Our last outing on calling the bottom was quite successful. Though that particular bottom was not nearly this far out. It's taken much work to solve this Elliott Wave puzzle. We have had quite a complicated correction. However, I believe we are coming to an end. I should be asleep right now, but I noticed something from the related idea tagged below that caught my eye. In fact, that was because of my previous outing on calling the bottom. I couldn't sleep without charting it out. Feel free to comment your thoughts on the upcoming bottom, when it will hit and what the price will be. I'll go on record first:
I believe we will hit $5,000 on July 23rd at 0730 CST.
Everything else below is explaining how we've arrived where we are today. Feel free to ignore it or read it. In the meantime, join us on Telegram! t.me/joinchat/IDfLQ1DIHIv1HxVtxGefGw
Throughout this correction, we have seen some very complicated movements. The first five waves down from nearly 20,000 to 6,000 by itself was a confusing move. Most Elliott Wave charters were inclined to call that an ABC and call the correction over. Time wise, this did not make sense. We were correcting a multi-year move upward. This is not typically done in a 75 day period. If we analyze this move deeper, we can get a solid 12345, but waves 2 and 4 overlap. This only occurs in a leading diagonal or an ending diagonal. Being that it was the first move, it would clearly be a leading diagonal. This by itself means that we should label this move down as (A).
Following that, we should start a B movement. Again, this was tricky. Many thought we were starting an impulse or perhaps we had an ABC with a truncated C. For me, I did not have clarity on an Elliott Wave count until I saw this move clearly. I looked at the related idea "Let's Call the Bottom" and realized that my count probably wasn't accurate. In fact, the move in that count appeared to be a diagonal. Based on where it appeared in the count, we can determine that it must be a leading diagonal and must be an A wave.
In realizing these two counts, you can put the rest of the puzzle together around them.
So where does that leave us now? We started a C wave down from 10,000. If correct, my count would have the END of the correction at the end of this C wave. Does that mean that we would immediately moonshot?
Drum roll....
No. Sorry.
We have been slowing down and moving more and more sideways. You can easily compare the primary A down from 20,000 with the primary C down from 10,000 and see that we are moving nearly sideways in comparison. This is how bottoms are typically formed. We may see a small V once we reach the termination of wave C, but that does not mean that we would then moonshot past 20,000. It would likely start as a gradual and steady climb and over time we would again see the growth begin to go parabolic.
If July 23rd is the correct date for the completion of this correction, we are looking at just over 220 days of correction which accounts for approximately 26% of the time that we spent impulsing upward since the last major correction. This is actually still a bit on the low side. This is my ONLY hesitation with the count presented. I previously expected to be correcting much longer.
I will update the idea as I can with subwaves and refined targets/dates. Make sure to comment your guess for the bottom, date/time/price! I was about 24 hours off last time I posted this, but I wasn't predicting 3.5 weeks out either. Will be interesting to see how it plays out!
I believe we will hit $5,000 on July 23rd at 0730 CST.
Everything else below is explaining how we've arrived where we are today. Feel free to ignore it or read it. In the meantime, join us on Telegram! t.me/joinchat/IDfLQ1DIHIv1HxVtxGefGw
Throughout this correction, we have seen some very complicated movements. The first five waves down from nearly 20,000 to 6,000 by itself was a confusing move. Most Elliott Wave charters were inclined to call that an ABC and call the correction over. Time wise, this did not make sense. We were correcting a multi-year move upward. This is not typically done in a 75 day period. If we analyze this move deeper, we can get a solid 12345, but waves 2 and 4 overlap. This only occurs in a leading diagonal or an ending diagonal. Being that it was the first move, it would clearly be a leading diagonal. This by itself means that we should label this move down as (A).
Following that, we should start a B movement. Again, this was tricky. Many thought we were starting an impulse or perhaps we had an ABC with a truncated C. For me, I did not have clarity on an Elliott Wave count until I saw this move clearly. I looked at the related idea "Let's Call the Bottom" and realized that my count probably wasn't accurate. In fact, the move in that count appeared to be a diagonal. Based on where it appeared in the count, we can determine that it must be a leading diagonal and must be an A wave.
In realizing these two counts, you can put the rest of the puzzle together around them.
So where does that leave us now? We started a C wave down from 10,000. If correct, my count would have the END of the correction at the end of this C wave. Does that mean that we would immediately moonshot?
Drum roll....
No. Sorry.
We have been slowing down and moving more and more sideways. You can easily compare the primary A down from 20,000 with the primary C down from 10,000 and see that we are moving nearly sideways in comparison. This is how bottoms are typically formed. We may see a small V once we reach the termination of wave C, but that does not mean that we would then moonshot past 20,000. It would likely start as a gradual and steady climb and over time we would again see the growth begin to go parabolic.
If July 23rd is the correct date for the completion of this correction, we are looking at just over 220 days of correction which accounts for approximately 26% of the time that we spent impulsing upward since the last major correction. This is actually still a bit on the low side. This is my ONLY hesitation with the count presented. I previously expected to be correcting much longer.
I will update the idea as I can with subwaves and refined targets/dates. Make sure to comment your guess for the bottom, date/time/price! I was about 24 hours off last time I posted this, but I wasn't predicting 3.5 weeks out either. Will be interesting to see how it plays out!
Comment:
To clarify for all of those who would like to submit a guess, I'm looking for guesses for the NEXT bottom. I believe it will be the final bottom. If you don't think the next bottom will be the final bottom, feel free to chime in with that info as well. Or even if you think the "next" bottom already happened.
Comment:
If we flip the chart over to a log view and put the trendline on there that I like so much, it looks like this:
Comment:
One issue that was brought forward with my count is the subwave count of the wave 3 in the primary wave (A) (The first move down from 20,000 to 6,000 where I'm calling for a leading diagonal).
A leading diagonal can be a 3-3-3-3-3 structure which means that this wave 3 becomes easy to count. A count specifically for this wave A would be as pictured.
A leading diagonal can be a 3-3-3-3-3 structure which means that this wave 3 becomes easy to count. A count specifically for this wave A would be as pictured.
Comment:
This count may have just wrecked my time and value estimates haha This is a HIGHLY valid count for this current leg. In fact, I believe I prefer this. If we see a reaction at the indicated target, this would become my primary and new low target would be around 5200 earlier in July followed by a bounce and one last wave down.
Comment:
Based on the current rejection area, I'm back to leaning toward the initial count in this post as my primary.
