Bitcoin could have formed its bottom (right upper chart) as we might have had a similar build up in 2017 (right lower chart). The time of that correction we had CME shorting BTC for a while, but eventually ended up heading higher. Technically we have just pierced the 21 EMA, but are still largely above the 50 and 200 EMA. In the old set up we had touched the 50 EMA before going up, and in the current scenario we could have a low not lower than 40K, probably a limit of 44K, as we can separate the previous high of 42K in a last 5th Elliott wave.
Present fractal built 20 days ago is imo not validated as an official H&S, as the left shoulder is out of proportion and functions more as support. We had a quite sudden sell off before being able to reach the 60K and we are building support between the 45K and 50K level. Nevertheless we must have a sudden increase of buying volume to get above the 50K to visit immediately the 60K level stay there and go up or build a larger correction as the previous one from 41K till 30K. Though if we don't revisit the previous high of 40K, we will certainly see a significant upward move which will be even more urgent than previous ones. If that happens a larger correction will happen on a higher level but will be much heavier and correct the run up from 5K till.. ?
Another comparison on the weekly timeframe on the left, I can briefly inform that this is the logarithmic chart of the total bitcoin chart clearly moving within an ascending parallel where we haven't reached the upper side of it which implies a level of 200K ! This seems quite unnatural on a regular chart, but not excluded and certainly possibly over a longer period of time.
Above we can conclude that we are in a 3th cycle, from which previous cycle had an exact timeframe of 4 years between old and new ATH's. If this is correct we would have a bullrun until end of this year.. Corrections can always happen in between with retractions of 20-40% but never more in this period of time.
I use repeating patterns and pattern recognition which is in my opinion most valuable and objective, certainly in the same chart within different cycles. Repeating patterns can occur in a smaller timeframe within the Elliott cycle itself, but only twice in my experience. A tird has mostly an opposite effect.
Check my previous charts where I indicated 2 identical fractals in different coins as matic, ethereum and cardano if I'm not wrong.. go look for yourself. After those double fractals we had an insane move upwards.
On the present bitcoin chart we could have 2 fractals playing out and pave the way for a violent 5th wave which could be a target of 80 or 100K.
Still we have to be cautious as patterns can change fast and we must be flexible if the set up turns more bearish than bullish.
Though I am bullish on the midterm and on the short term if we take out the 50K level.
Above we have an increase of bitcoin dominance overall, as we had a peak of 2/3th dominance towards altcoins. Altcoins could outperform bitcoin from now on. Also important are those who have been strong during this correction, eg. Cardano and all 2nd layer solutions. Defi has had quite a hit, but we never know because it is still a young market.
Present fractal built 20 days ago is imo not validated as an official H&S, as the left shoulder is out of proportion and functions more as support. We had a quite sudden sell off before being able to reach the 60K and we are building support between the 45K and 50K level. Nevertheless we must have a sudden increase of buying volume to get above the 50K to visit immediately the 60K level stay there and go up or build a larger correction as the previous one from 41K till 30K. Though if we don't revisit the previous high of 40K, we will certainly see a significant upward move which will be even more urgent than previous ones. If that happens a larger correction will happen on a higher level but will be much heavier and correct the run up from 5K till.. ?
Another comparison on the weekly timeframe on the left, I can briefly inform that this is the logarithmic chart of the total bitcoin chart clearly moving within an ascending parallel where we haven't reached the upper side of it which implies a level of 200K ! This seems quite unnatural on a regular chart, but not excluded and certainly possibly over a longer period of time.
Above we can conclude that we are in a 3th cycle, from which previous cycle had an exact timeframe of 4 years between old and new ATH's. If this is correct we would have a bullrun until end of this year.. Corrections can always happen in between with retractions of 20-40% but never more in this period of time.
I use repeating patterns and pattern recognition which is in my opinion most valuable and objective, certainly in the same chart within different cycles. Repeating patterns can occur in a smaller timeframe within the Elliott cycle itself, but only twice in my experience. A tird has mostly an opposite effect.
Check my previous charts where I indicated 2 identical fractals in different coins as matic, ethereum and cardano if I'm not wrong.. go look for yourself. After those double fractals we had an insane move upwards.
On the present bitcoin chart we could have 2 fractals playing out and pave the way for a violent 5th wave which could be a target of 80 or 100K.
Still we have to be cautious as patterns can change fast and we must be flexible if the set up turns more bearish than bullish.
Though I am bullish on the midterm and on the short term if we take out the 50K level.
Above we have an increase of bitcoin dominance overall, as we had a peak of 2/3th dominance towards altcoins. Altcoins could outperform bitcoin from now on. Also important are those who have been strong during this correction, eg. Cardano and all 2nd layer solutions. Defi has had quite a hit, but we never know because it is still a young market.
Comment:
sorry I meant 'decrease; of bitcoin dominance...
Comment: