so here is what to reasonably expect and logic for why it would happen -
1) we are coming down from a divergence top on . so it is more likely that we are not going to see an over the top again. this nearly rules out 13000 or even 10000 scenario before we hit the market bottom.
2) never goes down in a straight line from top. somewhere in middle it sqiggles up for a brief while midway. this explains why momentum for downfall stalled midway and you saw price jump from 8200 to 8700 and this could still go higher but should stay below 9300 for all practical purposes as that was where markets had consolidated for quite a while during this fall before continuing further (remember what was support previously becomes resistance later).
3) now the rising has beautifully respected the bottoms and if you see the cyclical trends of with time and i have marked some possible points with arrow on future time frame then its easy to understand why market and bottom is likely to coincide with 7400 or so with very low probability of being lower. The longer it takes to reach the market bottom the more likely it is that market bottom will be still higher.
4) you can easily see how and divergence with bottom and rising perfectly matched at 6700 in april and this is why hedge funds like panthera capital gave a confident statement that worst for bitcoin was over.
1)if markets hold on to price levels above 8000 and RSI hits a bottom then next cycle up would cross 13000 with ease and then will moon up because gradually people holding shorts from 20,19,18 k will begin closing their positions and buy back into market.
2) do not try to day or margin trade for now. these are now choppy waters and price may stall to a gradual decline with unpredictable swings which only very experienced day traders can see.
3) for markets to make a correction to levels below 7k bearish momentum has to be great and strong which will become less and less likely as time passes.
4) throughout april and may we were in a bear market and it was easy to predict that market will likely not reach higher than 10000 as RSI top this bull cycle was higher than previous bull cycle to 11000 in march and yet price was stalling at 9800....another bearish sign ...so market fall was imminent
market sentiment is very very important....all charts are mathematical evaluation of sentiments only
avoid leverage in next 10 days and save your capital for next bull run :)
the 4 hourly chart hinted it but RSI bottom for same price action was way too oversold.....now you dont want a chart which goes too much unpredictable in its depth of heights and bottoms.......image of 4 hourly chart is attached below.....hopefully TV will allow two images
would you seek long term market bottom on 1 hours chart - no,,,,,,4 hour chart------no,,,,,,, daily chart-----yes.............
would you do intraday trade on daily chart ----- no,,,,,,,4 hourly chart----no (it would need some experience like spotting support and resistances and also things like rsi doesnt max out after a deep bottom which follows a steep fall).....1 hourly chart-----yes.....
could you forever keep using same charts......no......
when should you change your charts......when a trend becomes invalidated and a new trend is formed..
how to spot a chart to follow - ----- just see which time frame shows RSI in correct proportions with observed tops and bottoms in price action!
Botje initially got it wrong....but then corrected himself.....
magic poop cannon was telling we will reach 4100!...and by the way he was calling himself master pattern recognition!
D4rkenergy was epic......he was suggesting 4887 at market bottom and mooning bitcoin at market top!
I dont mean to make fun of these people.....but only show how its difficult to make predictions in this market when your charts and analysis are very superficial and not backed by long term trends.....anyone who was predicting a major drop to 4000 at an oversold RSI has poor understanding of market fundamentals!
So D4rkenergy has somehow changed his stance to match with mine about market bottom...earlier he was saying bottom is 7900-8000ish....he is known to change his stance all the time
Botje is saying today what i said many days ago
this guy is giving horrible advise to go short at market bottom and long at market top.....bull cycle does not start near market top after crossing a threshold.....it actually starts at market bottom.....opposite hold true for bear cycle.....
magicpoopcannon is consistently saying 3000......which i dont see happening in near future unless WW3 starts
.which will come crashing down....perfect exploit for market manipulation
he also made the same observation on RSI as me.......quoting - "Further, the relative strength index (RSI) is below 50.00 (in the bearish territory), but holding well above 30.00 (oversold territory), indicating enough room for a sell-off towards $7,000."
here are the expected movements on 4hr chart
expected movements on 1hr chart
large sell off will occur when three cardinal signs coincide.....RSI top on 4hr and 1hr charts and lack of large volume break away from 7600 range
this is the four hour chart at same moment
so this is how you spot an interim top in a bear trend
this is the daily chart
and this was the 4hr chart
happy trading......i hope i could keep the analysis simple, logical and reproducible so that even newbies could gain confidence in trading crypto!
