BTC/USD - Levels To Watch

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello traders, I hope you've all had a good trading week.

Here we have BTC/USD on the 8H chart.

BTC/USD has been trading down since a higher low failed to hold up since the 7th January. Price has recently been trading within a structure, between the horizontal support zone at 12600, and at a side-wards resistance line. Both have been keeping price down.

Price is currently breaking down. Each time price tests the side-wards resistance, it is making a new lower low within structure and getting weaker. But on the retest that is about to occur, it will find support at the 200 moving average, and a horizontal support zone simultaneously at 12310. This could be a strong enough support to keep price from falling further.

I am expecting Bitcoin to eventually pick up momentum. I believe due to the continuous bearish pressure, waiting for a hint of price action will not enough to risk a trade. We want a compelling set up, and there is 2 scenarios which could give us the compelling set up that we badly need to see Bitcoin go to higher prices.

This trade could play out in 2 days, I have outlined these below:

-Price successfully retests the first support zone at 12460 and simultaneously hitting the 200 major moving average before a move up. This is the preferred scenario because if price action is hitting a strong support and major moving average and using as support, it implies the long term trend is favorably up. If this scenario occurs, it will bounce off the support zone and have a strong up move to the target zone at 19640.
-Price breaks the first support zone (The scenario mentioned above) at 12460 and breaks down further and finds support at 8500. If price makes it this far, it will create a compelling buy up to the target zone at 19640. It is compelling because price will be extremely oversold if it can make it this low.

Bare in mind that we need a compelling set up for a buy. Recently there's been extensive bearish activity, and it will be a beyond average trade set up to get in nicely.

If price retests the first or second support level , it makes little difference anymore. Either the horizontal support and major moving average support, and the second scenario with an oversold are both scenarios Bitcoin will favor from. So let's be patient, wait for the right level, and trade safely.

There has recently been huge interest in my private Telegram channel in the comments section of my previous analysis. Please be aware that I will ONLY accept queries regarding the private Telegram channel if you contact me directly on Telegram itself. Please contact me directly on Telegram regarding my private channel if you wish to join.

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I will updating this analysis if it receives more than 40 likes.
Comment: I have received a couple of feedbacks regarding me updating my old ideas to show my new ideas.

Apologies for this, I just wanted to help as many people as possible. I did not mean to clog up any of your email inboxes or be annoying purposely!

I will not do this again.

Just a little bit of an interesting candle formation forming on since a few days.... my 2 cents
Hi Tom

Is it possible to fall below the 8K support zone?

Thank you
THX for analysis! u all time right. :)
Hello Tom
is a drop to the 8K level is more likely?
Thank you
+3 Reply
@Danielkh, I think not. We will see in the future though. For now, up.
Danielkh TomProTrader
@TomProTrader, Thanks Tom
Do you recommend to jump in now? any buy entry you currently recommend?
so in general its good if it hits 12300 USD ? then it "should" jump up ?
+2 Reply
TomProTrader CezaryDemianiuk
@CezaryDemianiuk, Looks like it bounced early. Not sure if it will hold up beyond the test level.

Let's see :)
I've come to like your straightforward analysis. Thanks!
Let's hope that price provides an attractive buy opportunity.
@pjims, Thanks for your compliments

Much more content to come :)
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