Bitcoin had struggled around the 30 000 USD price tag over the past two weeks when low volumes proved insufficient to propel Bitcoin higher. After several false breakouts above the short-term resistance, Bitcoin always erased its profits immediately. Currently, BTCUSD trades slightly below 30 000 USD. We continue to be bearish on it as we expect economic conditions to worsen with the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Therefore, our price target stays at 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows BTC's market dominance. It can be observed that BTC's market dominance was around the lowest levels at previous cryptocurrency market tops. Since the start of 2022, Bitcoin has started to regain its market dominance, which aligns with our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
As the FED meeting approaches next week, the VIX started to manifest signs of awakening. We believe the FED will worsen economic conditions by hiking interest rates. As a result, we expect risk-aversion to return into the market, culminating in a selloff of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.03
At the moment, Bitcoin remains stuck in the neutral zone. However, we expect an eventual breakout to the downside.
Illustration 1.04
Illustration 1.04 hints at a substantial difference in volume sizes between the BTC bull market and the BTC bear market.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Illustration 1.01
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.04
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trade closed: target reached:
Our price target of 25 000 USD was reached.
