Bitcoin - No longer bullish, top in for the rally
During the last week, we gave market participants an ultimate warning about the impending reversal in the market. Soon after we argued the top of the bear market rally might be in, Bitcoin fell more than 15%.
A change in our short-term view is mainly influenced by technical factors, which point to the return of intense selling pressure. Indeed, we believe the current selloff will soon escalate into panic mode in the cryptocurrency sector. As a result, we expect highly elevated volatility and Bitcoin to drop to a new low.
Our medium-term and long-term views remain unchanged as we expect bearish fundamental factors to stay persistent throughout 2022 and 2023. Additionally, we believe that the recession will bring risk-off sentiment, wreaking chaos in the stock market as well as the cryptocurrency market.
Because of these reasons, and the ones described in our previous ideas, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows two bearish breakouts below prior support levels. Additionally, a build-up in volume accompanying a price drop is indicated on the bottom; this development is the ideal picture we wanted to see in order to confirm our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows another bearish breakout below the sloping support, further bolstering the bearish case for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Above is the setup we introduced recently.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
A change in our short-term view is mainly influenced by technical factors, which point to the return of intense selling pressure. Indeed, we believe the current selloff will soon escalate into panic mode in the cryptocurrency sector. As a result, we expect highly elevated volatility and Bitcoin to drop to a new low.
Our medium-term and long-term views remain unchanged as we expect bearish fundamental factors to stay persistent throughout 2022 and 2023. Additionally, we believe that the recession will bring risk-off sentiment, wreaking chaos in the stock market as well as the cryptocurrency market.
Because of these reasons, and the ones described in our previous ideas, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trade active:
Update is here:
Trade closed: target reached:
Our price target of 17 500 USD was reached.
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