCED, READ THIS AND DECIDE TO OPEN A TRADE, THAT IS EXACTLY THE BEHAVIOUR I AM ENCOURAGING YOU NOT TO DO. Go away, learn technical analysis and probability trading, learn a strategy and practise that. If you haven't spent the time investing in yourself before you start investing, you aren't investing but gambling.
Be honest with yourself - if that number is more than the number of days since then (just over 10) and you are not day trading then you may want to keep reading. In this article, I will give you some insight into your subconscious driving this destructive behaviour, and a little forecast for potential paths Bitcoin might choose to take.
Did you know that 'there is no such thing as free money' in the market? I know it may sound strange, particularly if you got used to every coin you bought x10 before May/June 2021 just 8 months ago. But this statement always rings true in the end. The market may gift you randomly with temporary gains but it will ALWAYS take ill-gotten gains away. Phrases like "everyone is a genius in a bull market" have been banded around ever since technical analysis theory was first introduced by Mr Dow in the 18th Century. Maybe you've even experienced this feeling of invisibility - after all, many of you will be sat here because despite never having changed a thing about your trading habits, suddenly you aren't making the kind of profits as in 2020/2021. Maybe you have never even made money since starting after your friend told you about Bitcoin in 2020, but (like I did when I first started) you are the most stubborn of perfectionists.
Regardless of where you sit, understanding the context of the market and allowing that to frame the mindset within which you approach trades is one of the foundational elements of being a successful trader. This extremely simple skill - the ability to let go of natural and learnt bias, adjusting to statistical probabilities instead of gut feelings - is one of the primary reasons the majority of traders fail. 'There is no such thing as free money' can manifest itself in obscure ways. Knowing that most people can not install self-discipline and overcome their own bias (thinking things like "I've got to get in now because what happens if the market turns!"), commission fee brokers like Robinhood and Trade212 make up for the missed revenue of receiving no fees by enticing inexperienced traders onto their platform. Once there, they know that 90% of retail traders lose money, and so every trade that you make they do the opposite, seemingly being a democratising factor in the markets but secretly sucking the blood out of innocent people that have not learnt just how brutal, inhuman and alien trading really is. They force you to take leveraged positions so that seemingly tiny $0.01 moves cost retail investors x100 more, increasing revenue for the platform. They take the happiness and hope that is so pure when you trade - "I'm going to be able to FINALLY not worry about the insecurity of money!" and turn it against you too, in effect, steal your hard-earned money.
This is just one practice of an environment whose very design and functions are to take money from those with honest, good intentions and concentrate it within the hands of the few. And so being involved in the markets by its very nature, is a brutal and extremely dangerous game that you should not take lightly. Every decision you make should be done with the careful aim of NOT losing your money to these sharks, NOT giving in to their tricks and mirrors and forging your own destiny in bending your emotions/bias/sub-conscious into a force that makes your life a better one, rather than a force that allows evil men to steal money from you. I know it sounds extreme but I will gently point to the figure again - 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days - you are not an exception to this. So are you here to gamble or let your ego trick you into thinking you're just so smart and rules don't apply to you (literally how Robinhood makes money) or are you here to learn a lifelong craft that takes years of careful consistent dedication to master?
It is with this that I turn to your only friends - probability and risk management. These are the two weapons you hold that are the ONLY things to both subdue the immeasurable force that is your natural/learnt bias (again by this I mean those gut feelings that 'all hope is lost, I'm selling now' or 'I'll just check my chart cause maybe I'll get a dopamine hit from bitcoin moving like I pray it will') and act as a guarantor to consistently generate you profit regardless of what the market/market makers do.
So, let's use Bitcoin as our example here. NOTE: I have pulled out to the weekly. This is because a weekly timeframe allows us to gauge the long term directions of the market and benefit from long term trends over years of investing, rather than catching a 3% move up in the morning only to panic sell and lose 10% in the afternoon, followed by a light cry in the evening even though you know that 'bitcoin is the future and I'm never going to sell!'.
1: Contextualise the market - There are only two true states a market can be in: ranging or trending.