rest all is for some fun reading.....and showing off and scaring newbies (including confusing yourself in the process and developing deep biases).....enjoy!.....busy work week ahead for me ....may not be able to update so frequently now
my analysis .....consistent with whatever i have explained so far.....predicts the opposite
long term elliot waves should be drawn from market tops to bottoms.....and remember ....elliot waves are a simplification.....markets dont follow straight lines.....they swiggle around them
this is what i feel are correctly drawn elliot waves for bitcoin
will post chart tomorrow
i dont usually give calls.....but i did this so as to practically demonstrate opportune entry and exit points in cycles
an amazing coincidence happened.....as i was thinking to write today my medium term predictions for bitcoin as promised.....omkar godbole did the same today itself
He likes to use moving averages a lot....while i can easily reach the same conclusions using RSI ....right now we can spot a bullish diversion in 4hr chart....this essentially means that we are in a corrective rally...and bottom has likely been reached at 7050 for the immediate present.....and it tallied beautifully on the daily chart as i explained in my previous posts....here is the daily chart and link to godbole's article
but this cycle is likely to test your nerves with more frequent ups and downs precluding use of high leverage
..you can go long at any good entry point say 7480 or lower if you catch it....the downward correction will start once RSI on 4 he chart maximises.....from there markets will go red.....if they stay above 7300.....you will catch wind to 7600 hopefully.....another option is to wait 4hr RSI to Max out and then catch down spiral and then go up again if markets stay above 7300
BUT BUT BUT something else is cooking up too as per elliot and RSI wave analysis
a valid anticipated fractal should also be backed by market sentiment similar to historical time frame.....so always look at RSI and some other indicators too....before going in
today i demonstrated how a breakout is looking imminent.....and how present market movements are a summation of one fractal from past few days and another from two months ago......
markets follow mass psychology principles.....which need a clear unbiased mind to analyse.....i am neither a bull nor bear......only a hummingbird that follows both bulls and bears wherever they go!
one day i saw D4rkenergy picking up S&P chart and drawing fractal comparison......me and fellow colleagues had the laugh of lifetime that day.....
the guy has gone silent for past many days...looks busy......normally i see his predictions and use them as self confirmation whenever they are opposite to what i feel ;)
they would obviously notice the lack of participating volumes (meaning people willing to buy 400-500 btc in order to break resistances) in this rally....
they would also notice the corrective move needed right now......they never buy on oversold 4hr RSI
we are below all major trendlines too
just wait and see......we will have a move down......if the move truncates above 7400.....market would have chosen its direction for next weeks......if the move continues down.......well.....well.....well......6900 in sight......and then god knows what!
i still feel we should be up......but all depends on noobs to fomo......if they dont fomo.......then traders by themselves cant do much in a zero sum game
on the contrary .....if the markets move up.....then it will be a historical day of 5 consecutive green candles for BTC!
the moving water guy refuses to share his methods
but i increasingly suspect they are humbug. maybe someone using the tactic of
creating an aura of mystery to attract followers
simple RSI, MACD and momentum oscillators can explain
all market moves in recent past
basic elliott wave analysis can predict all major market moves over longer term
i am posting these charts to see what happens from here
this guy has predicted a bull trap and then price down to 6900 and 5700 or what
my analysis is conventional but says something else but with common end point.
and my analysis is not cryptic....but logical and consistent so that even you can reach similar conclusions and trade profitably in future!!!!!....if you consider this long idea now as a trading guide
if i were a whale......i would do this......lolz
well i am not a whale....just an analyst..... do you know i dont even trade bitcoin.....this allows me unbiased reviews of market moves.....happy trading....and remember......i gave clear cut end points when everyone else was confused.....well we will also have a short squeeze soon......its market and elliott rules!!!!!!!
i live in India and will now be going on summer vacations starting tomorrow.....so updates will be erratic
if you really like it.....spread my post around......poor noobs losing money all the time following half baked analysts.....enjoy!
do you know you can trade stocks also using all the ideas in this post......just that stocks have a slow turnover time.....i like bitcoin because its unadulterated human emotion at display......i see it from research point of view.
regards and bye for now
there is only one trader i added to following list and its the moving water guy....i did that because he claimed a new method which i never heard before.....and now he has given update for 6900 and down again.....
well if someone was to ask me that what was the anticipated bottom of this correction in jan 2018.....i would have said 5700 without drawing a single chart as per elliott wave rule which gives bottom of abc correction as low of 4th wave of lesser cycle.....now i could have called it 'moving alcohol theory' and confused everyone ;)
so the reason i follow him is this....elliot waves are the king of all technical analysis....while RSI and other indicators are clergy.....i want to see if he has something to offer which defeats the king......so for all he has been saying is 5700 and bull traps....dont we know all moves up in a down trend are bull traps in a sense.....while elliott wave theory keeps giving accurate ups and downs both at shorter and longer time frames.....one trader bleek drew and interim chart in mid corrective cycle and i think it was a fluke....because his next corrective chart was going down all the way...and i feel he will be proven wrong....and both him and moving water guy cant explain their stand with clear reproducible logic.....i think no matter what others say......the real issue at hand is bias and lack of clarity in mind in doing correct conventional analysis....you see this repeatedly....teach same theory to a class of 100.....and yet final examination results reveal one topper all the time!
