Bitcoin - The market is poised to go South

Two days ago, we projected the downward sloping channel on the daily chart of BTCUSD. Since then, the price broke to the upside and retraced back to the channel, increasing the upper bound's significance (and again validating the pattern). Meanwhile, the market sentiment started to turn bearish, with many market participants giving up on hopes of the FED's pivot. As we also do not believe the FED will backtrack on its monetary policy in 2022, we think the mood is set to turn very grim in the month of September.

Because of that, we will pay close attention to the FED's decision on the 21st September 2022. We expect the FED to raise interest rates from 50bps to 75bps, which will negatively affect the economy. As a result, we think the risk-on appetite will deteriorate and lead to high selling pressure. However, we will update our thoughts on that before the meeting.

In terms of other fundamental factors, we see mounting evidence that the world has entered a global recession, with many real economies starting to feel it. Moreover, with central banks around the globe pursuing the destruction of demand, we think the evidence over the coming months will be even more apparent.

Meanwhile, technical factors also point to the downside across various sectors; and across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. That bolsters our bearish conviction and makes us stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. However, we think the cyclical low might lie far below our price targets. Again, though, we will reassess our thoughts as the trend unravels.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the most recent technical developments on the daily chart of BTCUSDT. Yellow arrows indicate two bearish breakouts below prior support levels, a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, and a bullish breakout above the channel followed by the retracement. Additionally, the green arrow indicates increasing volume, which is ideal for confirming our bearish thesis. Now, we will pay close attention to the price action; ideally, we would like to see it take out its recent low at 19 510 USD.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Additionally, several bearish developments are indicated by yellow arrows. Declining and increasing volume is shown by red and green arrows. We would like to see a breakout below the immediate support to confirm our bearish thesis.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.03

The chart above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD; for this pair, the low needed to be taken out is 19 526 USD.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Trade active:

It seems that the pattern will undergo further distortion unless the price falls sharply on Saturday. Regardless, we remain bearish.

Trade active:

Bitcoin broke below the immediate support and then also below the 19 000 USD price tag. These developments are very bearish and further confirm our view.

Trade closed: target reached:

Our price target of 17 500 USD was reached.

Trade active:

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