hardforky

BTC - Bullish Pattern - Coordinates

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After hitting the $47,400 target (see previous) I've adjusted the wedge to the latest data:

Holding $47,400 was critical as a drop below could invalidate the structure. Note these structures are never the same so I'm basing form on data as it develops. Even the drop was deeper than I forecast in the initial setup. Like everything there are no guarantees.


TARGETS and my initial view on psychology:

- Target W = $49,990: A great phycological move by the market, expect to see a lot of euphoria then calls that the market is going to crash when it dips. Expecting this to be particularly bearish on ALTs possibly an opportunity to drop some weaker options if these can't beat the last high.
- Target X = $46,800: A nervous market selling here wrongly targeting $44k. Expecting a difficult entry here as the market chops hard, large bounce up to $48,000 and back to $46k. One for the brave but possibly the best entry on ALTS
- Target Y = $49,000: Weak looking RSI may bring in more sellers but lower volatility as market getting wise to the manoeuvres. Risky short no guarantees that it doesn't break up here
- Target Z = $47,000: Final entry and a good long position for me - Wedges have seen a number of fakeouts recently so risk of being stopped-out on this entry

--- This gives me a date of 10th March for breakout - up (75%) or down (25%).

Well, there it is. The key takeaway from the last week was that the bearish drop on Friday seemingly driven by the US Equities was part of this model (within a few percent!) which suggests it was all planned - I'll leave that for another day.

Some minor errors thus far in 2021 but while some of my charting has been 'imaginative', some great work on crypto including SXP and BTC imao (but still and amateur ;) Moving back to macro timeframes - I'll look at BTC again at the next ATH (or Rekt city).


Best, Hard Forky




Comments

Great analysis and good discussion! :-)
100 coins
Reply
Thanks very much for your detailed analysis! Always great to read.

How does the passing of the recent US stimulus package affect your analysis?
Reply
hardforky Samg36726
@Samg36726, Good question - I thought about this today...
- Yes, QE is driving up assets/commodities on the medium-term - this is signal.
- Most news events may spike price but they are not signal and do not impact the structure of these localised structures (but offer people on TV forums something to talk about to pass the time ;) good example is tesla's entry had a short term influence on price of a couple of days.
- 1.9T is a lot of money and might impact this immediate structure (although everyone was expecting the stimulus and is a matter of not if but when). The rally up to $50k is not because of the news today but it could mean that buying pressure means we break up early - always a factor. Watching the price action I have no reason to believe this is happening right now. On the macro however (and this is only something recently started to understand) Bitcoin is not coupled to the equity markets. Thus stimulus will extend price but (and this feels an odd thing to say) the rally would be happening anyway.
Reply
hardforky hardforky
@hardforky, $50k is target (I expect $51,200) - but I can't predict the future ;)
Reply
Samg36726 hardforky
@hardforky, - " Thus stimulus will extend price but (and this feels an odd thing to say) the rally would be happening anyway.". Very deep and interesting statement!

Do you think we'll have any correction short term? I was hoping to enter at the 45K mark. Now not so sure ....
Reply
hardforky Samg36726
@Samg36726, because of the stimulus? I think only one out of 20 FOMO trades worked out for me so i would not buy in here... this is what everyone else is doing :) I don't believe it will get much past $51k and will sell to play the downside. If it continues up and I'm wrong then I will buy in around $53k. There are smarter folk out there that will give you better advice.
Reply
Samg36726 hardforky
@hardforky, thanks for your input!
Reply
hardforky Samg36726
@Samg36726, It hit $51,200.. Anywhere up from here and this idea has failed.
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