In December 2018, BTC hit the lowest price at about 3100 USD since the ATH of December 2017. Interestingly enough, that low respects the bottom to bottom cycle progression. Subsequently, BTC surged back to the 61,8% mark. It has been fluctuating in between ever since, keeping the scenario of the 3000 USD bottom intact.
On the other hand, I still remember the crushing optimism of Summer 2014, after BTC had broken the over six months downtrend line. Finally, by the end of summer, the breakout turned out to be a bull trap, after BTC had broken back under the 20 MA on the weekly chart, eventually lengthening the downtrend for almost a year. In my opinion, the 3000$ mark will decide to which scenario we are heading. If BTC breaks under it, I think the downtrend will resume for another couple of years to around 1000$. Despite the high expectations around the reward halving in May, I doubt that the cut-down supply will be enough to launch the uptrend, and even more, I believe that the disappointment of this event will push the price lower, contributing to the 3000$ level break. Of course, the previous halvings preceded uptrends. Still, I sense this time the halving of the reward arrives in a different market condition and will even contribute as one of the triggers to the downtrend extension.
I believe the next halving, though, will synchronize with the next uptrend.
So, good luck to Bitcoin traders and keep cool :)
On the other hand, I still remember the crushing optimism of Summer 2014, after BTC had broken the over six months downtrend line. Finally, by the end of summer, the breakout turned out to be a bull trap, after BTC had broken back under the 20 MA on the weekly chart, eventually lengthening the downtrend for almost a year. In my opinion, the 3000$ mark will decide to which scenario we are heading. If BTC breaks under it, I think the downtrend will resume for another couple of years to around 1000$. Despite the high expectations around the reward halving in May, I doubt that the cut-down supply will be enough to launch the uptrend, and even more, I believe that the disappointment of this event will push the price lower, contributing to the 3000$ level break. Of course, the previous halvings preceded uptrends. Still, I sense this time the halving of the reward arrives in a different market condition and will even contribute as one of the triggers to the downtrend extension.
I believe the next halving, though, will synchronize with the next uptrend.
So, good luck to Bitcoin traders and keep cool :)
