BTC Bloodbath over? | BTC 5500 called in June | Next 3000-4900
Good morning TV,
Thank you always for watching and supporting my work. It truly means a lot. If you've been watching me for a few months now you will have known that this current price action movement was inevitable and the people feeding you hopium were going to run out of it. Now here we are, back to reality. Reality is this, we were in a market that consecutively pushed us to lower highs, the steam had left the market, there were no new entrants to be found, there were no institutional saviors coming anytime soon, ETF's weren't getting approved this year (maybe not next either), and the money was basically being recycled in the market between the newbies and the veterans. If you paid attention to the basics of technicals - and this subject truly is not complicated, people make it that way for no reason - you would have known at least through watching my videos that this form of capitulation was due at some point. It wasn't a question of IF rather of WHEN. And it happened. Now if you are at a loss or don't know what to do, please keep watching my analysis and keep asking questions! I am here to help you build back your portfolio and recoup losses. My goal is to help all of us learn technicals, make money, or at least stop you from losing it.
Hope you enjoy the analysis and wait for more updates!
Forever grateful,
Amol
Thank you always for watching and supporting my work. It truly means a lot. If you've been watching me for a few months now you will have known that this current price action movement was inevitable and the people feeding you hopium were going to run out of it. Now here we are, back to reality. Reality is this, we were in a market that consecutively pushed us to lower highs, the steam had left the market, there were no new entrants to be found, there were no institutional saviors coming anytime soon, ETF's weren't getting approved this year (maybe not next either), and the money was basically being recycled in the market between the newbies and the veterans. If you paid attention to the basics of technicals - and this subject truly is not complicated, people make it that way for no reason - you would have known at least through watching my videos that this form of capitulation was due at some point. It wasn't a question of IF rather of WHEN. And it happened. Now if you are at a loss or don't know what to do, please keep watching my analysis and keep asking questions! I am here to help you build back your portfolio and recoup losses. My goal is to help all of us learn technicals, make money, or at least stop you from losing it.
Hope you enjoy the analysis and wait for more updates!
Forever grateful,
Amol
Comment:
White rising trend line since June was a 5 month process of higher lows - taken out in 1 day. The black boxes above will now pose are resistance going forward. A significant supply zone to get past.
Comment:
Currently meeting 100 weekly MA and bouncing off it. Let's see if we fall further and then use that as resistance toward the 200 weekly MA + rising trend line. If this happens over the next 1 month, it'd be a perfect capitulation to strike the end of the bear market because new bulls + fresh demand would be enough to absorb all the supply and refuse to let prices fall further.
Comment:
Free trade: QKC/BTC
Instructions
Targets: fibs
Stop: 1-2% below gold line
Enjoy :)
Instructions
Targets: fibs
Stop: 1-2% below gold line
Enjoy :)
Comment:
That red zone will be the area to watch going forward if today's candle closes like a hammer and tomorrow's candle opens and closes above prev. day's close. The red zone will be an area of significant resistance. And when we face it, then we will see if strong demand got their hands on enough BTC and will absorb more on the way up and break through walls OR if we're going to have another leg down.
Comment:
Here's something fun:
The final Mercury Retrograde of 2018 is coming up from November 17th through December 6th.
I'm no hocus pocus believer but I've seen substantial evidence from traders around the world swear by it. I have never trade off it but I do like to keep an eye on it. Let's go through it: You will see the retrogrades color coded, the left vertical denotes the start of the cycle, the circular shape denotes the slowing down of the planet (middle of the cycle), and the next vertical is the end of the retrograde.
Thus far my analysis of the retrogrades since last year is this: At the beginning of the retrograde - whether the cycle is bullish (2017) or bearish (2018) - the cycle continues with the first vertical. The middle circular shape puts a stop to the continuation and slows it down for the upcoming reversal. The second vertical of the retrograde cycle starts the reversal with a subsequent push for several days/weeks beyond. If we were to follow this patterned logic here's my prediction as per the cycle:
Nov 17 - Nov 25 (Market keeps falling toward $5000/$4800)
Nov 26 - Nov 30 (Market finds bottom and floats sideways)
Dec 1 - Dec 6 (Market reverses and heads toward $6000)
Dec 7 - Beyond (Slingshot and rejection near mid $6000 level)
The above projection is shown by the ghost bar patter, white bars.
The final Mercury Retrograde of 2018 is coming up from November 17th through December 6th.
I'm no hocus pocus believer but I've seen substantial evidence from traders around the world swear by it. I have never trade off it but I do like to keep an eye on it. Let's go through it: You will see the retrogrades color coded, the left vertical denotes the start of the cycle, the circular shape denotes the slowing down of the planet (middle of the cycle), and the next vertical is the end of the retrograde.
