I have not made my posts public in a while but mostly keep my videos for my community in our private channel and in our YT channel. The past 1-2 months I'd mentioned that if $6000 gets broken then $10k to $12k region would be our next targets based off levels on the weekly and monthly and previous large resistance and supply levels back from 2018. With that being said, it never hurts, as a trader, to look at scenarios that may go against the general consensus of thinking. If anything, one should spend more time trying to invalidate your own theories of where you could go wrong and then go from there. So here I've put together the Wyckoff Distribution method in which I believe if $9000-$9500 is the 'Top' then we may be in the midst of a larger Wyckoff Distribution phase events. I've also proven in my YT videos that historically every asset that has recovered from a bear market has big up surges in price action and then a larger collapse back towards the lows or close to it. See the Nikkei and Gold charts below.
The following is a a description and explanation from Stock Charts to explain each event and Phase psychology.
PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR .
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the of the BC . An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR .
SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR , usually occurring on increased spread and . The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.
LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR . It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.
Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax ( BC ). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and a secondary test ( ST ) of the BC , often upon diminished . However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and ; less upward progress is made on each rally before significant supply emerges.
In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, Phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and action to the downside). However, Phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top.
Phase B: The function of Phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about Phase B in distribution are similar to those made for Phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and to the downside.
Phase C: In distribution, Phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR . This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.
Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY.
Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST . In this case, Phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR .
Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble.
Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.
Supply and Demand Analysis
Analysis of on bar charts, through examination of and price movements, represents one of the central pillars of the Wyckoff method. For example, a price bar that has wide spread, closing at a high well above those of the previous several bars and accompanied by higher-than-average , suggests the presence of demand. Similarly, a high-volume price bar with wide spread, closing at a low well below the lows of prior bars, suggests the presence of supply. These simple examples belie the extent of the subtleties and nuances of such analysis. For instance, labeling and understanding the implications of Wyckoff events and phases in trading ranges, as well as ascertaining when the price is ready to be marked up or down, is based largely on the correct assessment of .
Wyckoff's first and third laws described above ( and Effort versus Result) embody this core approach. Conventional wisdom of much (and basic economic theory) accepts one of the obvious insights of the law of Supply and Demand: when demand to buy shares exceeds sell orders at any time, price will advance to a level where demand decreases and/or supply increases to create a new (transient) equilibrium. The converse is also true: when sell orders (supply) exceed buy orders (demand) at any time, equilibrium will be restored (temporarily) by a price decline to a level where are in balance.
Wyckoff's third law (Effort versus Result) involves identifying price-volume convergences and divergences to anticipate potential turning points in price trends. For example, when (Effort) and price (Result) both increase substantially, they are in harmony, suggesting that Demand will likely continue to propel price higher. In some instances, however, may increase, possibly even substantially, but the price does not follow, producing only a marginal change at the close. If we observe this price-volume behavior in a reaction to support in an accumulation trading range, this indicates absorption of supply by large interests, and is considered . Similarly, huge on a rally with minimal price advance in a distribution trading range demonstrates a stock's inability to rally because of the presence of significant supply, also from big institutions.
The Nikkei (Tokyo Stock Exchange) experienced the same bubble like explosion that BTC did then a retest of the prev. lows
The GLD market looks eerily similar to BTC's current rebound market too.
Be wise, my friends. Don't get slaughtered. Stay ahead of the curb by questioning your own beliefs and taking profits often. Cheers!