After hitting the $47,400 target (see previous) I've adjusted the wedge to the latest data:
Holding $47,400 was critical as a drop below could invalidate the structure. Note these structures are never the same so I'm basing form on data as it develops. Even the drop was deeper than I forecast in the initial setup. Like everything there are no guarantees.
TARGETS and my initial view on psychology:
- Target W = $49,990: A great phycological move by the market, expect to see a lot of euphoria then calls that the market is going to crash when it dips. Expecting this to be particularly bearish on ALTs possibly an opportunity to drop some weaker options if these can't beat the last high.
- Target X = $46,800: A nervous market selling here wrongly targeting $44k. Expecting a difficult entry here as the market chops hard, large bounce up to $48,000 and back to $46k. One for the brave but possibly the best entry on ALTS
- Target Y = $49,000: Weak looking RSI may bring in more sellers but lower volatility as market getting wise to the manoeuvres. Risky short no guarantees that it doesn't break up here
- Target Z = $47,000: Final entry and a good long position for me - Wedges have seen a number of fakeouts recently so risk of being stopped-out on this entry
--- This gives me a date of 10th March for breakout - up (75%) or down (25%).
Well, there it is. The key takeaway from the last week was that the bearish drop on Friday seemingly driven by the US Equities was part of this model (within a few percent!) which suggests it was all planned - I'll leave that for another day.
Some minor errors thus far in 2021 but while some of my charting has been 'imaginative', some great work on crypto including SXP and BTC imao (but still and amateur ;) Moving back to macro timeframes - I'll look at BTC again at the next ATH (or Rekt city).
Best, Hard Forky
Holding $47,400 was critical as a drop below could invalidate the structure. Note these structures are never the same so I'm basing form on data as it develops. Even the drop was deeper than I forecast in the initial setup. Like everything there are no guarantees.
TARGETS and my initial view on psychology:
- Target W = $49,990: A great phycological move by the market, expect to see a lot of euphoria then calls that the market is going to crash when it dips. Expecting this to be particularly bearish on ALTs possibly an opportunity to drop some weaker options if these can't beat the last high.
- Target X = $46,800: A nervous market selling here wrongly targeting $44k. Expecting a difficult entry here as the market chops hard, large bounce up to $48,000 and back to $46k. One for the brave but possibly the best entry on ALTS
- Target Y = $49,000: Weak looking RSI may bring in more sellers but lower volatility as market getting wise to the manoeuvres. Risky short no guarantees that it doesn't break up here
- Target Z = $47,000: Final entry and a good long position for me - Wedges have seen a number of fakeouts recently so risk of being stopped-out on this entry
--- This gives me a date of 10th March for breakout - up (75%) or down (25%).
Well, there it is. The key takeaway from the last week was that the bearish drop on Friday seemingly driven by the US Equities was part of this model (within a few percent!) which suggests it was all planned - I'll leave that for another day.
Some minor errors thus far in 2021 but while some of my charting has been 'imaginative', some great work on crypto including SXP and BTC imao (but still and amateur ;) Moving back to macro timeframes - I'll look at BTC again at the next ATH (or Rekt city).
Best, Hard Forky
