Holding $47,400 was critical as a drop below could invalidate the structure. Note these structures are never the same so I'm basing form on data as it develops. Even the drop was deeper than I forecast in the initial setup. Like everything there are no guarantees.
TARGETS and my initial view on psychology:
- Target W = $49,990: A great phycological move by the market, expect to see a lot of euphoria then calls that the market is going to crash when it dips. Expecting this to be particularly on ALTs possibly an opportunity to drop some weaker options if these can't beat the last high.
- Target X = $46,800: A nervous market selling here wrongly targeting $44k. Expecting a difficult entry here as the market chops hard, large bounce up to $48,000 and back to $46k. One for the brave but possibly the best entry on ALTS
- Target Y = $49,000: Weak looking may bring in more sellers but lower as market getting wise to the manoeuvres. Risky short no guarantees that it doesn't break up here
- Target Z = $47,000: Final entry and a good long position for me - have seen a number of fakeouts recently so risk of being stopped-out on this entry
--- This gives me a date of 10th March for breakout - up (75%) or down (25%).
Well, there it is. The key takeaway from the last week was that the drop on Friday seemingly driven by the US Equities was part of this model (within a few percent!) which suggests it was all planned - I'll leave that for another day.
Some minor errors thus far in 2021 but while some of my charting has been 'imaginative', some great work on crypto including SXP and BTC imao (but still and amateur ;) Moving back to macro timeframes - I'll look at BTC again at the next ATH (or Rekt city).
Best, Hard Forky
- Yes, QE is driving up assets/commodities on the medium-term - this is signal.
- Most news events may spike price but they are not signal and do not impact the structure of these localised structures (but offer people on TV forums something to talk about to pass the time ;) good example is tesla's entry had a short term influence on price of a couple of days.
- 1.9T is a lot of money and might impact this immediate structure (although everyone was expecting the stimulus and is a matter of not if but when). The rally up to $50k is not because of the news today but it could mean that buying pressure means we break up early - always a factor. Watching the price action I have no reason to believe this is happening right now. On the macro however (and this is only something recently started to understand) Bitcoin is not coupled to the equity markets. Thus stimulus will extend price but (and this feels an odd thing to say) the rally would be happening anyway.
Do you think we'll have any correction short term? I was hoping to enter at the 45K mark. Now not so sure ....