jitenjaipuria

Bitcoin trade setup for people with family and kids

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I see a lot of retailers trying to day or swing trade bitcoin and ending up losing all or most of their capital. Here i will try to explain if recent developments make sense from a charting perspective using basic simple indicators that are rarely wrong in as plain english as i can. its amazing how people tend to follow same cyclical impulsive behavior again and again. Now RSI is an indicator which fluctuates from top to down (see the purple line and purple shaded area below). i have marked the bottom with red marks in the chart. tops usually coincide with market tops while bottoms usually coincide with market bottom. However, in real life RSI does not swing perfectly from top to bottom in an harmonic fashion. sometimes RSI can reach a top and then fall a bit and then reach top again and then later bottom out. its important to understand that RSI trails the market, meaning that RSI will tell what happened 'up to now'. It wont tell what will happen tomorrow. But over time we have determined some general trends which we can use to our advantage. now what happened over previous one year was this - Bitcoin rose from lows of 2000 to dizzying heights of 20000. this is very important because people still carry memories of both events. this explains the sentiment of bulls and bears in market and you would see analysts predicting either of 13000 or 5000 as next move. now i have drawn the trend line of bitcoin which it has respected through recent RSI bottoms. before moving next you must also understand the concept of bullish and bearish divergence. bearish divergence occurs when RSI hits a high and price hits a top. then price dips somewhat and RSI dips too. then price hits a higher high but RSI hits a high which is lower than its previous high. bearish divergence should be sought usually in market tops while bullish divergence which is reverse of this happens in the market bottom. both of these indicate market reversal. i have marked both bullish and bearish divergences that occured in recent past with green color. bearish divergence usually indicates that RSI bottom is due in the next corrective wave from market high and the possibility that RSI will reverse up midway reaching a higher than the previous high without touching bottom first is low. you can easily also see on charts how markets are a perpetual bear and bull cycle but with an overall upward trend. so now that you understand these hard indicators you can get an inkling of near future with more clarity.
so here is what to reasonably expect and logic for why it would happen -
1) we are coming down from a bearish divergence top on RSI . so it is more likely that we are not going to see an over the top RSI again. this nearly rules out 13000 or even 10000 scenario before we hit the market bottom.
2) RSI never goes down in a straight line from top. somewhere in middle it sqiggles up for a brief while midway. this explains why momentum for downfall stalled midway and you saw price jump from 8200 to 8700 and this could still go higher but should stay below 9300 for all practical purposes as that was where markets had consolidated for quite a while during this fall before continuing further (remember what was support previously becomes resistance later).
3) now the rising trendline has beautifully respected the RSI bottoms and if you see the cyclical trends of RSI with time and i have marked some possible points with arrow on future time frame then its easy to understand why market and RSI bottom is likely to coincide with 7400 or so with very low probability of being lower. The longer it takes to reach the market bottom the more likely it is that market bottom will be still higher.
4) you can easily see how double bottom and bullish RSI divergence with RSI bottom and rising trend lines perfectly matched at 6700 in april and this is why hedge funds like panthera capital gave a confident statement that worst for bitcoin was over.


Comment: now here are the logical extensions to near future without using fancy unintuitive elliot waves or patterns which dont make immediate sense.
1)if markets hold on to price levels above 8000 and RSI hits a bottom then next cycle up would cross 13000 with ease and then will moon up because gradually people holding shorts from 20,19,18 k will begin closing their positions and buy back into market.
2) do not try to day or margin trade for now. these are now choppy waters and price may stall to a gradual decline with unpredictable swings which only very experienced day traders can see.
3) for markets to make a correction to levels below 7k bearish momentum has to be great and strong which will become less and less likely as time passes.
4) throughout april and may we were in a bear market and it was easy to predict that market will likely not reach higher than 10000 as RSI top this bull cycle was higher than previous bull cycle to 11000 in march and yet price was stalling at 9800....another bearish sign ...so market fall was imminent
Comment: it is easy to spot the bearish divergence on market top near 20000.....see the price move from 7 dec to 17 dec 2017.....it was going higher and higher but RSI was making a lower high.....this automatically meant a RSI decline to bottom was imminent.....and trend line could predict the bottom
Comment: when markets have retraced from a dizzying height then RSI top for next bull cycle usually stays lower than previous high.....and we saw that in april......now this may the market RSI top was higher.......so it means that next bull cycle will see market top reach even higher......if our estimate of 7400 holds true then then it would also mark the breakout from falling wedge pattern from market high of 20000
Comment: another reason why break above 13000 on next bull cycle is likley is because people on street have now become sensitised to the idea of a bitcoin price close or above 4 digits ....previously 20000 was simply too dizzy!
market sentiment is very very important....all charts are mathematical evaluation of sentiments only
Comment: seeing the bull bear cycle...you can easily see how may 25 or so will be the culmination of this cycle and how prediction of some gurus as to how bitcoin will make a new high will most likely come true......remember....the initial bounce up will be a short squeeze again maybe ;)
Comment: so traders with family and kids.....wait for RSI to reach bottom....then make a not too greedy long entry after confirming market bottom with few more indicators. try to hold trades till RSI reaches a top again....and then take a call on profits!
avoid leverage in next 10 days and save your capital for next bull run :)
Comment: remember...trend lines are drawn from RSI bottom.....the low on 11 nov 2017 should not factor into trend line...also the lower tail of red and green candles in feb 2017 almost perfectly hit the trend line
Comment: some people often quote a log scale chart of bitcoin......i dont see it as correct as it is in a major way artificially affected by mtgox scandal....where the artificially jacked prices.....i think more recent market moves in these two years should be seen to assess trends.....forget 2014 !
Comment: so remember the fodder for market cycles is human desire to make more money ...in simple words.....greed.....the bare truth of market is that big fish feed on the small fish.......meaning smart money feeding on retailers......the fodder for next leg of RSI down will be retailers and some traders who feel market will moon from mid way........the fodder for ultimate leg up of RSI from predicted bottom will be those who resisted the idea of market mooning up but bought instead the idea of market hitting bottom of 5000 or 4000 and becoming fodder for short squeeze......sorry...but this is how market is!
Comment: Now the way I trade is anticipate an idea and seek one confirmation of it.....so I suggest people to seek confirmation with few more indicators before placing positions.....I don't like trading in middle of RSI waves.....if you are so greedy that you can't wait few months for a better trade opportunity then your future is not so good....the virtues of successful traders are patience and nerves of steel.....if say we are approaching 7800 near may 25 and bearish momentum is declining and market hits a double bottom on daily chart then this is what I would agree to be a valid confirmation......see also volumes on those days....it should be large sell volumes but price not moving down as much in proportion
Comment: This is the 14 day RSI that I have used.....you can use lower time frame RSIs if you really want to forecast short term market moves.....though I have stopped doing those kind of trades
Comment: so just remember.....RSI follows its own nearly symmetrical cycle....which is somewhat correlated to market cycle......the absolute RSI top is somewhat midway between two bottoms.....this is a simpler generalization of course
Comment: also, bitcoin provides two clear opportunities to earn....one at market top and another at market bottom......even if you miss market bottom.....you can spot market top......also one more thing.....bitcoin always provides two opportunities at top and two at bottom to identify market top and bottom each.....and lastly.....it will always give you another cycle to trade if you miss the last one! :)
Comment: at some point of time in this or future cycles bitcoin will reset itself on a newer trendline....which would accomodate a future market cap of 1 trillion or higher.....when that event is going to happen you would see an RSI bottom much above this established trendline.....
Comment: today is may 17 ....unless RSI squiggles up once more on its way down......we might reach market bottom sooner than may 25.....in fact it may reach within next three days .....although i would have liked it to reach a bit later
Comment: so this is may 18 with bitcoin trading at 8000 and analysts predicting another wave down....my analysis now suggests a wave upwards to 8200-8300 range and then precipitous drop to 7800....then sharp 8000 again which people would confuse as the uptrend and then another sharp drop to 7400 and sideways...hopefully market bottom...i dont know how to add more charts in this thread.....if someone could sponsor me professional membership then may be i could explain in detail why i feel so :)
Comment: somebody personal messaged me about some futures FUD.........in general markets are very difficult to push down in oversold RSI conditions .... nearly hell would need to break lose near may 25 for markets to go below 7000......i would love to explain price volume market action.....but i would need volume bars on chart and unfortunately they are not available in free membership of TV......you can read up elsewhere about it......if you read that literature elsewhere then you would easily see that volume sales of nearly 40000 btc per exchange per day would be needed to push prices further down below 7000
Comment: but in any case......we are not chasing intra day trades here when we have families to take care of.....all we need is the ability to spot market bottom.....if the bottom is 5000 then so be it......right now market neither deserves buying....nor selling.....and you can see it on price volume action graphs on other websites....bitfinex 24 hr volume was 800+ coins today.....which is pennies.....maybe i will do a detailed post on price volume action some other time or add it in this post only to make it the ultimate BTC trading guide.....was going through posts of top traders today and they were all splitting hairs..........i dont understand why so much confusion......all market moves so far were so simple to predict!
Trade active: figured out the way to take screenshot....lets hope this graph displays correctly.....so here you would see RSI on a different time frame for shorter term predictions......and you can see it doing same stuff as RSI on bigger time frames.....tops and bottoms.....
Comment: thanx for 1000 views and 100+ reputation points in two days......humbled......hope i could help you save a tonne of confusion and calm down nerves :)
Comment: So somebody personal messaged me .....which time frame chart and RSI should we use and why...... well this is one fundamental secret that traders must get right and it comes with some experience.......so put it straight.......not every time frame would give you a profitable trade.....for example recent market moves of bitcoin are best seen on hourly chart......i zeroed in on it after i saw it accurately predict the 9000-9300 bear flag with correct RSI bottoms and tops......image is attached below.....

