BTC possible bull trap ahead & systemic risk to the market

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin has enjoyed its status and name recognition but hasn't received much-needed updates to resolve problems with its fundamentals. It's my belief that sooner rather than later it'll be displaced by one or hopefully several other better-qualified alternatives.

If we look at the chart, in Oct the weekly and monthly EMAs crossed twice & each time the price touched the monthly EMA a strong rebound ensued. However, it's undeniable that bitcoin has been overextended. I do believe that a very likely scenario is that three corrective waves will be completed. This will also form a head & shoulder trend reversal for BTCUSD . The danger zone would be between 15k and 17k .

Btw, the indicators haven't given a buy signal for a while, only sells. But of course any clear head can understand why. I think this is a quite likely scenario, but this market is very uncertain. There's a lot of information asymmetry that retail investors have to deal with. It's important to manage risks & deleverage as the price goes up. If and only if BTC has a period of consolidation can be we confident in levering up again.

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Comment: It appears that the coast isn't clear as some have argued, but I think it probably will go up a little more before POSSIBLE further drops.

Also check tether issuance. Without the T, BC goes down
Comment: Tomorrow will be crucial:

If BTC goes down a little more, we'll have a death cross of weekly EMA crossing down the monthly EMA + H&S will be confirmed.

If this happens, BTC will go to at least 9k if not lower. The bubble will be burst.
Comment: It almost appears that BTC will go to 15k at this point. Uncertainty will be with the next step.
Comment: Found this on reddit: https://imgtc.com/i/6vNVjc9.jpg

Not sure how to process it in terms of price movement. Personally, I was aware of blockstream but not mastercard & the fed having stakes in btc.

My personal thought on bitcoin has been that it could very well crash after 28/12, but I have been wrong many times on this specific issue.

One thing to look at would be the wealth concentration: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/

If this drops, we know the big boys have bated
Comment: It's blowing off --- even before the fake fork.

Yes, top wallets are now poorer.
Comment: Just noticed that it did follow this old chart quite well. I do think a bounce back to ~14.2k as shown here is likely today or tomorrow. Sell opportunity, perhaps.
Highly agree..I have very similar thoughts .. some interesting pump in twitter first with CME news around 6K tok it to 8K then 10k pump ATH followed by CBOE Wall St pump 10k to 20k.. now what ? denial ? back to normal ? I cant see the previous huge buy volumes
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elshanti elshanti
@elshanti, ops and I forgot the 2X fork pump where everbody dumped the alts to get free 2x forked bitcoins when the price was 5k..
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Hard Fork(s) Coming Doc
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DrJLT Doc-al-Citadel
@qdoc, Yes, more reason for it to fall afterwards
@DrJLT, i thought i'd go the other way most likely if segwit 2x or a seemingly unlikely bcu fork got the block size and transactions moving in the right direction. Not that I'm too fussed. I am only hodling bitcoin gold at the moment plus I am speculating on the chain split tokens. Been out of btc and bch for a while now ;-)
DrJLT Doc-al-Citadel
@qdoc, I think this is just another bs scam, just like bitcoin diamond, bitcoinX, bitcoin hot... I can also make one (better premine some first, like from today)
@DrJLT, yes doc I know that's the conventional view. I study scripting. I believe the whole of the cryptoverse to be scripted and as such I think a new btc is about to rise like a 'phoenix'. Could be wrong of course ;-) But I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Let's see!!! ps yes I'm thinking about btcqdoc, nice ring don't u think ;-)
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DrJLT Doc-al-Citadel
@qdoc, may be interesting to buy some in the future after the initial selloff on the cheap. like picking up bch at 200 or btg at 100.
@DrJLT, not going to hold btc just to get these
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