flying off in another hour.....enjoy......will some time post in future how to trade when actual bull run resumes.....as till now we were in triangle formations.....but for guys with family and kids it just means one well timed long position for simplicity.....though most rules in this post would still apply.....but still you can trade better
now PAMP due soon once 4hr RSI hits bottom ;)
meanwhile most traders are silent or confused.....i dont understand why........almost everybody is drawing wrong elliott waves.....we saw a bullish diagnoal pattern 5 wave up recently where wave 4 comes and overlaps wave 1....sometimes bitcoin can make rare patterns.......
now i will be back after a hiatus.....around top of this trend to continue my research.....i have left you at what i believe is door of wave 3.....and way is up.....lets hope the call is correct.....
but right now is an excellent time to buy and go long
pump will happen at end of abc correction of a subwave
need to break off.....researching bitcoin has taught me much more about conventional markets than markets themselves!
simply because price movements happen so quickly here that we have tremendous fun betting on next move of this 'ponzi scheme' as per warren buffet
we regularly test our theories here and our conventional trading skills have improved!.....i left you with two fractals here....7400+ and then moon.....or 7548+ and moon.....time will tell which one is correct...but its moon none the less.....though with price hovering around 7800 ....i increasingly feel its the latter one.....fits well with market psychology!....depression and then moon.....gives time to rekt some bulls and bears at the same time
now what from here
let me put it logically for you .....
1) c waves have the potential to retrace almost all the way back to wave 1 ---- 7100 in this case
2) but if we are to believe that next waves are 12345 to upside then stochastic RSI must have legs......yesterday while c wave was forming the stochastic RSI had actually become oversold......way over top in daily chart......now this is a huge red sign......add to it all moving averages above bitcoin......you have issues.....this is why i said a move below 7400 would leave bulls trapped for kill
3) monthly chart still shows a strong fresh wave of negative momentum which i explained and said a move down south was likely in medium term....even if we go up interim
so now what......
though now immediate bullish outlook is likely nullified....how deep can we head....
from an elliott wave perspective the markets have the potential to correct to wave 1 of supercycle......which started from 1980
they can also truncate any point above 2000.....
now the reason why i have difficulty in confidently telling the longer term bottom is that i dont know the intrinsic value of bitcoin.....if you ask me JPYUSD or say oil for example then i can confidently say that 30 usd per barrel is not possible for some length of time or something like that.......
and i dont know anyone who can tell instrinsic value of bitcoin confidently......may say its related to mining costs....but if actually BTC retraces to those levels then it becomes unprofitable for them and then it becomes a vicious cycle....where things can spiral even more down....
its easy to see that the only people who actually maintain the value of bitcoin up are HODLers.....
but people are still sold on the long term value of bitcoin....and that's why it lives
i will post his chart which he drew when i return
as for another educational point.....whenever you feel price has stalled in a range.....(usually people use bollinger bands which narrow down)....a major move occurs.....so this is why i said engines have ignited.....the bearish divergence which i have myself stressed so many times would have told about the crash......but i logged off mid way as it was nearing 1am IST
i mentioned all possible retracement levels.....5700 is 100% fib from top.....2000 is max possible point from elliott wave perspective....
over time i have written almost all rules of these indicators and showed their practical application
first lets understand few things.....
now here is that every bull must know about elliott waves......downward correction waves happen in abc pattern.....but each abc wave has further abc subwaves!
now if you look at my original long term elliott wave chart.......we are in wave c......and this c wave started from 7800.......before that the three double top triangles were all part of wave b which classically forms three triangles commonly...
so now can you guess the scheme of things to come......
2) confirming what i mentioned in a previous market move
so now what.......
we are forming a subsubwave a of downward wave c.......
a subsubwave b is due......means up......
but what will be the outcome.....down!
hope it answers many of your queries.....
now it all depends on where stochastic RSI takes from here
i expect the price to falsely go up.....before this daily stochastic RSI bottoms to accommodate abc pattern of subwave a of dominant wave c
then i expect another major wave up which will actually be subwave b of dominant wave c.........
then i expect final blood bath again in abc pattern.......
sorry.......this is what my conventional analysis points!
so i will suggest to only trade short calls in line of trend......trading long positions could be difficult to manage with marker making sudden moves against you!!!!!
with potential anywhere between 2000 - 6000
it all depends on market sentiment now.....what bottom most price of bitcoin majority choose to believe!
the whole idea here was to warn you about false breakouts.....right now we can breakout back to where we started ....7k....but outcome will be back down even more deep!!!!
by the way......this wave is known to take market sentiment down to depression for bulls!!!!!!