the 4 hourly chart hinted it but RSI bottom for same price action was way too oversold.....now you dont want a chart which goes too much unpredictable in its depth of heights and bottoms.......image of 4 hourly chart is attached below.....hopefully TV will allow two images
Comment: sorry......TV didnt allow me to post different images in single comment......disregard the second image.....its same as first one
Comment: see this 4 hourly chart.....the 8776 market top didnt reach the top of purple zone.....you dont want this chart to guide you.....because you would still wait at that point for RSI to still go higher ......while in one hour chart it did max out......now some people just juggle through all time frame charts to make up their mind....but i find that over time it adds to confusion.....what i found was that once a trend is somewhat established.....you would find a particular time frame chart that captures it more accurately than others.....so use that instead of others......
Comment: so what to do if you were instead using 4 hourly chart there.......remember the adage.....in a declining market.....previous support becomes resistance.....so here 8800 became resistance for the bear flag on may 15 as markets has consolidated there from april 23-26 and also few days ago ....of course this needs experience.....but is certainly understandable.....hourly chart would have more clearly told you that we have hit the top.....so learning to identify correct time frames is very important....even today i saw few top traders pointing weird pictures on 4 hourly and another one on weekly time frame chart......they are going to mislead
Comment: so here is summary of last few comments....
would you seek long term market bottom on 1 hours chart - no,,,,,,4 hour chart------no,,,,,,, daily chart-----yes.............
would you do intraday trade on daily chart ----- no,,,,,,,4 hourly chart----no (it would need some experience like spotting support and resistances and also things like rsi doesnt max out after a deep bottom which follows a steep fall).....1 hourly chart-----yes.....
could you forever keep using same charts......no......
when should you change your charts......when a trend becomes invalidated and a new trend is formed..
how to spot a chart to follow - ----- just see which time frame shows RSI in correct proportions with observed tops and bottoms in price action!
Comment: lastly,,,,,how do you confirm if things are still going as per your chart....answer.....understanding price volume action
Comment: here is the hourly chart of market prior to this bull run......remember....never jump to sell at RSI bottom.....wait for one more confirmation....it will squiggle up and come down again to tell you......similarly dont sell at first RSI top.....it will squiggle down and up again to tell you a place.....look for divergences at bottoms and tops.....if divergences are seen then aberrant RSI stunts like rising and falling midway are less likely ....of course if market has retraced majorly prior to this bottom then RSI top will stay lower
Comment: so here is a so called sideways period of market movement when bull market had stalled at 9000 resistance.....you could day trade it profitably using correct hourly chart
Comment: with this i will close this thread....i hope it brought some clarity to you.....and would save you dollars now and in years to come.....keep caring for your families and kids and enjoy life .......dont drown yourself in noise of market and self styled gurus who cant even draw one correct chart themselves.....as i close this bitcoin is trading at 8220.....setting a nice little bull trap......the squiggle up prior to bottom ;)
Comment: BTC looks to extend the last few squiggles up before reaching market bottom....good for the long term market....may 25 still looks on the cards though
Comment: this is a good learning activity.......today is may 20 and markets seem stable around 8320 with a uptrend from recent low of 7900.....time to buy back in.......NO........the price volume action suggests that this uptrend is not supported by volumes......so its a corrective squiggle in broader downtrend.....the market bottom is still away......and our charts are still on track......remember .....when participating volumes are low then even 200 btc buy order can raise price 100 USD.....but the moment market gains any significant height then crash becomes inevitable as people begin cashing profits
Comment: somebody PMed me this trend line and suggested that marker bottom will be 30th may and somewhere around 7000....well my original trendline respected more number of historical bottoms.....and 7400 versus 7000 are not too off.....the whole idea is to spot a bottom.....the higher this weak rally grows ...the juicier short opportunity it will become.....and if the greedy shorts dont give up.....the they become fodder for short squeeze....the saddest part of market cycles is that emotional people FOMO for longs at market top and shorts at market bottom!
Comment: omkar godbole is a respected author at coin desk and he published today what i have been suggesting since few days now.....Bull trap unless volumes emerge somehow!......but i have seen this repeatedly with bitcoin.....it alternates bull with bear traps.....right now all seasoned traders need are nerves and patience....
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-back-ab...
Comment: so this latest bull cycle....which may be coming to an end now.....started around april 5......its interesting to see if top TA advisors on TV had got it right at that time.......
Botje initially got it wrong....but then corrected himself.....

magic poop cannon was telling we will reach 4100!...and by the way he was calling himself master pattern recognition!

D4rkenergy was epic......he was suggesting 4887 at market bottom and mooning bitcoin at market top!

I dont mean to make fun of these people.....but only show how its difficult to make predictions in this market when your charts and analysis are very superficial and not backed by long term trends.....anyone who was predicting a major drop to 4000 at an oversold RSI has poor understanding of market fundamentals!
Comment: one very common mistake that i see big TV authors make is.....choosing wrong time frames to make patterns like head and shoulders etc......for bitcoin they only make sense on hourly chart......dont make them on daily chart.......you will be horribly wrong!
Comment: now that we are nearing market bottom......though i expect bitcoin to make one more corrective wave up before reaching there and potentially delaying may 25.....i would explain how the shape of market bottom is affected by 'rubber band effect'.....so this effect in simple words is this......if we approach market bottom with great velocity....like a 1000 point drop or something like that....then market simply recoils back to a bull cycle......while if we reach it in gradual steps....then it tends to form more conventional patterns like double bottom which should be easier to recognise for experienced traders.....you can see examples of both in this and previous bull cycles......see 5th feb and 5th april on 1 day chart
Comment: its amazing how suddenly all TV authors seem to agree with the bottom level that i predicted.......much longer before them........
So D4rkenergy has somehow changed his stance to match with mine about market bottom...earlier he was saying bottom is 7900-8000ish....he is known to change his stance all the time

