I wanted to start by saying that I am long-term bullish on Bitcoin. However, I am bearish in the short and medium term based on current price action.
Here is my macro analysis, purely based on price action and retail trader tehncial narratives. Keeping the chart clean and simple. Although it is unwise to always trade based on technical indicators, we should not ignore them. These narratives tell a story, and many people are emotionally attached to narratives. We are reading TradingView after all ;).
Over the next months, the price will correct down into the 28,000-30,000 zone, which will make the market sentiment seem like the price is going back to 10,000. Only then, a true relief rally will come. This rally will take us back to the 50,000 region, which is an emotional and technical support (now resistance) level. There will be a heavy rejection here, and bears will claim that the price action has formed a "Head and Shoulders Pattern". From here, the price will drop back down to the low 30,000 region for one final retest.
I have heard from some close contacts that September 2022 is a point of interest. Take this as you will. In my mind, this is a perfect setup for one final fakeout and liquidity grab. Then the real rally will come, back above all time highs. Any price above 70,000 would be an excellent point to sell and look for an attractive re-entry. Patience is key.
The current sentiment brings flashbacks to people claiming that a 20,000 Bitcoin would crash down to 1,000. Look where we are now.
Thanks for reading.
Here is my macro analysis, purely based on price action and retail trader tehncial narratives. Keeping the chart clean and simple. Although it is unwise to always trade based on technical indicators, we should not ignore them. These narratives tell a story, and many people are emotionally attached to narratives. We are reading TradingView after all ;).
Over the next months, the price will correct down into the 28,000-30,000 zone, which will make the market sentiment seem like the price is going back to 10,000. Only then, a true relief rally will come. This rally will take us back to the 50,000 region, which is an emotional and technical support (now resistance) level. There will be a heavy rejection here, and bears will claim that the price action has formed a "Head and Shoulders Pattern". From here, the price will drop back down to the low 30,000 region for one final retest.
I have heard from some close contacts that September 2022 is a point of interest. Take this as you will. In my mind, this is a perfect setup for one final fakeout and liquidity grab. Then the real rally will come, back above all time highs. Any price above 70,000 would be an excellent point to sell and look for an attractive re-entry. Patience is key.
The current sentiment brings flashbacks to people claiming that a 20,000 Bitcoin would crash down to 1,000. Look where we are now.
Thanks for reading.