BTC -0.08% has formed a rising wedge that has broken above a 2 month long downward column, and is currently consolidating around the .236 retrace of the falling column created during May and June. I have a close up of the subwaves of waves 2 and 3 of the wedge in the update below.
Wave 2 was a WXY. Subwave 3 of 3 was only 1.618 of subwave 1 of 3, making wave 3 significantly smaller than wave 1, from this we can infer the continuation of the wedge pattern until completion. I have subwave 5 of 3 matching the length of subwave 3 of 3, making it extend towards the top of the wedge . Wave 3 cannot be the smallest, and therefore that forces wave 5 to be the smallest wave. This pattern of decreasing volume and price heights of waves 1, 3, and 5, is a common trait of the rising wedge . I have wave 4 retracing to the top of 3. I have wave 5 at .5 of wave 1, which as you can see matches exactly with the .382 retrace of the downward column.
I have the top price of the wedge at 7369, which is your sell target on the wedge .
The rising wedge , during a bear trend, will break in a continuation of the bear trend. The base of the wedge is at 5757. This price is found on the bottom of the candlewick seen on the Bitfinex chart. The base of the candle is up at 5780; this represents the minimum (upper) price target after breaking from the rising wedge . I am expecting the price to drop down to any one of the fibonacci extensions less than a 1:1 with the price drop of the column before the rising wedge . I use the fibonacci extension tool to mark up the price targets on the chart.
Therefore, I am expecting the BTC -0.08% price bottom at any price between 3100 and 5780; however, the highest probability is the median (.382, .5, and .618), represented by the "Buy Zone Target." It would be wise to cast a buy ladder at each of the fibonacci prices, 5743, 5241, 4739, 4024, and 3113, where the bulk of the buying happens within the median.
just now
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Wave 2 was a WXY. Subwave 3 of 3 was only 1.618 of subwave 1 of 3, making wave 3 significantly smaller than wave 1, from this we can infer the continuation of the wedge pattern until completion. I have subwave 5 of 3 matching the length of subwave 3 of 3, making it extend towards the top of the wedge . Wave 3 cannot be the smallest, and therefore that forces wave 5 to be the smallest wave. This pattern of decreasing volume and price heights of waves 1, 3, and 5, is a common trait of the rising wedge . I have wave 4 retracing to the top of 3. I have wave 5 at .5 of wave 1, which as you can see matches exactly with the .382 retrace of the downward column.
I have the top price of the wedge at 7369, which is your sell target on the wedge .
The rising wedge , during a bear trend, will break in a continuation of the bear trend. The base of the wedge is at 5757. This price is found on the bottom of the candlewick seen on the Bitfinex chart. The base of the candle is up at 5780; this represents the minimum (upper) price target after breaking from the rising wedge . I am expecting the price to drop down to any one of the fibonacci extensions less than a 1:1 with the price drop of the column before the rising wedge . I use the fibonacci extension tool to mark up the price targets on the chart.
Therefore, I am expecting the BTC -0.08% price bottom at any price between 3100 and 5780; however, the highest probability is the median (.382, .5, and .618), represented by the "Buy Zone Target." It would be wise to cast a buy ladder at each of the fibonacci prices, 5743, 5241, 4739, 4024, and 3113, where the bulk of the buying happens within the median.
just now
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very slight correction for the target on wave 3 top; I have it at 7076 on 9:00 hours of 07/10 UTC time.
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be aware of the possibility of this alternate count. The traditional count on a rising wedge is 12345; however, this could be a corrective WXY that happens to have contracting trend lines. The WXY count origin happens on the June 29 low while the 12345 rising wedge count origin is on the low at June 24. If you are trading the rising wedge it will be prudent to take most profits at the top of 3 incase this alternate WXY count is valid and the price breaks from the wedge early.
Anyone following the Bitstamp chart rather than Bitfinex chart would be more apt to make the WXY count their primary because subwave 2 of 1 did a 94.2 fib retrace on the Bitfinex chart but did more than 100% retrace on the Bitstamp chart, invalidating the possibility of the June 24 origin of the rising wedge (according to the Bitstamp chart). However, I believe Bitfinex is closer to actual price sentiment and I still hold to the 12345 count on the rising wedge as my primary count.
Anyone following the Bitstamp chart rather than Bitfinex chart would be more apt to make the WXY count their primary because subwave 2 of 1 did a 94.2 fib retrace on the Bitfinex chart but did more than 100% retrace on the Bitstamp chart, invalidating the possibility of the June 24 origin of the rising wedge (according to the Bitstamp chart). However, I believe Bitfinex is closer to actual price sentiment and I still hold to the 12345 count on the rising wedge as my primary count.
subwaves of waves 2 and 3 of the rising wedge