Hi guys! at weekend times, BTC soared! it was difficult to really judge whether it would go, anyhow if you guys got in at 64levels congrats! anyway, i shorted btc from 6770, sold a while ago, and went long from 66. btc is at very timid times. i just have some scenarios and thoughts that might happen next week.
below is the chart.
so we are inside a rising wedge, with top at 7.0~7.1k. we are on the road to it. ok, so there are mixed signals, and many TA's are staying out of this market, because indecisionis still put, volatility is extreme.
even though, i think this week is still bullish. daily candle, closing above the baseline, making highs...of course, at the same time making bear div on indicators.
so you see we have a bullish ichimoku cloud, green cloud, which we have not had past months. bulls have a good chance to break above, and be supported by the green clouds!
RSI daily surpassed 50, now little retracing, but it will test upper levels so 6700~6800 dollars btc, you will see those numbers this week. stoch rsi is overbought, wants to deadcross, so, a retracement, or a heavy drop will happen in the coming week. also, volumes are bearish, not coming up, but, bull runs often happen at low volumes so i will not believe so much at current level.
so, in cotract below are the scenario, that i think will happen until sep 3rd~4th. that means, SEP 3~4TH, probably this week would show where BTC will be headed in September. so coming week is very important! 4 scenarios~
1. 67~68 double, triple+ tops
-retrace to 64 levels->come back again to make HH or LH->go down below 62 even.
2. 69~7.1 top and fall
-retrace to 62~63 levels, or below
3. 7.1k and above(closing in daily candle above)
-going up, up 7.5k+
4.fall before touching the top line of rising wedge like 67~69
->falling wedge pattern from 6~6.2k target 7.1k+
number 4, we also have a possibility of a failing wedge like last time.
so, if we do not complete the wedge and fall down from like 67 or 68, this idea can be valid, so keep an eye on it. it should make a higher high at around 6k and come back up.
so guys i think, short term this needs a little bit more heavy retracement in coming days after some peaks. trying above 7.1k, i think we need little more oversold situation to keep the gauge up. because the bulls would not want to come back to 6kzone, after surpassing 7.1k. they would do the retracement firsthand to recharge. so trading plans are
1/ open shorts
67~69.8
stoploss:7150
target:6.3~4k/maybe 6.2k
2. open longs(for scalping)
this will vary time by time. now supported by 6.55k, but it will revisit 6.48 if the bounce from here do not go over 6888.
buying low mid 66 levels, high 65 levels, you can scalp maybe 80~100dollars.
below is the chart.
so we are inside a rising wedge, with top at 7.0~7.1k. we are on the road to it. ok, so there are mixed signals, and many TA's are staying out of this market, because indecisionis still put, volatility is extreme.
even though, i think this week is still bullish. daily candle, closing above the baseline, making highs...of course, at the same time making bear div on indicators.
so you see we have a bullish ichimoku cloud, green cloud, which we have not had past months. bulls have a good chance to break above, and be supported by the green clouds!
RSI daily surpassed 50, now little retracing, but it will test upper levels so 6700~6800 dollars btc, you will see those numbers this week. stoch rsi is overbought, wants to deadcross, so, a retracement, or a heavy drop will happen in the coming week. also, volumes are bearish, not coming up, but, bull runs often happen at low volumes so i will not believe so much at current level.
so, in cotract below are the scenario, that i think will happen until sep 3rd~4th. that means, SEP 3~4TH, probably this week would show where BTC will be headed in September. so coming week is very important! 4 scenarios~
1. 67~68 double, triple+ tops
-retrace to 64 levels->come back again to make HH or LH->go down below 62 even.
2. 69~7.1 top and fall
-retrace to 62~63 levels, or below
3. 7.1k and above(closing in daily candle above)
-going up, up 7.5k+
4.fall before touching the top line of rising wedge like 67~69
->falling wedge pattern from 6~6.2k target 7.1k+
number 4, we also have a possibility of a failing wedge like last time.
so, if we do not complete the wedge and fall down from like 67 or 68, this idea can be valid, so keep an eye on it. it should make a higher high at around 6k and come back up.
so guys i think, short term this needs a little bit more heavy retracement in coming days after some peaks. trying above 7.1k, i think we need little more oversold situation to keep the gauge up. because the bulls would not want to come back to 6kzone, after surpassing 7.1k. they would do the retracement firsthand to recharge. so trading plans are
1/ open shorts
67~69.8
stoploss:7150
target:6.3~4k/maybe 6.2k
2. open longs(for scalping)
this will vary time by time. now supported by 6.55k, but it will revisit 6.48 if the bounce from here do not go over 6888.
buying low mid 66 levels, high 65 levels, you can scalp maybe 80~100dollars.
Trade active:
OK GUYS. I think BTC needs some retracement to try 68. now making a small wedge, overall bearish in indicators, i guess we can target 64 zone, or 63 zone. so orange boxes are for loading up(6700~6720, 6760~80, 6840+), at the moment 68 zone is doubtful however, we must keep safe. yellow boxes are targets, i think 64 zone should be reached, 63 and 62 we need to see. stoploss for this trade is 6890.
Comment:
If we see retracement in coming day you can sell your shorts at 6520 or 6488. It could bounce hard from there to 6600~6650ish again.
Comment:
Alts look different suddenly. Many alts are trying to break resistance upwards.for shorters sropploss is 6890,but if 6780 breaks above we might see upper zone.you can set your short stop to 6780 now.
Comment:
Market is boring, but it will make a move. so i think, the positions above are pretty much safe, in such an indecision market, it is safe to short at the top, go long at the bottom. now, btc is bullish, but there are chances that it give a retracement to 6520~ if so, open long, sell short! if btc goes up, open short. good luck~
Comment:
if we break below 6650, it is almost confirmed that we visit low 6500ish, or even 64 where we can sell out shorts. even though 6750 got rejected, it may get in back at the wedge so we are not yet safe.
Comment:
I added 69.6 on my shorts, i will add up more at 7.1, and even 7.4.7.5 if it comes up.
guys, this is a bearish wedge, that will break to the bottom at some point, this is not the start of the bull run.
guys, this is a bearish wedge, that will break to the bottom at some point, this is not the start of the bull run.
Comment:
guys so btc is retracing. if it falls below 6750/6700, this is clearly a bull trap,trapping longs at high level, if it defends 67/68, tries to go for 7.1k, my scenario 2 will be in play. problem is, the last hours they had to overcome 69.6! daily 50, 60 MA's are all lined up there, so if this is a bull run, they had to surpass those levels with heavy volume spike. so a bull run is something i call, when it turns heavy resistance to all supports. we had a spark to 69.5 but we have NO moving averages or resistance broken. so let's see.
Comment:
so guys, possibility of another falling wedge, like last time could happen, just a scenario, price went up, rsi didn't make higher high, like last time. doesn't mean it happens, just trying to make more scenarios. only thing different now is that we broke 6850 resistance, last time, we didn't.