LifeIsABullTrap
Short

Perfect Bubble in the making?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
43554 59 217
This is the result in the drawing of some free hand trajectories.

With names like DanV predicting sub 300 prices as well, and with consideration of the last rise to 680. This might just be the perfect bubble in the making.

And looking at it from this perspective, really not that far fetched.

Taking the current Fundamentals in combination with relative sentiment into account. There really isn't a whole lot to be bullish about in the mid- (1-5 month) term.
interesting trend line. I wouldn't be mad if this is the case, would mean lots of opportunity to buy cheap coins throughout the rest of this year
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It also seems to be the case that general sentiments subsides a lot slower than was originally expected.
Originally it was expected that the 994 peak in January was the bull trap. Seeing how fast sentiments had risen in november and december in a bullish fashion. Because of this it was also implicitly expected that the bearish sentiment that followed would subside very quickly after this.

However, the bullish sentiment largely didn't dissapear, even after the bubble-pop. What we are seeing now is bulls coming to their senses and realizing the market and bitcoin fundamentals in general (like adaption) is not a matter of weeks or months but easily 1 to 2 years. Slowly making a lot more bulls (at least mid term) bearish. And subsequently explaining and creating the perfect bubble pattern we see above.

Markets really are emotion. Collective emotion just changes a lot slower than individual traders tend to expect.
+6 Reply
nice chart the psychology of a market.
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BTC has a tendency to test the old ATH before starting a true bull trend and usually ends up looking like the bubble pattern when complete. So this lines up well with that. Cheap coins! =)
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Great work!
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amazing... the new question is: when to buy? :)
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ChartArt erelerel
Maybe today. The price has fallen to $216 on Bitstamp.
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Qiuness ChartArt
yeah.. good question indeed. Anyone bought some longs? I have a feeling 200ish might be tested
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wonky_tonky erelerel
anything below 200 sounds legit to buy
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amazing... the new question is: when to buy? :)
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this is playing out very well so far. Put your buys somewhere at 180-200s and enjoy your gains.
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Hello. First of all, congratulations for your analysis.
If BTC will hit 200 (more or less), and then it will follow the "Healthy growth" trend, which are your predictions for the price?
Thanks!
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Like the 'healthy growth' line says, I expect a very slow 2015. I feel like I might have drawn that line to steep as it is even (excluding obvious volatility swings above and below). But main thing now is to get a convincing bottom in, and we'll see from there.
One thing is certain to me and that is that this is not the end of bitcoin. Will we ever see a new ATH? I don't know. But it's not like bitcoin will be at 0 in 2 months (or even 2 years).
+3 Reply
Nice chart of the bubble, the may rally is very good identified as the bull trap phase and 200' looks very well to be the bottom. However, in capitulation phase, I would expect a fast panic that could push for a short time under 200, let us say 180$ with possible some margin calls being involved also. That fast surge ould be great place to place bids imo. Anyway, congrats with the chart! Cheers!
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perfect :)
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LifeIsABullTrap wonky_tonky
Well almost. Should have drawn in more aggressively ;)
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you are awesome :D
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Qiuness lion.din.7
now what... i read 2 analysis that say retest at least...
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more down. Don't think bottom is in yet.
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Great chart! this is showing the bull trap so fine! :)
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nice chart look this day will be up and flying like this chart in 2016 :D
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nice chart.
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for a 6 month forecast **in bitcoin-land**, this has been so spot-on it's spooky
+9 Reply
WOW...I'm impressed . To say you were spot on is an understatement. Well done
+2 Reply
I agree. Clicking play 6 months later was pretty fun to watch, especially after getting long during the Jan crapout.
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So beautiful...
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Wow this is just scarily accurate. Well done sir.
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Zoltan mariodian
Relax he knows what he is doing =))
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Qiuness Zoltan
yeah well this chart does not account for the very probable double bottom @ 155
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Chart still good.
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expect some updates.
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You are Jesus
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Nice work
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WOW! This is great :)
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fucking turn off the hacks
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And Bitcoin was considered a joke back then, the perfect bubble shows it is not after all. What's interesting here is that when you throw an instrument to the masses the same psychological pattern occurs, like it was mathematically inevitable. All natural systems seem to have this pattern, be it rats, bacteria, fungus... When there is blind force at work, this is the result,.. so much about human intelligence. :)
+2 Reply
I guess you weren't kidding. Your prediction is accurate. Keep up the good work.
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...
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hey did you checked the CNY/BTC Graph? Bitcoin going to 130$ today!! http://bit.ly/1IbYTzs
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No, we gotta hit 99 first.. Astle says so.. peppering his angus
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Excellent job sir.
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This is absolutely incredible, you have been spot on even with your scribbly, i can do nothing less than to bow to you! Amazing!
+2 Reply
This was literally the most obviously easy way things could turn out (as in: I'm not a genius). And, they did.
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MEKhoko PRO LifeIsABullTrap
Any chance you'd post an updated chart with the same trendlines or a side-by-side? This is great
+1 Reply
Nm
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As simple as it can be, this is one of the best graphs I had seen. It perfectly follows the trading psychology cycle.
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YES ! That's my recent analysis:
Bitcoin: A Longterm Outlook
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beautiful
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Actually not that far off, amazing, since this chart is so old.
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Damn!
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Nostradamus
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this is awesome!
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after 2 years still accurate
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we need to know what happens next Nostradamus!
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you cant make this up....
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LifeIsABullTrap traderjoess
@traderjoess, I didn't. It's textbook bubble :)
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We didn't hit a new paradigm. Just nearly tapped the all-time high.
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Can you make a new one for 2017 please
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