Botje is saying today what i said many days ago

this guy is giving horrible advise to go short at market bottom and long at market top.....bull cycle does not start near market top after crossing a threshold.....it actually starts at market bottom.....opposite hold true for bear cycle.....

magicpoopcannon is consistently saying 3000......which i dont see happening in near future unless WW3 starts
Comment: this guy made a wonderful fib chart that i find useful for trade predictions
Comment: 7677 and going down....too much velocity.....as per fib levels the retracement has potential to go to 7373....if we reach destination too soon then the trend line will be broken......also.....rubber band effect tells that if we reach 7400 with a consolidation zone not too high above it then its very likely that 7400 will be broken.....we must approach 7500 from a height of 8000 or so.....7700 height means trend will be broken leading to a lower bottom
Comment: this is my hourly chart with my original trend line......if we hit today or tomorrow without retracement then confluence is 7300......well in agreement with fib levels
Comment:
Comment: damn....the momentum just doesn't seem to slow down.....the bottom will be recoil type bottom i guess.....which is like catching a knife.....now to wait and see on RSI and possibly confirm on MACD cross...will also have to trade with stop loss.....hate having to constantly watch trend.....night (23:33 pm) here in this country!.....will try update tomorrow....
Comment: The RSI has begun squiggles just above expected market bottom......this is actually not a good sign......this means bears are consolidating and the final move down could actually take RSI to much lower levels than what happened in last two cycles.....before we reach market bottom.....one guy with moving waters theory has long been saying 6900.....these moves could actually align with his target..... Fib levels align with 6984.....people should not get confused with these market moves.......it's not bottom yet probably
Comment: If market goes up from here then it will be another false breakout..
.which will come crashing down....perfect exploit for market manipulation
Comment: market update
Comment: so the moving waters guy posted an update and is now saying a sell off to 5000 range......i have been seeing some worrying signs too and kept saying for past few days that momentum is different and unrelenting this time......you could see it in the RSI move which refused to touch bottom and stayed well above 30 despite market reaching 7300 in intra day trading which we predicted......i see more and more merit in a market move below 7000.....now some people have long being saying quoting a log scale chart of bitcoin that 5000 + is the level which bitcoin must touch to restart a new cycle.....godbole made some interesting observations in his latest article.......
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-closing...
he also made the same observation on RSI as me.......quoting - "Further, the relative strength index (RSI) is below 50.00 (in the bearish territory), but holding well above 30.00 (oversold territory), indicating enough room for a sell-off towards $7,000."
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-faces-d...
enjoy!
Comment: the fib chart i mentioned previously mentions 5550 as last possible retracement level......no here is how RSI is supposed to behave when a sell off to 5000 is going to happen.....i still maintain that 4k or 3k is only possible if WW3 begins....now price volume action is one method to recognize false divergences on RSI......usually genuine market bottoms are very busy places......you would see large sell and buy volumes.....so lookout for them for confirmation.....here is the chart from 2014 which shows what to expect if we are actually headed 5000+ in midterm
Comment: this moving water guy intrigues me though....i asked him references to read about his methods.....he didnt give me any!.....i am a conventional analyst and so far i could easily predict all major market moves including the day markets would hit 7300....i can even predict 6900 ....but i dont know any indicator which predicts 5000 when we were at 9800.......this guy has been saying this since long......in conventional market analysis we are taught fib levels and market bubble cycles.....and i could say 5500 with end of this bubble cycle based on that.....but this guy has so far got interim targets right.....fluke or wisdom.....i dont know.....he refuses access to his knowledge.....but we arent doing any worse either!
Comment: this guy has done a nice price volume action analysis that i regularly mentioned and essentially reached the same conclusion that we are not at market bottom....its good to know fancy indicators.....but you can reach same conclusion with much simpler analysis like i showed....but its always good to see a confirmation
Comment: final word.....bitcoin is forming a large bearflag......preparing for final touchdown hopefully......target 7100-6900....from there a bounce will occur......if we don't clear 7600 then the next sell off will be 5900
here are the expected movements on 4hr chart

expected movements on 1hr chart

large sell off will occur when three cardinal signs coincide.....RSI top on 4hr and 1hr charts and lack of large volume break away from 7600 range
Comment: any breakout before hitting 7100 will be a bull trap and an excellent short opportunity
Comment: we are trading at 7300.....the height of bear flag should stay below 7600...lets hope markets touchdown at hoped for end points......5k range would be a bit extreme for bulls.....poor things......
Comment: so final words for this thread......remember......successful trading is all about timing......if you want to enter right now.....then immediate scenario is bullish for 100-200 (or god knows if higher) USD.....but then later 1hr and 4hr RSI tops will coincide.....MACD will cross over and a large sell off of probably 500 USD will occur (god knows if it would go even lower)......what i suggest is that you wait for that moment....and spend next few days with wife and kids......then short the final fall (if its final......if its not final it will still be a profitable trade)....then await confirmations......to go long again
Comment: see how i had spotted the final end point of bear flag at 8500 and shorted...this is the one hour chart

this is the four hour chart at same moment

so this is how you spot an interim top in a bear trend
Comment: and here is how you spot a market bottom......i cant show you MACD cross in charts here because i am not a pro member and my charts cant show more than three indicators...but MACD cross also occurred and gave a buy signal.......now remember......absolute (meaning end of bull or bear cycle) market tops or bottoms must be first sought on daily chart......
this is the daily chart
Comment: and this was how i used simple indicators to spot absolute market top this bull cycle.....remember....stochastic RSI always leads the trend.....MACD cross had also occurred......so like always......we would be interested in daily chart

and this was the 4hr chart
Comment: so you need not chase fancy indicators.....and simple indicators if analyzed with a clear mind can give you a profitable trade.....i dont know why traders over analyze things and create an unnecessary phobia in minds that crypto is unpredictable.....well everything is unpredictable in a sense....the whole idea here is to spot a trend and then flow with it......the problem will start when you begin wishing for a particular trend and then develop confirmation bias and search too much literature to confirm your bias...this is recipe for disaster.....i am least interested in where crypto is headed.....if it goes 5000 or 3000 or 300000 .....all i am interested in is spotting the buy and sell cycles......and trust me .....they are so obvious unless you complicate the analysis with over analysis......dont try to look too far in your trading.....too far ahead analysis are actually suited for value investing......like buying stock today and hodling it for ling periods......that is when you dont really want to buy at market tops preceding a long bear cycle......
happy trading......i hope i could keep the analysis simple, logical and reproducible so that even newbies could gain confidence in trading crypto!
Comment: in summary.....all you will need for 99% profitable trades are....1hr, 4hr, and daily charts.....RSI and stochastic RSI.....MACD.....fibonnaci levels.....some understanding of volumes and price action
rest all is for some fun reading.....and showing off and scaring newbies (including confusing yourself in the process and developing deep biases).....enjoy!.....busy work week ahead for me ....may not be able to update so frequently now
Comment: and remember few finer points about stochastic RSI....in a sideways moving market.....stochastic RSI stays in sync with price ups and downs.....in a upward or downward trending market.....it may precede the actual price action......always confirm on conventional RSI also as to where markets are potentially headed
Comment: we are trading at 7500+ and many people have updated their charts to long position on BTC USD
my analysis .....consistent with whatever i have explained so far.....predicts the opposite
Comment: this guy has done an elliot wave analysis of bitcoin.....its a perfect example of misinterpreted theory
long term elliot waves should be drawn from market tops to bottoms.....and remember ....elliot waves are a simplification.....markets dont follow straight lines.....they swiggle around them