A range is price oscillating between two rough price areas, with moving averages being relatively flat, while a trend is where moving averages drifting in the direction of price which itself forms higher lows and higher highs. The market never goes from a bullish trend to a bearish trend, and so ranges are the period where buying/selling pressure becomes neutralised while (for whatever reason) more people start doing the opposite of what had been happening before. With this understanding, we can see that on the weekly time frame, bitcoin has TRENDED bullish since 2020, and RANGED since mid-2021. While the range suggests a 50/50 distribution of buyers and sellers while the market decides where it goes next, the slightly October 2021 higher high, combined with the previous bullish trend means that the overall CONTEXT within which we are trading is a range tainted with bullish elements.
The reasons for this are many and in all honesty, you don't need to know them. But for those interested a few of the many explanations can be as simple as - people look at how much price has appreciated (the trend) and regardless of what price is currently doing their subconscious greed is more likely to push them to ignore current price action and instead only see the previous trend (the same is true in a downtrend where the greed is replaced with sub-conscious fear). This translates to - even if we are ranging where buyers and sellers are equally matched, there is a statistical probability that the above sub-conscious bias of participants will push price to extract the range in the same direction as the previous trend. For this reason, we get the popular phrase - "The trend is your friend".
As such, while in a range probability of price is equal in its ability to go up or down (oscillating between two price areas), these bullish signs gives a higher probability of Bitcoin continuing its bullish trend rather than entering into the dreaded bear market.
BAM IT IS THAT *%&£ING SIMPLE. YOU'VE DONE IT. THAT IS ALL TRADING IS. Yes there are much more complex steps to come and risk needs to be qualified more BUT this is the foundational qualifications you can use to contextualise the market that suddenly means you might not be one of those 90% of traders who lose 90% of their money in 90 days. With the above simple steps, you have found the OBJECTIVE rough probability that price will go up more than it will go down, regardless of if you look at the chart 20 times a day or feel the need to FOMO in when we pumped 4.32% at 4am while you're in the bathroom.
2: Personal risk - Risk is simply defined as how much you can lose in the market. If I buy 0.1 Bitcoin at $35k for $3.5k, and I have a stoploss 20% lower at $28k then my RISK is 20% of my asset purchase, in this case, $700. I can not stress this enough but with every trade, your FIRST priority should be understanding the amount you can lose. There are many strategies for figuring out trades with defined risk (I will give you one at the end) but just like understanding the CONTEXT you are trading in in step 1, if you understand the potential events that can unfold with your money you will subdue the sub-conscious urges to act that Robinhood requires its users to give in to in order to make money. "AH IM GOING TO SELL CAUSE THE MARKET IS DOWN 10% I NEVER THOUGHT THIS COULD HAPPEN!", suddenly turns into, "Oh I knew how much I could lose when I opened the trade, and that was a risk I was willing to take so lol I'm the buddah".
3: Combining the two using Bitcoin as an example.
In a market that is ranging (oscillating between two price areas) BUT has a distinct, objective probability of continuing the prior bullish trend = we look for buys. We wait for the two distinct areas of the range within which price will oscillate (60k and 30k) then we buy if we get close to the low of the range because we know probability not only favours a continuation of the bullish trend following the completion of the range but also that we will very likely head on back up to the highs of the range anyway (as again, in a range buyers and sellers are 50/50 meaning prices tends to pull away from the extremes of the range - in this case the 30k areas - and back into the middle of the range). With this simple understanding, we have put ourselves in a highly probable situation to be profitable. If you do this 100 times, more often than not you will make money. Stick this together with the fact that we have very easily defined range boundaries (30k area and 60k), we can begin to gauge our risk - a stop loss below 25-30k would be appropriate and so you'd look to potentially lose up to 30-40% of your capital investment. Alternatively, if you are investing rather than swing trading, you measure your risk by limiting the total capital you are willing to put in - "I want to invest $500 and I know that Bitcoin is in a highly probable area for buys, so I will use that money and if we break down from here well then that's cool, I knew I could lose that $500.
Potential forecast:
Now onto where the market might go. While contextualising the market will never give you exact probabilities in the potential direction of price, it gives us rough estimates. With Bitcoin, this currently stands at SOMEWHERE between 60-80% chance of extracting the range to the upside and heading off towards 75k and potentially to 100k. This IS NOT a certainty, the title was meant to draw you in with reassurances of knowing the future when the reality is that in trading, you can never know the future. The human mind hates uncertainty though and that is why we know our risk and context so we can calm our little monkey brain. With the current price location, buying is heavily favoured and price is extremely attractive for long term inventory adds given the weight of previous price action (the bullish trend and the bullish tainted range).