Second topic is will bitcoin ever see a genuine recession....the definition of a genuine recession is when we retrace back in correction more than wave 1......so if BTCUSd goes below 2000 ..... I would throw all bitcoins away......it means a horrible outcome ahead
I dont know how you people will react to what my analysis says ....please feel free to comment below.....it helps to know feedback.....and drives me to pursue this research......deep within I pray Bitcoin survives this....but it was my duty to warn you of possibilities ahead .....2018 is the first genuine test of Bitcoin .....and if you have learnt anything from my post......then please don't make the mistake of looking into history of Bitcoin to predict next moon........honestly......we don't know what lies ahead.......at present we can only flow with the market......or get out of it if we can't afford the potential losses
If it rises genuinely in an impulsive 12345 pattern and stochastic picks up along with RSI on monthly......I would consider BTc USD ready for next wave up on a longer term
since i dont have the precedent for BTCUSD.....i am posting charts of two major indian companies which made the same path as bitcoin to help you trade in future.......now we were sure of recovery of these companies as they had strong fundamentals......and the charts show how recovery will pan out.......enjoy bulls this one :)
and you can tell someone......dont plagiarise common elliott wave knowledge as 'moving water theory' ;)
so if its bullish then storm gets over in 5700
if its bearish then we go 2000 and down
take care of your families and make an informed choice
and remember......no one can tell for sure this time......its unprecedented......whoever is saying anything for sure is just gambling with 50% chance of success......so with this your impartial analyst signs off :)
no twitter channel....no fake claims.....no wizardry......just clear impartial simple logical reproducible analysis using the most reliable consistent and proven indicators
so by now it must be clear to everyone that we are in a major correction and the hottest debate is forecasting the bottom with logical explanation....now as professionals we like to use multiple indicators to back our forecast....firstly lets understand few concepts....in elliott wave theory markets move in 12345abc wave which together become 12 of a larger wave........ similarly the next 12345abc pattern becomes 34 of a larger wave......now the issue comes at next 12345abc......here markets must accomodate wave 5 and then subsequent correction of a larger wave.....further markets must somewhere accommodate bear runs too..... now i already mentioned how this bear run is important.....because here for the first time monthly chart is showing activity on the downside...i am redrawing that chart below.....to explain how and why we feel a lower market bottom
now this is why we expect quite a period of market consolidation ......the ease of movement indicator......it has shown a large fluctuation this end of bull cycle and is now expected to quieten for a while prior to next bull run respecting its rhytm
this is all valid only if bitcoin is to regain bullishness over longer term.....i am not qualified to answer if tomorrow bitcoin goes burst like a bubble....its all market sentiment and i dont have any whiff of it as major financial institutions have no BTCUSD exposure due to govt regulations...so i cant feel market pulse.....this is pure unbiased chart analysis
Thankfully Elliott can't rise from graves .... otherwise he would have sued someone for plagiarism
see the previous chart for predicted stochastic and market movements
enjoy conventional TA
today's dump could be easily predicted if people understood their mass psychology behavior
conventional targets aligning more and more with 5000!
Elliott analysis could point that much in advance
this is the weekly BTCUSD chart i am referring to
or vice versa....to liquidate maximum holdings
fireworks are in offing!
but any dump or pump here will be difficult to control....i mean squeezes can occur
so far a small dump and then pump seems like more likely scenario
conventional analysis can easily reach reliable conclusions
if you see the charts in detail you will see what kind of candles form at price reversal points......also see conventional japanese candlestick patterns at those times
if price tests 8500+ again, then again see divergence and just short it
just for education
all you need to do is follow the trend line drawn from previous two market tops
but remember this is not a longer term call....you will have to literally check your computer every hour to see where to book profits......you can see bullish divergences on RSI stochastic and MACD histogram ....
the correct entry point is at bottoms of RSI and stochastic....good trading is all about patience and timing your entry ...you can book handsome profits also in side trading markets
this is how some professional traders pick 100 x leverage trades and make money.......but you need immense discipline to trade this way.......and exquisite attention to timing
its actually very demanding to trade this way
but just want to show you how professional traders work
so one of the key secrets to successful trading is to look at multiple time frames and then placing bets only when you are sure of an outcome.....dont trade all the time!
last tip.....i have said multiple times in this long post......whenever you want to spot a genuine reversal of larger trend.....look at daily weekly and monthly charts!
price right now 8231!
perfect text book case!
oversold stochastic shows what to expect
would be interesting to see MACD histogram once they reach there on hourly chart!
price staying static
this usually happens when most players are bots. they trigger automatic buy and sell orders
I'd be interested to hear how you juggle the competing signals. A clear and simple divergence on the 1-day, at RSI bottom, as opposed to EW analysis. Thanks for any and all thoughts.