this is what i feel are correctly drawn elliot waves for bitcoin
Comment: unless we clear 7600 with volumes....it could be difficult times ahead for bitcoin
Comment: so someone personal messaged me and asked about medium term bitcoin analysis....honestly.....till now i had never bothered about it...but now have done it......and matches moving water guy theory.....
will post chart tomorrow
Comment: so i hope you closed your short trade at bottom of 1hr chart today.....even if you didnt get time....do it now.....we had called this at 7550......you would have made a profit of 200USD x leverage if you closed it correctly...the markets may still go down ...but dont be greedy
i dont usually give calls.....but i did this so as to practically demonstrate opportune entry and exit points in cycles
Comment: so right now what exactly is happening in bitcoin...
an amazing coincidence happened.....as i was thinking to write today my medium term predictions for bitcoin as promised.....omkar godbole did the same today itself
He likes to use moving averages a lot....while i can easily reach the same conclusions using RSI ....right now we can spot a bullish diversion in 4hr chart....this essentially means that we are in a corrective rally...and bottom has likely been reached at 7050 for the immediate present.....and it tallied beautifully on the daily chart as i explained in my previous posts....here is the daily chart and link to godbole's article

https://www.coindesk.com/this-long-term-...
Comment: this is the 4 hr chart with bullish divergence at bottom
Comment: so now that i gave you a short call.....let me also give a long call.....you enter long when 4hr stochastic RSI falls to bottom on 4hr chart which i posted just above....you might catch a wind up ;)
but this cycle is likely to test your nerves with more frequent ups and downs precluding use of high leverage
Comment: you can go long even now actually :)
Comment: but remember...this long call is not for long term....only day trade....1 or max 2 days
Comment: i have been preparing a tutorial for Elliot waves which will simply blow away your mind.....just 15 minutes of no nonsense talk and it will debunk your myth forever that bitcoin does not follow conventional technical analysis.....bitcoin is the most accurate follower of elliot waves ever!...its just that people dont know how to make correct elliot waves!....its only for people serious about learning tips and tricks of trading bitcoin.....personal message me for details.....i might be able to spare some time on weekend!
Comment: so i gave the long call at 7420......right now we are at 7493 and had crossed 7500 momentarily......dont be too greedy and close the long trade now if you cant digest few ups and downs from here.....
Comment: the elliot wave theory predicted this.....however the most important point is that you could predict this with super confidence allowing you to confidently trade with leverage!
Comment: now see the daily chart......there appears to be a red candle in formation....right now the candle is still forming.....it can even turn green.....if this candle finally forms itself as red (and there may or may not be one more small red candle next to it)...and markets stay above 7300....then a significant green candle with height of 200 usd (or maybe even more) is expected.....if this candle finally forms green....then we expect a red candle to form sometime soon afterwards with next green candle in offing.....short story is ...we are headed 7600+.....try finding a price in 7450 range or so to enter while market does its fluctuations....will update calls on this wave periodically......happy profiting!
Comment:
Comment: Elliot update ....we are around 7500...we are on track
..you can go long at any good entry point say 7480 or lower if you catch it....the downward correction will start once RSI on 4 he chart maximises.....from there markets will go red.....if they stay above 7300.....you will catch wind to 7600 hopefully.....another option is to wait 4hr RSI to Max out and then catch down spiral and then go up again if markets stay above 7300
Comment: So this 4 hr RSI top and bottom will confirm if we have broken out genuinely or are looking at bottom......of course we don't care where markets are headed because as per good trading practices we don't wish the market to go a particular way.....we just want to flow with markets......so far multiple indicators are telling we are going up for some time ahead in general.....
Comment: Hope you had gone long.....we zoomed up
Comment: Phew....what a day...calling day trading calls for the most exciting curreency on planet using Elliot waves....I hated day trading because I can't sit on computer terminal all the time....like today we barely caught this long wave up.....I had initially thought to close trade at 7500....but then candles showed continuing Elliot 3rd wave.....so asked to catch uptrend again
Comment:
Comment: see the hourly chart.....we will see this fractal of RSI and price movement repeat because elliott wave supports this kind of price action for now......dump after a false break on upside is imminent.....but i think a breakout to 7.8k is due too after that......we may be headed 8k+ next week after some consolidation at 7.8k.... RSI follows certain cardinal patterns......try to learn them......
Comment: i mean stochastic RSI......it has its own patterns and you can easily spot them with regular practice.......conventional RSI has its own set of distinctive patterns.....these patterns follow Elliot waves in sync
Comment:
Comment: here is the hourly chart showing we are on track for a 100+ USD fall


BUT BUT BUT something else is cooking up too as per elliot and RSI wave analysis
Comment: usually i see large market moves not happen on weekends but reserved for mondays.....indicating market movers holiday.....lets see how things pan out
Comment: so fractals are anticipated market movements drawn with reference to historical standards......mostly i see half baked analysts picking up only price movement graphs from history and saying next market moves will be like this....or that....and then getting invalidated more often than not.....
a valid anticipated fractal should also be backed by market sentiment similar to historical time frame.....so always look at RSI and some other indicators too....before going in
today i demonstrated how a breakout is looking imminent.....and how present market movements are a summation of one fractal from past few days and another from two months ago......
markets follow mass psychology principles.....which need a clear unbiased mind to analyse.....i am neither a bull nor bear......only a hummingbird that follows both bulls and bears wherever they go!
one day i saw D4rkenergy picking up S&P chart and drawing fractal comparison......me and fellow colleagues had the laugh of lifetime that day.....
the guy has gone silent for past many days...looks busy......normally i see his predictions and use them as self confirmation whenever they are opposite to what i feel ;)
Comment:

Comment: since C wave has already retraced to wave 2 of last 5 waves down.....it confirms this is a genuine breakout
Comment: in the text box in elliot wave figure....read 1 wave down instead of A wave down
Comment: so we are on track....we predicted a false wave up from 7600....now we just wait for a corrective wave down to enter....if you are a non leverage trader....you can enter even now.....if you like risks and can sit in front of a computer ...you can short the wave down and then long the way up.......if you are risk averse....you can await for breakout to confirm
Comment: tomorrow professional traders are going to get active.
they would obviously notice the lack of participating volumes (meaning people willing to buy 400-500 btc in order to break resistances) in this rally....
they would also notice the corrective move needed right now......they never buy on oversold 4hr RSI
we are below all major trendlines too
just wait and see......we will have a move down......if the move truncates above 7400.....market would have chosen its direction for next weeks......if the move continues down.......well.....well.....well......6900 in sight......and then god knows what!
i still feel we should be up......but all depends on noobs to fomo......if they dont fomo.......then traders by themselves cant do much in a zero sum game
on the contrary .....if the markets move up.....then it will be a historical day of 5 consecutive green candles for BTC!
Comment: Wow. Everything in sync with classical TA charts. So we hit all predictions correct over last five days......so much for calling Bitcoin unpredictable. Actually Bitcoin is the most beautiful unadulterated symbol of human emotions..... remember when we short or long markets.....then we are always trying to manipulate it....the problem with most analysts is Bias......they are biased towards one or the other idea......or trend.....that's when they develop confirmation bias......I don't think magic poop Cannon is a bad analyst......he is just so sold on one idea that he can't see the reality even when it faces him.....Bitcoin follows all technical indicators within their limits....simply because technical indicators are modeled on human emotions......even whales are emotional.....I have done some original research on technical analysis on Bitcoin and have already written much of that research above......some other ideas are on Elliot waves which have some quirks when it comes to Bitcoin ....and so far no one has published it before......will do so in a reputed finance journal or book sometime.....with that research you can easily spot market moves and tops and bottoms....will soon be posting explanation of all major market moves in history of Bitcoin....and it will all be logical and self explanatory....once you understand the methods I have described in this post
Comment: I really felt sad when yesterday some traders were posting long charts aiming for 7900.....some were waiting for short opportunity at 7800....both these groups are disoriented to market moves......they are the folder on whom market feeds.....sometimes I feel I should publicise my charts more....but then do people really care to read lengthy ideas......they just want spoon fed calls!
Comment: so trading view cant verify my mobile and so i can no longer respond to personal messages till they sort it out.....so someone asked me source of my ideas on elliot waves.....like i mentioned its my own original research and unpublished anywhwere so far.....i have found some unique ways in which elliot waves behave when it comes to bitcoin.....i also found it to agree with conventional stocks....its a very lengthy paper.....but allows prediction of immediate moves with precision.....and also spot reversals.....which is all that matters
Comment: the moment of reckoning arrives......it all depends on noobs now to follow calls of bullish traders