Additionally, the 30-38k area is an area that has proven itself as support before AND even if this is broken the entire area between the previous all-time high of 20k until 30k is a general zone of resistance. While you may be terrified, you can bet on it (by literally trading lol) that the smart investor / big companies / market makers will 10000% be buying bitcoin at the current 50% discount, and will pile on even heavier at a 60/70% discount. As such this is why it is so important to understand the risk and the context. I know that even if we break down from here, I have not risked so much that I will become bankrupt AND I know that probability is on my side.
Potential trade:
Candlesticks are nothing more than a visualisation of price action over the course of time, and price action is nothing more than a demonstration of the behaviour of market participants. In this chart above, the candle sticks represent the price action (and so the behaviour of buyers and sellers) over the course of the week (this is a weekly chart after all). Last week, this evolved into something commonly referred to as a hammer candle - (I've labelled this as "Hammer" on the chart.) This particular pattern demonstrates that price opened high, sellers pushed price lower but for whatever reason, over the course of the week buyers came in and pushed the price back up to close the candle near the highs. Combine this with the fact that we are in a heavy support zone where probability heavily favours buyers it tells us that, NOT ONLY do we think we are somewhere people want to buy but, over the last week, sellers tried to push the price down YET buyers bought! This adds another layer of probability to our context and gives more weight to the potential path that Bitcoin is more likely to go bullish from here and ATLEAST test near the high of the range than to break down 30k area.
The hammerstick also gives us very easily defined risk for a trade:
1: Your entry is defined when the following week's candle CLOSES (you must wait for the close because otherwise you may be faked out) higher than the high of the hammer candlestick (I know, it sucks to wait and sometimes price pumps well before this happens and you've just got to accept that that might happen - remember your not focused on how much you can gain but on how much you can lose).
2: You defined your risk by placing a stop loss just below the LOW of the hammer candle.
3: In this instance, you would take profits on resistances within the range - 25% profit above at or just above 41k, 50% at 51k, 25% at 60-69k OR if you are optimistic, 75k or 100k - something like that. I would not recommend these extended targets as while this is just one trade, if we did get to these other resistance areas more likely than not additional trades will become available and you don't really want to keep a swing trade open for a year or so (swing trades are usually held for a matter of weeks to a few months, often due to the fact that most swing trades are conducted on CFDs or future options and so cost $).
If the above trade idea is new to you, or you can not instantly point out the profit taking areas with 100% certainty you SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS TRADE AND YOU WILL MITIGATE THE STATISTICAL PROBABILITY DUE TO YOUR INABILITY TO TRUST IN YOUR UNBIAS ABILITY TO TRADE. Mark it down on your chart, follow along to see if it works, then spend 6 months to a year more learning.
And that's it. How relaxing is that now? There is no bear market, and probability still favours bullishness. Obviously that can all change but for the moment you can sleep easy. Trading is boring and that's good because let's face it, there are so many more interesting things to do than stare at your charts all day.
Thank you for your time.
M.
NOTE: I would not be here without the incredible lessons I have learned from my past teachers. I can not offer the same level of market coverage or substantial knowledge as these guys. I learnt what I know from MarcPMarkets/Goldbug1 at 'Greenbridge Investing' & Phil through 'Pro_Indicators' so go check them out.
PLEASE DO NOT USE THIS POST AS A CALL FOR ACTION. IF YOU ARE INEXPERIENCED, READ THIS AND DECIDE TO OPEN A TRADE, THAT IS EXACTLY THE BEHAVIOUR I AM ENCOURAGING YOU NOT TO DO. Go away, learn technical analysis and probability trading, learn a strategy and practise that. If you haven't spent the time investing in yourself before you start investing, you aren't investing but gambling.
Trade active:
The weekly has seemingly taken out the hammer candlestick / pinbar high of last week. If we retain value above this level (38.75k or thereabout), the trade is valid and an entry is viable. I know it may be tempting but you must respect the close of the candle as for whatever reason this could evolve as a fake out, and so respecting the close acts as an added layer of probability to go in your favour.
