Cryptorphic

#BTC/USD : All Questions Answered!! EXIT or HOLD ?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Thanks for coming by to this update.
Before you start reading please hit that like button its free for you but precious for me. It motivates me to keep making such valuable contents for you all for free. It takes hours of research and attention.
Thanks

Let's get to the chart.

Guys firstly I need you to understand, TA is the perfect way to speculate the future price movements.
Taking trades on the basis of TA is mostly profitable.
So do not take any decision with emotions.


Some questions you must have:

1. When should we exit the Market?
2. Everybody is saying ATH this year really?
3. What if BTC plummets significantly?

I have all your questions answered.


I need to inform you that BTC is on a Critical stage. Monthly chart is bullish af .
The next 16 days (till the monthly candle ends) will be very important for BTC .
Let me make you aware of both Scenarios:

BEARISH OVERVIEW:

1. BTC has been trading under this 92 days long channel which is now broken.
2. Unless we see a BREAK BELOW 8600 which will make a new LOWER LOW will confirm the REVERSAL IN TREND the overall trend is still Bullish
3.Any daily close below 8600 will be the right time to exit the market and position yourself in USDT! We can go way lower can even touch the 5k level.
(Not a financial Investment)
4.What if it makes a lower low around 8600?
Well If it makes a lower low around 8600, it will make a lower high as well, that will be the best time to EXIT, THE FIRST LOWER HIGH!
FOLLOW ME TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN TO EXIT IF THE TREND REVERSES!

BULLISH OVERVIEW:

1.Although BTC broke below that trendline but it might start trading under a potential Bullish Wedge for the next 16 days of the month to close above $9200 (The Brown dotted Line).
2. Maintaining that $9200 level will save us from being bearish but if somehow BTC manages to close above the $10500 Key Resistance, we will be entering a potential multi-year Bull Market.

So for those holding USDT (Sold around 10k on my call) just hold and stay aside until BTC makes a higher high above 10500.
If it manages to do so just jump in (I'll let you know the right time).

MUCH MORE INFORMATION IS GIVEN IN THE CHART, PLEASE OBSERVE.

I will update only 3 to 5 BTC updates monthly and that will be enough to know the trading territory for swing traders and scalpers.
Stop predicting the 100-200 dollar fluctuations and look at the big picture.



Do hit that like button and share your views in the comment section.
If you have any questions you can DM me directly. I try everyday to answer as many questions I can.

#Stay Safe

PEACE


Comment: Monthly Overview:

This is what I guess is the best chart you can see!!
Did you see how the trend is holding that black support line?
It simply means these 16 days are very crucial.

What do we need?

1.Maintaining that $9200+ Level
2.If possible break above $10500.



Comment: Weekly Overview:

50D MA is working as a support since the last 6 weeks which is a good sign.
Every previous Bull market has begun with the break above that 50D MA.
But still we need a close above that resistance trendline since 20k.

Comment: #BTC 4 hour Update:

BTC touched the 8800ish level. This was an aggressive selling pressure.
Currently somehow matching up with the traditional markets.
As per the chart, BTC started trading under a new potential wedge making lower lows and lower highs (mind, its a ltf chart). There are two scenarios for the short term:

Scenario 1:
BTC could get rejected from the mid line of the channel which will push the price further down to the 8700 level.

Scenario 2:
BTC could break above that mid line and touch t he upper trendline of the wedge.
I will asses in another chart if it follows this scenario.

What is my plan?
To look at the big picture.
The total marketcap and the monthly chart os looking bullish af.
I will rather wait for the confirmations of the initial update on this idea.


Trade active: Daily candle closed. Good news for bulls, daily closed and the price didn't break below that 50D MA line (Green). After breaking the 9k level the price came right back up the 50MA. The whole excessive selling ended up in a wick. It's trying hard to break the $9500 level now. This is a crucial point now. Break would take BTC to retest upper resistances such as $9570 $9733 $10142. As I said earlier in my update the monthly end candle is all that matters, 14 more days to go. I will update a daily Market close for you all to keep you level headed. Thanks for following,
Forward this update to others and help them to be informed!

Stay tuned.


#PEACE


Comment: Seems like BTC is turning extremely bullish in Daily TF.
Maintaining the 50DMA level.
Lower BB Support+Trying to break above the middle BB Line.
Daily close above 9379 would be very important to remain bullish in the mid term.
It can open possibilities to the retest of 9920 by the end of this week.
I will keep this chart updated.
Do follow me and share this idea with others.

Thanks
Stay safe

PEACE


Comment: I am grateful to all of you for your appreciations. Keep supporting my work if you find it deserving.

