Its_Gui
Short

BTC : The Paper Airplane fractal, get ready for landing

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello ! Second TV Idea in the pipe, my first one did react pretty good so I thought I would do some more.

I think the chart speaks for itself. I'm making these conclusions based on my own swing trading system that I will not fully disclose here. It works with a 86.2% success rate since October 2017. The fractal could indicate that further bearish momentum is in the works. This is why I would go short around 6800, or at maximum around 38.2 fib at 6880ish. Any stop loss around 7180 would be safe. I don't have any target down.. We could possibly simply retest the 6000 area. Maybe we break it, and things would get pretty ugly from there. I think we will see a clear direction on Monday, and then depending on the action, we can react accordingly.

The only thing making me tick is the amount of shorts currently opened. Check the BTCUSDSHORTS ticker for yourself. Now, when most people are saying "It's at all time high, we HAVE to get squeezed", even CNBC talking about it, I would like to point out the fact that in between April and now, there has been a really tremendous amount of people moving into leverage, just look at the overall BitMex volume . If there is further downwards momentum, I think shorts can reach 45K easily, why not even more, before getting some sort of squeeze.

Since we dropped in February, we have been making some sort of Wedge , or Triangle, that keeps making lower highs and lower lows. If we take in consideration the weekly Heikin Ashi, We have always seen a continuation from the top, to the bottom, and from bottom, to top. What I mean is that we never touched top, or bottom of the big wedge twice before reversing. We always touched the top, then made a new bottom, then made a new top... Etc. We perfectly touched 8.4 as new top of the wedge from the previous low at 5800. So we should see downwards momentum to find a new bottom. 5500 seems plausible. If we go up from here, it means a cycle is ending, and we have to chart again to find new scenarios. But again, if you're playing the odds on a statistical point of view, there is way more chances of us going down than going up.

I will update this idea as the trade develops. Remember that this is no financial advice, do your own research, have an open mind, and don't blindly listen strangers on the internet. Join the discussion ! Let's exchange ideas.




Comment: We are almost entering the zone where I would start to short, situated between 6800 and 6885. Once we are in this zone, the price action will be crucial to determine if the trade is a good one, with a nice risk-reward ratio.

I expect a strong resistance at the 38.2 fib level, a nice rejection followed by a bad daily close would make me very confident in opening a short position. Although, let's watch out so we don't get burned. This resistance can be crushed by a short positions closing momentum leading us around 7-7.1K area. They are still in a potential squeeze zone and this should not be ignored. Alts have been making good rallies as well suggesting that market is looking for better days. But would it be that easy ?

If momentum gathers and push prices up, I would adjust my target to enter at the top of the wedge around 7400 for a massive short position in this case, again, if we observe a nice rejection on top of the big wedge.
I give the fractal 2 to 3 days to play out. After that, it shall be considered void.
Remember not to jump in a trade to fast, and let the trade come to you instead. Always use longer timeframe indicators for extra safety.
Comment: Second scenario played out.
We are currently sitting in the area that I mentionned yesterday. Momentum was good and followed up well after breaking the fib with ease with a good amount of shorts being closed.
Fractal isn't playing out this time..! But as we had plans for every situation, we didn't open a short. The trade didn't come to us, so we didn't take it. I'll be looking out for new setups and will be making another analysis as soon as the situation is evolving.
Thanks for your support ! Trade safe.
Thank you very much for your great info!
+1 Reply
Its_Gui Badricio
@Badricio, Thank you for the feedback ! Glad that my work is resonating with you ! Trade safe. CR
Reply
I agree with the comparison to May/ June completely. I think we have only extended due to the short spike when Bitmex was down and some bulls or 'money' took advantage of it so it extended this run a little. I doubt we will even see 6800 again but I could be wrong... the bulls are starting to get exhausted and the RSI is beginning to show it. Once the bears know they have the best price available and it isn't going to head up further they will get back in.

'Short squeeze' is being misused far too much and erroneously so because its the 'mot du jour' (word of the day) and to those that think we have reached the bottom; there would be a considerably larger amount of volume and buying taking place if we had.

I believe we are in an ABC correction off the ATH and then we will head up for a wave 2.

Thanks for your post.
+1 Reply
bluesilver3 bluesilver3
Reply
dRends35 bluesilver3
@bluesilver3, Your post was good imo until the abc correction + moon arrow bit. Otherwise agree
Reply
Again, i agree with your post. However I wouldn't be surprised if there's a little twist in the tail. I think your fib target is good, but perhaps the market movers will do a 'look one way, go the other' and take out some short stops up to 7K before making the next impulsive move down.

I'm just guessing of course
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@dRends35, I think there are for more stops to take out to the downside at this point and it isn't worth chasing any up for a marginally better price when the 'money' can just push it down the second the buyers are exhausted which, by the decreasing volume and movements on the RSI seems imminent.
+1 Reply
Nice. I like your way of thinking. New follower
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Great update and advise! I tend to let the market come to me, not just a single trade. (; Thanks!

Cheers,
Eddie
+1 Reply
Its_Gui EduardZimmermann
@EduardZimmermann, Thank you Eddie, glad you're enjoying my work ! Your feedback is appreciated !
Trade safe.
CR
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