Comment: first of my series on long term bitcoin price movements
Comment: this explains the logic
the moving water guy refuses to share his methods
but i increasingly suspect they are humbug. maybe someone using the tactic of
creating an aura of mystery to attract followers
simple RSI, MACD and momentum oscillators can explain
all market moves in recent past
basic elliott wave analysis can predict all major market moves over longer term
i am posting these charts to see what happens from here
this guy has predicted a bull trap and then price down to 6900 and 5700 or what
my analysis is conventional but says something else but with common end point.
and my analysis is not cryptic....but logical and consistent so that even you can reach similar conclusions and trade profitably in future!!!!!....if you consider this long idea now as a trading guide
Comment: so......6th consecutive day of correct calls based on elliott waves.......correctly called long at 7300.....correctly told you false break up from 7600 to 7700 and then short at 7700.....then gave you correct call for bottom at 7400.....then correctly told you 7600 again.......so now what!
if i were a whale......i would do this......lolz

well i am not a whale....just an analyst..... do you know i dont even trade bitcoin.....this allows me unbiased reviews of market moves.....happy trading....and remember......i gave clear cut end points when everyone else was confused.....well we will also have a short squeeze soon......its market and elliott rules!!!!!!!
Comment: i do all this for a hobby......well i have spoon fed you enough now......if you do some effort and keep going through my post again and again.....you will realise that i have practically given you all the material to successfully trade bitcoin ....forever........elliott waves i cant teach here.....very lengthy.....but i have drawn enough waves for you to profit from for next 3 months.....and learn elliott waves on your own.......
i live in India and will now be going on summer vacations starting tomorrow.....so updates will be erratic
if you really like it.....spread my post around......poor noobs losing money all the time following half baked analysts.....enjoy!
Comment: and thank you for all the appreciation.....i was overwhelmed.....2000+ views.....so many personal messages telling me how people saved money......and how they finally could see through the unpredictability of market....thank you....remember.......simple analysis are best analysis.....complicated ones are confirmation bias and more often then not recipe for failure.....
do you know you can trade stocks also using all the ideas in this post......just that stocks have a slow turnover time.....i like bitcoin because its unadulterated human emotion at display......i see it from research point of view.
regards and bye for now
Comment: and other than the long term chart.....other elliot charts may not be to scale regarding last wave......i just drew them to give an idea of direction of price movement.....so dont read them literally!
Comment: sitting at airport and getting one after another personal messages of people thanking me for elliott wave update yesterday and warning them about corrective price movement up to 7600 today and then the incoming dump
there is only one trader i added to following list and its the moving water guy....i did that because he claimed a new method which i never heard before.....and now he has given update for 6900 and down again.....
well if someone was to ask me that what was the anticipated bottom of this correction in jan 2018.....i would have said 5700 without drawing a single chart as per elliott wave rule which gives bottom of abc correction as low of 4th wave of lesser cycle.....now i could have called it 'moving alcohol theory' and confused everyone ;)
so the reason i follow him is this....elliot waves are the king of all technical analysis....while RSI and other indicators are clergy.....i want to see if he has something to offer which defeats the king......so for all he has been saying is 5700 and bull traps....dont we know all moves up in a down trend are bull traps in a sense.....while elliott wave theory keeps giving accurate ups and downs both at shorter and longer time frames.....one trader bleek drew and interim chart in mid corrective cycle and i think it was a fluke....because his next corrective chart was going down all the way...and i feel he will be proven wrong....and both him and moving water guy cant explain their stand with clear reproducible logic.....i think no matter what others say......the real issue at hand is bias and lack of clarity in mind in doing correct conventional analysis....you see this repeatedly....teach same theory to a class of 100.....and yet final examination results reveal one topper all the time!
flying off in another hour.....enjoy......will some time post in future how to trade when actual bull run resumes.....as till now we were in triangle formations.....but for guys with family and kids it just means one well timed long position for simplicity.....though most rules in this post would still apply.....but still you can trade better
Comment: Last dump upcoming tonight and then sustainable rally due till 8000 plus hopefully....the lower this dump goes....the stronger the rebound rally...we may momentarily go above 7800
Comment: Meaning an up move to 7800 + before dump
Comment: all dips down getting bought
longs going up on exchanges
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/3uJ2Ok...
authors saying now what we spotted and anticipated long ago
https://www.coindesk.com/bullish-signals...
Comment: 7th consecutive day of correct calls!!!!
now PAMP due soon once 4hr RSI hits bottom ;)
Comment: warning!.....dont give up this position till we hit market top....end point of which i have mentioned already
Comment: i meant 4hr stochastic RSI!.....conventional 4 hr RSI is in a very long cycle right now
Comment: market still has a large downside potential.....wait for 4 hr stochastic RSI to hit rock bottom
Comment: its still dump for now!....till 4hr stoch RSI hits underground level
Comment: call after call after call going correct.......i am myself surprised....BTC had dumped 30 USD after my call and then first 5min chart went up....then 15 minute and then big candle up......maybe whales are modelling same indicators as me......i had modelled an elliott wave 12345abc pattern with last dump which i called as c wave down....had added covnetional and stochastic RSIs to call the exact timing......right down to the last hour.....so now we will have next wave up which will actually be wave 3 of dominant trend......this is the most important and strong wave of this bull cycle.....it will bother least about resistances till 8k plus (with corrections being mostly sideways movements) i guess and will be followed by sharp 4 wave down (as the waves down we saw recently including this last dump were flat waves and constituted wave 2 of dominant trend)....... and then 5th wave up.....we will get a double top again.......like we saw in 11k failed bull run.......wow........
meanwhile most traders are silent or confused.....i dont understand why........almost everybody is drawing wrong elliott waves.....we saw a bullish diagnoal pattern 5 wave up recently where wave 4 comes and overlaps wave 1....sometimes bitcoin can make rare patterns.......
now i will be back after a hiatus.....around top of this trend to continue my research.....i have left you at what i believe is door of wave 3.....and way is up.....lets hope the call is correct.....
Comment: and please dont overleverage yourself.....this bull run 100usd up and down movements can happen out of nowhere....some bots buying and selling in advance....in fact one freak 100 usd down and then quick up wave helped my predict that market wont correct below 7550 for wave c (last dump which i called)....what happened right now is some big traders buying btc in preparation for wave three and closing their shorts forcing a short squeeze
Comment: Short squeeze upcoming.....today or Monday.....time will tell
Comment: Engines have been ignited for take off.....right now we are taxying on the runway slowly towards runway .....wave 1 and 2 of dominant wave 3 completed......now slow movement up...then speed......and lift off!!!!!!!!
Comment: anatomy of pump simplified...why i say what i say.....life is clear when you know your elliott waves
Comment: squeeze postponed to monday
but right now is an excellent time to buy and go long
pump will happen at end of abc correction of a subwave
Comment: original research......pumps happen when 4hr RSI is nearing top but not yet overbought....so wait a few days and work with sideways movement.....which people will confuse as bearish sign and failure to cross 7700....and short.....that's when they are squeezed
Comment: so basically see this 5 wave chart....i think its part of a large wave 1.....then abc happens (which is basically a large wave 2) which brings us back near starting point....people get bearish and then wave 3 magic happens......pump!
Comment: i know this might be overhead transmission right now.....but its ok.....this is why professional advisors like us exist.....you can safely go long here....
Comment: if i am right then 7548 will not be revisited again....no matter what price bull shits around!
Comment: here the psychological mark is 7700-7800.....
Comment: sorry its 7412....thats when whole bullish idea gets invalidated.....that should be your stop loss....though a revisit 7548 also looks less likely......
Comment: if this is the actual c wave forming .....then 7400 is the max level down things can go
Comment: lolz.....i think i am addicted to bitcoin which i dont even trade!
need to break off.....researching bitcoin has taught me much more about conventional markets than markets themselves!
simply because price movements happen so quickly here that we have tremendous fun betting on next move of this 'ponzi scheme' as per warren buffet
we regularly test our theories here and our conventional trading skills have improved!.....i left you with two fractals here....7400+ and then moon.....or 7548+ and moon.....time will tell which one is correct...but its moon none the less.....though with price hovering around 7800 ....i increasingly feel its the latter one.....fits well with market psychology!....depression and then moon.....gives time to rekt some bulls and bears at the same time
Comment: so my suspicion of second chart of yet to complete c wave down came true....
now what from here
let me put it logically for you .....

1) c waves have the potential to retrace almost all the way back to wave 1 ---- 7100 in this case
2) but if we are to believe that next waves are 12345 to upside then stochastic RSI must have legs......yesterday while c wave was forming the stochastic RSI had actually become oversold......way over top in daily chart......now this is a huge red sign......add to it all moving averages above bitcoin......you have issues.....this is why i said a move below 7400 would leave bulls trapped for kill

3) monthly chart still shows a strong fresh wave of negative momentum which i explained and said a move down south was likely in medium term....even if we go up interim
so now what......
though now immediate bullish outlook is likely nullified....how deep can we head....
from an elliott wave perspective the markets have the potential to correct to wave 1 of supercycle......which started from 1980

they can also truncate any point above 2000.....
now the reason why i have difficulty in confidently telling the longer term bottom is that i dont know the intrinsic value of bitcoin.....if you ask me JPYUSD or say oil for example then i can confidently say that 30 usd per barrel is not possible for some length of time or something like that.......
and i dont know anyone who can tell instrinsic value of bitcoin confidently......may say its related to mining costs....but if actually BTC retraces to those levels then it becomes unprofitable for them and then it becomes a vicious cycle....where things can spiral even more down....
its easy to see that the only people who actually maintain the value of bitcoin up are HODLers.....
but people are still sold on the long term value of bitcoin....and that's why it lives
.....
Comment: if it was a conventional stock i would been more confident of 5700.....but its BTC.....and the intrinsic value is something that we just cant tell confidently....but if i am to choose a particular value of BTC as the most likely candidate for most likely possible bottom then i would put it in region of 4k......zone of wave 2 of last supercycle.....this happens quite a lot in conventional stocks.....in fact in a conventional stock where we have hold on pulse of intrinsic value of a company.....any retracement to wave 1 is strongly bought!
Comment:
Comment: so if my investment firm was to say invest here (we dont trade bitcoin though, only study it for research purpose) ...we would wait for either c wave to complete.....or just swing around RSIs looking for clear signals....in fact my colleague back home spotted this divergence which i missed (though we both would have shorted for immediate short term......me imagining a c wave....while he maintains this as a fresh wave down of supercycle)
i will post his chart which he drew when i return
Comment: in fact i already posted his chart on june 3! both of us had agreed that 1 wave down would be very severe (if this was only abc up correction in a donwtrend)....if bulls are to get invalidated...though i believed we were on another triangle formation up before going down.....with my own reasons!
Comment: right now we are bouncing around historical trendline support......now if any bullish theory is to be entertained then 12345abc is over....3rd dominant upwave should begin.....this will start with subwave1.....which will almost retrace itself in subwave2.....then subsubwave 1 of subwave 3.....which will again retrace almost entirely in subsubwave2....then third wave up.......but RSI should support it....meaning trending north......then only any long position should be entertained......so 1hr chart is showing movement.....but 4hr chart is still in dumps......so no long.....short also a but risky.....as 1hr chart still north......normally i sit with another analyst while predicting bitcoin.....which increases our accuracy.....ascending wedges usually break on the upside 70% of time.....but this broke down......we got the 12345 rare diagonal pattern right....but i messed up this last obvious bearish divergence on 4hr chart.....which actually confirms the 30% downside probability of final c wave correction......will return with another clear call with logic explained....and with my colleague again in 7 days......
as for another educational point.....whenever you feel price has stalled in a range.....(usually people use bollinger bands which narrow down)....a major move occurs.....so this is why i said engines have ignited.....the bearish divergence which i have myself stressed so many times would have told about the crash......but i logged off mid way as it was nearing 1am IST
Comment: wow........this was quick and decisive.....so we got this medium term projection right......7800 was the last double top of third triangle (though a very weak one)......we correctly nullified all bullish scenario out......and this is bull KILL ........so now you are looking at wave C of main cycle in play.....now all that remains to be seen......how far will this go?
i mentioned all possible retracement levels.....5700 is 100% fib from top.....2000 is max possible point from elliott wave perspective....
Comment:
Comment: sorry bulls!.......i hope no one was long after i had declared nullified bullish scenario altogether the moment we crossed 7400.....i would consider that a good enough advanced warning
Comment: there is quite a lot of information in this one single post to trade any stock and even bitcoin......in fact major traders use these indicators together most of the time to call trades (RSI, stochastic, moving averages, fibonnaci, elliott, divergences).....what you are seeing is long squeeze.....
over time i have written almost all rules of these indicators and showed their practical application
Comment: so i get a lot of anxious messages asking about what is in store for bulls....i will try to put my perspective consistent with all the logic i have explained so far
first lets understand few things.....
see this



now here is that every bull must know about elliott waves......downward correction waves happen in abc pattern.....but each abc wave has further abc subwaves!

now if you look at my original long term elliott wave chart.......we are in wave c......and this c wave started from 7800.......before that the three double top triangles were all part of wave b which classically forms three triangles commonly...
so now can you guess the scheme of things to come......
1)
2) confirming what i mentioned in a previous market move

so now what.......
we are forming a subsubwave a of downward wave c.......
a subsubwave b is due......means up......
but what will be the outcome.....down!
hope it answers many of your queries.....
now it all depends on where stochastic RSI takes from here
i expect the price to falsely go up.....before this daily stochastic RSI bottoms to accommodate abc pattern of subwave a of dominant wave c
then i expect another major wave up which will actually be subwave b of dominant wave c.........
then i expect final blood bath again in abc pattern.......
sorry.......this is what my conventional analysis points!
so i will suggest to only trade short calls in line of trend......trading long positions could be difficult to manage with marker making sudden moves against you!!!!!
Comment: see my posts on june 10 and june 5 for longer term elliott wave charts
Comment: monthly chart assures me that market bottom is near!
Comment:
Comment: sorry posting corrected charts
Comment: NOW THE LAST WAVE DOWN WILL HAVE A 12345 STRUCTURE
with potential anywhere between 2000 - 6000
it all depends on market sentiment now.....what bottom most price of bitcoin majority choose to believe!
Comment: lolz......made silly mistakes in 12345abc12345 substructure of abc corrective waves.....still need to spend some time not thinking about markets.....
the whole idea here was to warn you about false breakouts.....right now we can breakout back to where we started ....7k....but outcome will be back down even more deep!!!!
by the way......this wave is known to take market sentiment down to depression for bulls!!!!!!
Comment:
Comment: So my colleague and I were discussing the correction that Bitcoin is experiencing right now.....and he felt that it's more of wxy correction pattern rather than abc.....both ways this is the final leg down.....call it w call it c.....but it's still down......the fine print is that if I am right then it will be 12345 down.....if he is right it will be abc down.....but we will know our answers soon
Comment: So one of the hot debates of our research is what is the minimum price people are willing to accept for Bitcoin....and what is the maximum price....
Second topic is will bitcoin ever see a genuine recession....the definition of a genuine recession is when we retrace back in correction more than wave 1......so if BTCUSd goes below 2000 ..... I would throw all bitcoins away......it means a horrible outcome ahead
Comment: So when it comes to maximum price...say a person holds 90000btc.....why would world accept a person to become overnight billionaire out of thin air without actual product to have been delivered.....we always debate this and end up without conclusion......I always argue that a commodity goes north when it becomes indispensable.......based on simple economics.....while my friend argues that people are not always rational....so people must ask themselves this.......is BTc indispensable?......rationality is easy to discount.......would you like to answer this in comments section......these questions are important for me to predict what lies ahead
Comment: So I see people frequently commenting....that trillion dollars will be coming in soon from institutional investors.....and they are expecting it any time now.....some said it in April after tax season......can you see in my charts what any decent institutional analyst would have seen in advance and why they are aren't coming anytime now.....till we show signs of revival for next leg up
Comment: I don't want to scare you or anything ..... But it's a Frank discussion you should have..... I will explain in charts why you should have it now
Comment: If you open the monthly chart in one my previous comments 11 hours ago.....something serious is happening with RSI....it has reached a historical low......though still in bullish territory......but Elliott wave shows repeatedly that some downside is sill left.. . Now the worrying feature is this......all corrections so far in BTcusd....including mtgox....including whichever crash you saw....happened with RSI still in high bullish territory.....this time we are in a different zone!
Comment: Now see the stochastic RSI in the same chart.. ... stochastic RSIs can stay in high bullish or bearish territory for quite some time......till now all crashes were happening with monthly chart stochastic in high bullish territory.....meaning it was guaranteed that markets would recover......this time we are in something all together different......this is what we are researching
Comment: Now when I see the monthly chart with fresh red candles of bearish momentum...... something within me shudders at the thought......I can tell you one thing.....whoever is telling you that institutional investors are not entering for one reason or the other......is probably delusional.....or maybe even lying.....no sane analyst would advise mega money to be pumped right now.....before we hit bottom......but we know how people and even institutions can sometimes make emotive decisions.......so we are watching how things unfold
Comment: Let me put it another way.....what is happening right now with Bitcoin is something that has never happened before.....people don't realize ....from a pure trading analysis point of view...for the first time stochastic RSI on monthly chart has hit rock bottom....and I don't have any historical perspective to draw lessons from.......this also foretells one thing.......if stochastic RSI does not rise then conventional RSI will rock bottom too.....and that will be the first genuine bear market in history of bitcoin
Comment: If you see the monthly chart...you can see why Bitcoin survived every crash.....look at the RSI and stochastic......the real moment of reckoning has come now.......and we have a fresh wave of bearish momentum to deal with......I don't want to sound depressive........but as an imoartial analyst I must tell you what I see happening
Comment: *Impartial analyst
I dont know how you people will react to what my analysis says ....please feel free to comment below.....it helps to know feedback.....and drives me to pursue this research......deep within I pray Bitcoin survives this....but it was my duty to warn you of possibilities ahead .....2018 is the first genuine test of Bitcoin .....and if you have learnt anything from my post......then please don't make the mistake of looking into history of Bitcoin to predict next moon........honestly......we don't know what lies ahead.......at present we can only flow with the market......or get out of it if we can't afford the potential losses
Comment: So here is what we logically expect based on reasonable techincal analysis.....if BTCUSd reaches 2000 then it would knock on the doors of first genuine recession in it's history!
If it rises genuinely in an impulsive 12345 pattern and stochastic picks up along with RSI on monthly......I would consider BTc USD ready for next wave up on a longer term
Comment: So I would like you to comment below if you have understood the fundamental point that right now its history in making.....this crash is unlike all other crashes in history of Bitcoin because for first time Bitcoin has completed a journey to rock bottom stochastic on monthly chart.....if this stochastic manages to stay south for any significant length of time then it will trigger a genuine recession with RSI headed south......right now no fractal in history of Bitcoin will work because this has never happened before.....but surely Bitcoin will still flow within all limits of technical analysis.....I felt a bit depressed while writing this because I know what all is at stake for people ......I would surely not like 300 billion worth of wealth taken away from hard working people into hands of few whales......I sincerely pray that my nightmarish analysis is proven wrong. .... Don't feel like updating this anymore till some good news starts flowing in......happy trading and profiting
Comment: And yes.....if I was a whale believing the potential value of Bitcoin...then the best time to buy it is about to come!
Comment: I had realised the potential darkeness of what lies ahead only sometime back.......till then I had never analysed the longer term charts......and I believed like everyone else that markets will recover again......like always. ..and all we needed was to travel the way down before going up again......but a simple clear analysis of monthly chart explains all the market moves so far......
Comment: Now the fact is this......no one knows what lies ahead.... absolutely no one......who ever says moon is biased.....whoever says bust is biased......the reality right now is.......BtCusd is right now at a stage of gamble.....so I would leave you with this thought and my perspective
Comment: Even if I invest one billion dollar today price won't move an inch.....because trading volume per day is already 8 billion.....we are all slaves to mass psychology......masses must follow......if everyone believes Bitcoin will moon .....then it will moon.....let's hope for the best
Comment: That's why I said......I need you to comment below....I am from India and don't get to interact with BTCUSd traders......I don't know if it hampers me or gives an advantage by letting me stay neutral......what do you feel seeing what I have to say.......I am showing you hard evidence......not some philosophy.....not some wishful thinking......just plain in your face hard facts......and all very logical ...... Backed by reliable consistent research and solid fundamental indicators
Comment: I don't usually publicise my ideas....but would you like to spread the word around......if you feel that what I have written needs to be fairly considered......this is not some cryptic moving water theory......or some adamant bearish bias......this is clear logical analysis of charts......and it has pinned every move of Bitcoin ......there are hard working family fortunes at stake here.......poor noobs losing money.....at least people deserve to be informed before they make a choice.......let them read and make up their minds.....thank you
Comment: so now that most of my followers believe in long term value of BTCUSD ......despite clearly understanding that something unprecedented is happening this time in bitcoin history (stochastic is heading for the first time in bearish territory, all moving averages are above us)....... there is nothing extraordinary in what the moving water guy claimed all along.......very simple elliott wave analysis leads us the same path while exactly charting out the way........
since i dont have the precedent for BTCUSD.....i am posting charts of two major indian companies which made the same path as bitcoin to help you trade in future.......now we were sure of recovery of these companies as they had strong fundamentals......and the charts show how recovery will pan out.......enjoy bulls this one :)


and you can tell someone......dont plagiarise common elliott wave knowledge as 'moving water theory' ;)
Comment: sorry, in the tech mahindra company chart this should be wave 2.......lolz....i am still making silly mistakes......need to control my market addiction......in need to focus on vacation......vacation :)
so if its bullish then storm gets over in 5700
if its bearish then we go 2000 and down
take care of your families and make an informed choice
and remember......no one can tell for sure this time......its unprecedented......whoever is saying anything for sure is just gambling with 50% chance of success......so with this your impartial analyst signs off :)
Comment: if you believe this idea is informative, helpful and educational....and will help family guys in years to come......spread the word around..... :)
no twitter channel....no fake claims.....no wizardry......just clear impartial simple logical reproducible analysis using the most reliable consistent and proven indicators
Comment: revised market bottom target 4700.....will explain in chart soon
Comment: like i said we dont trade bitcoin and for us its just a hobby as a way to pursue research......today we had an off theme afternoon session where we brainstormed recent price movements in bitcoin.....
so by now it must be clear to everyone that we are in a major correction and the hottest debate is forecasting the bottom with logical explanation....now as professionals we like to use multiple indicators to back our forecast....firstly lets understand few concepts....in elliott wave theory markets move in 12345abc wave which together become 12 of a larger wave........ similarly the next 12345abc pattern becomes 34 of a larger wave......now the issue comes at next 12345abc......here markets must accomodate wave 5 and then subsequent correction of a larger wave.....further markets must somewhere accommodate bear runs too..... now i already mentioned how this bear run is important.....because here for the first time monthly chart is showing activity on the downside...i am redrawing that chart below.....to explain how and why we feel a lower market bottom

