JefeCaan

Bitcoin Unbiased Analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Let's forget about being bullish or bearish for a while. Let us look at this chart and see what if Bitcoin has bottomed and what if Bitcoin has not bottomed. Both the bulls and bears agree on some sort of pullback short term regardless of whether they think the bear market is over or not.

If Bitcoin Has Bottomed (2015):

If we assume that Bitcoin has bottomed, this would mean that we are in the 2015 part of the last market cycle following the candle marked "2" on the chart. This means that we have five more months to buy Bitcoin at current prices so there is no reason at all to FOMO into the market. If you believe Bitcoin has bottomed, you can embrace this as an opportunity to accumulate for long term.

If Bitcoin Has Not Bottomed (2014):

If we assume that Bitcoin has not bottomed, this would mean that we are in the 2014 part of the last market cycle following the candle market "1" on the chart. This means that we have less than a month to get out of Bitcoin before it begins its next downtrend. In other words, there is every reason to be fearful and get out of the market. If you believe that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed and it is likely to fall further, this would be the best time to short sell, sell or at least refrain from buying.

Conclusion:

Regardless of whether Bitcoin has bottomed or not, this is not a good time to buy. In case Bitcoin has bottomed, we have five more months to buy at current prices. If Bitcoin has not bottomed, this is our last chance to get out before it crashes again. In other words, from a risk/reward standpoint it makes every bit of sense to sell now and wait for confirmation. If Bitcoin does not fall further in the next 2-3 months, we can buy again assuming the bottom is in.
Agree 100% - This area is hugely unpredictable; given the suspect nature of how we got here, I wouldn’t give great odds that this is the start of the next bull run, which everyone is so desperate for ...... Just feels like a perfect storm is building.
+3 Reply
Excellent post and excellent advice. The problem here on tv is that most on here won't listen to you because they're junkie traders looking for a moon shot. You are 100% correct - bull or bear this is a "trap" market right here in this area. @dRends35 @NoobOfTheMonth @MrRenev
+11 Reply
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