Thus far my analysis of the retrogrades since last year is this: At the beginning of the retrograde - whether the cycle is bullish (2017) or bearish (2018) - the cycle continues with the first vertical. The middle circular shape puts a stop to the continuation and slows it down for the upcoming reversal. The second vertical of the retrograde cycle starts the reversal with a subsequent push for several days/weeks beyond. If we were to follow this patterned logic here's my prediction as per the cycle:
Nov 17 - Nov 25 (Market keeps falling toward $5000/$4800)
Nov 26 - Nov 30 (Market finds bottom and floats sideways)
Dec 1 - Dec 6 (Market reverses and heads toward $6000)
Dec 7 - Beyond (Slingshot and rejection near mid $6000 level)
The above projection is shown by the ghost bar patter, white bars.
Comment:
BTC Inverse H&S being created - we may have a temp. bottom here. Long opportunity for a 2.5% gain possible as listed. If price gets above green line you can add to your long and take it toward the red supply block. Stop should be 1-2% below RS wick low.
Comment:
Nov 16, 2018 Update Video
BTC analysis for daily chart:
We are printing a red 9 on the TD with no signs of reversal just yet. The hammer would have been bullish if we start climbing at least $100-200 in price. For now, it looks more bearish.
Weekly analysis:
The weekly candle closes in 3 days and we are fast approaching a close below the $5500 order block. If this happens then the prediction of the next OB will come true fast: $3000-$4800.
BTC analysis for daily chart:
We are printing a red 9 on the TD with no signs of reversal just yet. The hammer would have been bullish if we start climbing at least $100-200 in price. For now, it looks more bearish.
Weekly analysis:
The weekly candle closes in 3 days and we are fast approaching a close below the $5500 order block. If this happens then the prediction of the next OB will come true fast: $3000-$4800.
Comment:
BTC double topped it seems and can't break above $5600 level successfully. If price breaks below $5408 this would invalidate the inverse h&s pattern and we'd most definitely retest the bottom price of yesterday at $5188 (black horizontal). If the bounce from there is weak once more that means we won't W bottom, meaning we might break that support. This would most likely trigger a capitulation-like selling into the high $4000s ($4500-$4900). The daily chart looks increasingly bearish. Will update further.
Comment:
Took 2.8% profit from GVT in less than 45 mins today. Keep an eye on this one if BTC or ETH falls, GVT bulls like defending their prices and it usually yields in quick and easy gains. Will focus on fibs listed:
Comment:
BTC is looking weak on the daily chart. New demand was unable to push the prices up. The large wicks show absorption but not enough to drive up the price. Just enough to hold it from falling further, for now. This is not a bullish sign. Will have to first see if we break below the higher low of $5408. If that breaks then $5188 will definitely be retested. And unless there's more demand waiting there to create a W bottom, we will fall below that, and maybe head to high $4000s.
Comment:
Alright folks: You see that blue line right there - $5335. You see the black line right above it - $5408. That shows that price has been doing well to create higher lows -higher lows mean exactly that, lows that are not lower than that big wick touching 5188- black horizontal.
If price breaks below 5408 you have to make sure it will invalidate the higher lows pattern by a good margin, thus 5335. So if it touches that 5335 then it'll definitely go lower. And at this point you're out of the market waiting for a better entry.
If price breaks below 5408 you have to make sure it will invalidate the higher lows pattern by a good margin, thus 5335. So if it touches that 5335 then it'll definitely go lower. And at this point you're out of the market waiting for a better entry.
Comment:
It seems we may be entering the beginning of capitulation folks. Tall bodied bearish candles, high volume for multiple days and no sign of letting up. We have been waiting on this for months and now it's here. If you have prepared for this moment and been patiently waiting with us- pat yourself on the back. You just endured a bear market that had a 50-90% draw down across the entire space.
Comment:
Here's the BTC long-term view. I actually have the 786 fib at $4393 because I take the start of the fib from the bottom of the 2014-2015 bear market - $165.39. You can see that each bull run has broken below the 786 and had a 93% retrace in 2011 (top $32, bottom $2) and an 85% retrace in 2015 (top $1181, bottom $165). If we were to map these % retraces in BTC they'd be $3000 and below from $20k ATH. I'd say BTC would be even safe at $3000 and as low as $1200 (worst case scenario).
Comment:
Remember this chart? We drew this for fun but boy does it look like it's playing out almost perfectly.
Join our Crypto movement with Alpha Trades