BTC Daily Update:
So far so good. Daily closed above 9379 at 9526.
Middle BB is acting as a Resistance. Generally it breaks after multiple days of continuous efforts. Expecting it to break soon.
Current BB Range: $9177(LB) to $10044(UB).
TREND:

Daily: Bullish
Weekly: Bullish
Monthly: Bullish

Comment: Just to let you know, this chart will be updated everyday for the next 12 days till the monthly close so make sure you are following this update.

Let's get to the daily chart.

You can clearly see those arrows. Every time the price is hitting the 10 level and gets broken below the 50D MA, BTC's price plummets significantly.
All the facts given above are concrete and exactly my trading plan.

We will wait for the following confirmation:

1. Either a break and close above 10.5k : Bullish
2. Break and Close below 8600: Bearish (GTFO)
3.Monthly close above 9223: Bullish.




Comment: Bad news is BTC is now trading below the 50D MA in daily. Though this is weekend the reliable price that we can consider will be the monday open. Till now the mid channel is acting as a support so far (9200ish). If we don't break that 50D MA line it is highly likely that we can revisit the lower support area of the channel which leads to 8900. After that BTC must bounce from that area. IMO Let's wait for the monday open. I have said this before, we do not trust the weekend candles. Stay tuned more updates coming up.

Join my Free Telegram channel for more frequent updates and Trade Setups.
https://t.me/thecryptorphic

Comments

Nobody's willing to buy above 10k, especially with economic uncertainty. Furthermore btc is missing value:
- No luxury / status value
- No production value
- Debatable intrinsic value (unless you mean speculative)

To boost this value we'd need a massive switch from fiat to crypto which simply is not happening.

If it can fulfill one of these three valuations 100% it doesn't need the other two (although gold fulfills all three) and it can start its path to big growth. It's still too easy to see price below 7k, or 5k even. Institutional buyers are currently lining up a wyckoff distribution pattern with institutional selling between 9500-10000. When we're pushed back down again we will see where the accumulation pattern pops up again.
+7 Reply
Cryptorphic boleroking
@boleroking, Well observed. I agree with you.
Reply
Your question is irrevelant.
BTC is "ineffective market". 25% of this asset is in hands of a few chinese minning groups. They can do whatever they like. Any kind of "analysis" on BTC is useless. Particularly technical analysis.
They can "print the chart" in any way, depending how many believers i Fibonacci, Wyckoff,TA or anything else.
It is like predicting movement of fly on the wall.
Playing BTC is a pure gamble. So many gamblers here, but no one wants to admit they are addicts....
+6 Reply
@PaxPix What exactly is your point?
I read your 80 word+ comment but couldn’t come to a conclusion.
What are these people (including you) doing here on TV If TA doesn’t work at all?
+6 Reply
PaxPix Cryptorphic
@Cryptorphic, My point is that you could not predict future BTC price. Especially BTC. It is the same probability like flipping the coin. BTC is not "effective market", as I said.
All those nice drawn lines on your chart just represents the past and you can't make projection in the future based on the past events.
I am trading stocks, and I am using tape reading. It gives more chances to predict what is going to happen in a very short time frame, from a few seconds to a minute.
The longer time projection in the future, the less probability of correct guess. It is like gambling.
+1 Reply
@PaxPix, I respect your opinion but you trade a completely different market. Trading BTC is gambling I can understand that. You trade traditional stocks which is less manipulative and a saturated market. Effective as you can call.
But if you look deep into BTC it has somehow behaved identically.

Just saying.
+5 Reply
PaxPix Cryptorphic
@Cryptorphic, Correct. That is why I am not trading BTC or any crypto. You can't see an order flow.
I did comment because BTC analysis are always on the front page of Tradingview, so I could not hold my opinion today :-)
Wish you a nice profits.
Cheers.
+2 Reply
@PaxPix, This is a new market and will take time to saturate.
Thanks for your interest and valuable feedback.
Reply
ron80 PaxPix
@PaxPix, TA is always like flipping a coin, no matter what market. It's playing with probabilities and that's it. Also, the stock market is as manipulated as crypto just on a bigger scale and with more (federal and institutional) players.
+5 Reply
PaxPix ron80
@ron80, On the stock market you have one place to see a flow order. Time & Sales is showing all transactions from every ECN and Dark Room in a real time. Reading that tape , and following situation on the order book ( to some extent) gives more chances to predict price movement in a short time frame. It is like "surfing the wave" because situation is dynamic. It is very laborous technique. Using a TA and trying to predict future price movement based on historical data is like gambling. BTC market is not centralised, you can't see flow order, plus- it is not effective market.
+1 Reply
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