now this is why we expect quite a period of market consolidation ......the ease of movement indicator......it has shown a large fluctuation this end of bull cycle and is now expected to quieten for a while prior to next bull run respecting its rhytm
Comment: the reason we now expect a price movement correction in bearish momentum is because bears have temporarily neared exhaustion on weekly chart......so a pseudo bull run expected! and then final leg of RSI down.......
NOW IMPORTANTLY
this is all valid only if bitcoin is to regain bullishness over longer term.....i am not qualified to answer if tomorrow bitcoin goes burst like a bubble....its all market sentiment and i dont have any whiff of it as major financial institutions have no BTCUSD exposure due to govt regulations...so i cant feel market pulse.....this is pure unbiased chart analysis
Comment:
Comment: i will also post a freak theory of my colleague about the scenario where markets abruptly terminate their bear run
Comment:
Comment: So stochastic did not listen to moving water guy's claim of 6900 pump yesterday and followed the conventional pattern......bad girl stochastic.....why doesn't she want to learn new things.....
Thankfully Elliott can't rise from graves .... otherwise he would have sued someone for plagiarism
Comment: lolz.......truly bad girl stochastic......when moving water wanted you to moon you went sea diving.....now when he took his swim suit out.....you went ballistic! ....... :)
see the previous chart for predicted stochastic and market movements
enjoy conventional TA
Comment: is it the final run down to 5k levels!
today's dump could be easily predicted if people understood their mass psychology behavior


conventional targets aligning more and more with 5000!
Elliott analysis could point that much in advance
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-eyes-be...
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: explaining why you should have not shorted when i warned
Comment: so we will see how this plays out from here
Comment: The markets want to play down
Comment: some more interesting longer term analysis for those deciding to brace through the crypto storm


this is the weekly BTCUSD chart i am referring to
Comment: read weekly as monthly
Comment: lolz......if i was a market manipulator......i would cause a small dump and then pump again
or vice versa....to liquidate maximum holdings
fireworks are in offing!
but any dump or pump here will be difficult to control....i mean squeezes can occur
so far a small dump and then pump seems like more likely scenario


Comment: sorry...tax deadline in india .....does this figure self explain whats up immediately
Comment: explaining recent BTC USD moves
conventional analysis can easily reach reliable conclusions
Comment:
Comment: sadly bulls are setting themselves up!
Comment: wow! 6800 was reached and no divergence anywhere and now we are up from 6200 to 7300.......so here is what ..... 5900 to 6800 wave 1......6800 to 6100 wave 2 (sharp).....now 6100 to ongoing wave three......7400 was already hit.....so we will see a flat retracement....wave 4......then wave 5......should be some 500 or so height atleast.....now the only chart to watch is daily.....we recently switched all our trading to heikin ashi candles and these moves were readily apparent there.....by the way weekly chart has moved.....monthly still pending.....so bulls.....its still not over.....enjoy this breather rally......for those who want to exit this market....try spotting a top and get out......


if you see the charts in detail you will see what kind of candles form at price reversal points......also see conventional japanese candlestick patterns at those times
Comment:
Comment: usually markets like forming some pattern like double top or something
if price tests 8500+ again, then again see divergence and just short it
Comment:
just for education
Comment:
Comment: if you see the chart just above you can figure out why moving water gave a call for 8000 plus this pennant cycle
all you need to do is follow the trend line drawn from previous two market tops
Comment:
Comment: so price was trading at 8139 in my last message when i warned you to not short for then.......so many shorts got liquidated as markets swung to 8300 and now at 8200!
Comment: price at 8200......this shows how to expect another take off as per 5 minute chart
but remember this is not a longer term call....you will have to literally check your computer every hour to see where to book profits......you can see bullish divergences on RSI stochastic and MACD histogram ....
the correct entry point is at bottoms of RSI and stochastic....good trading is all about patience and timing your entry ...you can book handsome profits also in side trading markets
Comment: sorry ...not every hour.....but every 5-10 minutes.....mostly day traders would be doing this..... and only professional ones would succeed!
Comment: price now 8207 and picking up.....pennant height is 8222......now see the larger 15 minute frame.....and you can figure out that price wants to break down once more......sometimes pennants dont even complete to perfection.....
this is how some professional traders pick 100 x leverage trades and make money.......but you need immense discipline to trade this way.......and exquisite attention to timing
Comment:
Comment: i am just sharing day trading secrets
its actually very demanding to trade this way
but just want to show you how professional traders work
Comment: what i showed you at smaller time frames .... applies to larger time frames
so one of the key secrets to successful trading is to look at multiple time frames and then placing bets only when you are sure of an outcome.....dont trade all the time!
Comment: so i demonstrated safe practical live trading with 0.66% profit which would become 6.6% with 10x leverage and 66% with high leverage on bitmex ...if you took safe calls
enjoy!
last tip.....i have said multiple times in this long post......whenever you want to spot a genuine reversal of larger trend.....look at daily weekly and monthly charts!
price right now 8231!
Comment:
Comment: now just see what happened at the five minute chart......8230 price right now......
perfect text book case!
oversold stochastic shows what to expect
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: nope....looks like bulls really want to try reach 8300 once more!
would be interesting to see MACD histogram once they reach there on hourly chart!
Comment: So bulls tried 8300 and failed and then longer term chart behaved exactly as expected and we are down!
Comment: update....bullish divergence complete on 1 hr chart......price 7857.....doji heikin ashi candle.......so you know what is next up!
Comment: and lift off!!!!!!
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: another textbook example in making about bull flags
Comment:
Comment: await confirmation before placing a trade...this is a major move in making
Comment: let market make a confirmation on this......
price staying static
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: price is bouncing at every expected point but no follow through is coming!
this usually happens when most players are bots. they trigger automatic buy and sell orders
Comment:
Insightful. Thank you Jitenjaipuria
Reply
Nice input. Thanks.
Reply
Great to see you back; and as usual, right on the money.
Reply
Where are you my friend jitenjaipuria!??? Came back and give us your thoughts...
Reply
What are your thoughts @jitenjaipuria on the current RSI bullish divergence on the 1-day? I know a 6K bottom doesn't fit with the EW analysis you've been sharing, so I'm curious how much weight you give it. It looks a lot like the divergence you pointed out as a market bottom in early April. The Stoch RSI is not so attractive, but it was also trending down in April as the bullish divergence occurred (it turned soon after, obviously). Shorts are also high again – begging for a squeeze?.

I'd be interested to hear how you juggle the competing signals. A clear and simple divergence on the 1-day, at RSI bottom, as opposed to EW analysis. Thanks for any and all thoughts.

Reply
@astinus, great...so you picked up some nice points from my post.....yes...it's there.....this is why we are not plunging straight down......on the four hour it's not there......so basically 1hr will play it's part......then that cycle will complete.....then longer term charts will play their part.... so basically you would have longed at 7050 or maybe even lower and watched the bounce to 7150.....and then decided from there based on charts......right now stochastic has legs to go really down on 4hr chart
Reply
@astinus, so basically if you want to trade here then you will have to watch multiple frame charts....some knowledge of Elliott waves also needed.....also see shorts chart.....if you feel they are due for squeeze then you may well have it.....the markets are primed for a surprise pump anytime......most things are at bottom....where the way is temporarily up
Reply
So you think 2k is the bottom?
Reply
mmanwar mmanwar
@mmanwar, sorry 6k?
Reply
@mmanwar, 6k does not fit anywhere
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Help Center Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing TradingView Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out