Quick update of yesterdays scenario (www.tradingview.com/...trade-next-scenario/):
We saw price failing to push through straight away, as we suspected. Now we have 4 actionable options before us:
1. Price moves down and we see a reactivation of a new bullish cycle somewhere in the support area. Here we can re-enter a long position if we get good signals
2. Price stagnates and allows some time to pass, reactivating the momentum for a next push up. Here too we can possibly re-enter a long, however the risk would be bigger (as we are farther away from our invalidation level than when price would move down first. The target remains the same)
3. We go up straight away in some kind of fomo run, in which case there is no safe entry for us, as we’re going up on exhausted momentum.
4. We break down violently. in which case we would have to reassess momentum before entering short.
As we said, the odds are we’re about to have another upmove, but we need to find a good low risk entry. For that to happen we need to see some reaction first: we don;t want to get in at the end of the last move, we want the beginning or confirmation of the next.
So patience again, and serenity: we have our plan laid out.
Let’s glance at the charts briefly
Daily
As we can see we are out of equilibrium, and will need one of the above scenarios to play out to restore that: either price moves to kijun, or kijun moves to price. Kijun and Chikou were not able to break the kumo on the last push. Again, waiting for momentum to restore and possibly break out. Kijun will remain flat for the coming days if we don’t make new highs, in which case the consolidation may take some days.
2HR
The 2HR timeframe is showing all signs of consolidation, as all elements move into each other, about to meet the kumo. We will either hold the area around the kumo for a while, or dip down before starting the next wave up.
We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out, and if we get a good setup developing on this timeframe to enter the trade.
Now, utter a brief word of gratitude to the passage of time, without which we would have nothing, set alerts around the key levels and close the charts.
Enjoy your day
We saw price failing to push through straight away, as we suspected. Now we have 4 actionable options before us:
1. Price moves down and we see a reactivation of a new bullish cycle somewhere in the support area. Here we can re-enter a long position if we get good signals
2. Price stagnates and allows some time to pass, reactivating the momentum for a next push up. Here too we can possibly re-enter a long, however the risk would be bigger (as we are farther away from our invalidation level than when price would move down first. The target remains the same)
3. We go up straight away in some kind of fomo run, in which case there is no safe entry for us, as we’re going up on exhausted momentum.
4. We break down violently. in which case we would have to reassess momentum before entering short.
As we said, the odds are we’re about to have another upmove, but we need to find a good low risk entry. For that to happen we need to see some reaction first: we don;t want to get in at the end of the last move, we want the beginning or confirmation of the next.
So patience again, and serenity: we have our plan laid out.
Let’s glance at the charts briefly
Daily
As we can see we are out of equilibrium, and will need one of the above scenarios to play out to restore that: either price moves to kijun, or kijun moves to price. Kijun and Chikou were not able to break the kumo on the last push. Again, waiting for momentum to restore and possibly break out. Kijun will remain flat for the coming days if we don’t make new highs, in which case the consolidation may take some days.
2HR
The 2HR timeframe is showing all signs of consolidation, as all elements move into each other, about to meet the kumo. We will either hold the area around the kumo for a while, or dip down before starting the next wave up.
We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out, and if we get a good setup developing on this timeframe to enter the trade.
Now, utter a brief word of gratitude to the passage of time, without which we would have nothing, set alerts around the key levels and close the charts.
Enjoy your day
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