With this trade, the stoploss would be placed at 33K REGARDLESS of the entry price. The difference between your entry price, and the stoploss is your risk. Sometimes in these cases where you must wait, price gets away from you - if we close this weeks candle at 41-44k then I would suggest not entering as the "risk" (with a stop at 33k) would be relatively high. However, if we hold anywhere between 38-41k this trade would be very viable.
Alternatively, 41-44k is a resistance area, and so if price reacts off of this area and retraces towards 39k over the course of next week then an entry there would also be viable, with the exact same stop as an entry following this weeks candle close.
Any price over the 41k point of control shits probability heavily in favour of further bullish action and so a weekly candle close above here would be heavily tainted bullish.
Profit-taking:
Apologies I may have misspoke above with to timid targets.
Areas for profit on this trade SHOULD IT EXECUTE would be -
Small TP at 46-50K (this is a resistance zone that stretched from 46k-50k but usually I take profit somewhere near the bottom of these zones)
Larger TP at 59k
Small TP at 73-77K - This can be broken up into two where half is taken at the 60-68k resistance area.
This trade is likely to play out over the next 2-6 months.
REMEMBER THERE IS NEVER A RUSH. While this trade may be the start of a larger bullish wave towards all-time highs, if that is true there will be periods where price will pause and offer additional trade setups. If you are low risk and want probability more in your favour, you can always just wait for this.
The way you should think is - a trade missed is money saved.
With this trade, the stoploss would be placed at 33K REGARDLESS of the entry price. The difference between your entry price, and the stoploss is your risk. Sometimes in these cases where you must wait, price gets away from you - if we close this weeks candle at 41-44k then I would suggest not entering as the "risk" (with a stop at 33k) would be relatively high. However, if we hold anywhere between 38-41k this trade would be very viable.
Alternatively, 41-44k is a resistance area, and so if price reacts off of this area and retraces towards 39k over the course of next week then an entry there would also be viable, with the exact same stop as an entry following this weeks candle close.
Any price over the 41k point of control shits probability heavily in favour of further bullish action and so a weekly candle close above here would be heavily tainted bullish.
Profit-taking:
Apologies I may have misspoke above with to timid targets.
Areas for profit on this trade SHOULD IT EXECUTE would be -
Small TP at 46-50K (this is a resistance zone that stretched from 46k-50k but usually I take profit somewhere near the bottom of these zones)
Larger TP at 59k
Small TP at 73-77K - This can be broken up into two where half is taken at the 60-68k resistance area.
This trade is likely to play out over the next 2-6 months.
REMEMBER THERE IS NEVER A RUSH. While this trade may be the start of a larger bullish wave towards all-time highs, if that is true there will be periods where price will pause and offer additional trade setups. If you are low risk and want probability more in your favour, you can always just wait for this.
The way you should think is - a trade missed is money saved.
Had the sellers turned up and pushed the price back down to below 40k, that would have told us that people were interested in selling at these levels and so our future forecasts for where Bitcoin can go would need to be muted slightly.
With this close and break above 41k you have two options. Had you waited for Monday you could have entered and just taken the large distance between the entry at 42.5k and the stop nearly 10k below (very high imo). Alternatively, you could have waited.
With this second path, with the 41k resistance being broken up it now transitions into being a support. There are a million reasons for this, but one of the major ones is that people who SOLD the resistance because of the statistical probability of it potentially rejecting price on the lower time frames, will now look to reestablish their positions at an equal entry price compared to that they sold at.
Basically - "I sold at 41k but dam it look at price go! Well, if it goes back down to 41k I'll rebuy."
Because of this, patients and controlling your natural bias by understanding probability is crucial. A return to 41k EVEN IF we break up to the 50k area, is much more likely than just going straight line for all-time highs. As such, one of the many resistances above the 41k area WILL more likely than not, act as a resistance and again, more likely than not price will then consolidate and present another buy opportunity.
An example of this may be - we break above 41k, heading up to anywhere between 46-51k. Price then pauses, resting 41k or if it hit the higher ends of that zone 46kish and we get a hammer / pin bar on the daily timeframe signalling a long where you can use exactly the same strategy listed in this post to enter.
Ironically, while this might be the more annoying and emotional frustrating way to trade, waiting for this exact opportunity is by far the most efficient way of consistently growing your account size - even compared to "trying" to buy the bottom or taking the trade listed in this post as price has already proven that there is a potential bottom in and so you are jumping on board with more probability on your side.