Sherem
Long

Ethereum compared to 2014 Bitcoin - A must read

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A lot of people compare the current BTC scenario to 2014 BTC and while I think those situations are similar, I think BTC is under very different circumstances now compared to back in 2014. With the recent volume spike I began to wonder if anyone had compared BTC 2014 to a current ETH chart, and I am glad I did the comparison. This analysis will detail some of the comparison and what could happen, as it relates to BTC 2014, keep that in mind as you read.

Before I go into some details, take a look at how similar they look. Here are the noticeable things that stick out to me:
1. High volume near the bottom of BTC , similar to the volume we got on ETH
2. 81% decline on BTC from the high. 88% decline on ETH!
3. The topping pattern was really similar and the rebound was also eerily close. Different levels, but very close.
4. Time. ETH did this cycle in 322 Days, compared to BTC’s 476 days.

What does it all mean?
If we gauge the BTC 2014 chart, it would mean ETH has bottomed. This is it. Once we break this gold trendline we will go higher. But, in comparing it to BTC , how quickly does that move take place? If we compare it to 2014 BTC , it took 11 months for BTC to go from 200 to roughly 500. Knowing that ETH uses a compressed time scale (as shown in the cart above) and if we follow a similar scale, it would be safe to assume that we will go to 500 in at least 6 months or less. These comparisons are weighing 2014 BTC to the current market conditions. However, things are now very different, we have cross pairs, more crypto, lots of development, etc…

Personally, I tend to think the bottom is in Ethereum and that we will start moving in October, once this Friday has come and gone with CME futures and the new Ethereum upgrade rolls out. In my opinion I think it will take far less time to hit 500. But this is crypto, we know is volatile and does it’s own thing and it could go down more.

The question is. Does Ethereum base out and move as high as Bitcoin has gone? Up to 6k? Do we move sideways? Personally, I have laddered in my buys to hodl on to Ethereum for the next wave up.

Happy Hodling,
-Sherem.
Sep 25
Comment: Please show your support by liking the idea, thanks!
Sep 25
Comment: My last analysis for reference. In regards to the gold trendline, this analysis had it drawn with a little more precision. It broke the red, but the gold had no real barring even though it was piercing it to the upside.

Sep 26
Comment: This is in the comments but just for clarification... personally, I do think this will go to 500 in a month or 2, the 6-month time frame mentioned above is in comparison to BTC 2014
Sep 26
Comment: This idea was published on the dailyhodl as a featured article! Good deal. https://dailyhodl.com/2018/09/26/price-a...
All my posts are not intended as financial advice, just me sharing what i am doing with my research and positions. Don't stress, pick your points and don't use leverage.
Nice Job, and thanks for sharing
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Nice work! I had an ah-ha moment on this exact same idea over last weekend and had done my own private charts on it, thank you for sharing. That long downtread (your orange bubble) is what got my attention. I agree we are right around the bottom, and i agree that this time is different and things will move much faster to rebound this time, possibly within the next couple months. I'm interested with taxes if people will try to keep the price down so they can write off losses and boom after the first of the year or if there will be a move up before then (Bakkt in Nov., project development releases, etc).

What makes you think six months from 200-500 and not one or two? We one month blasted in Nov '17, Dec '17, and April '18.
Reply
Sherem freeofthoughts
@freeofthoughts, I do think it will only take 1 or 2 months, that 6 month time frame was just keeping it in strict comparison to what it would do in comparison to BTC 2014
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Thanks Sherem, great analysis, highly interesting.
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Well this entirely depends on the performance of BTC, if ETH truly has seen the bottom. If BTC goes sub 6k, you can be assured that ETH will follow and make new lows. Your analysis entirely depends on BTC going sideways and starting a new bullrun from here on. Not impossible of course, but let's see. I am more inclined to believe that BTC will make new lows and therefore take ETH down with it.
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mxpwladimir FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Exactly, everybody today believes BTC will go sub 6k, based on bearishness of price for last past months. Do you really think market-makers will prepare you like this for going to 4-5k? Or will they do the opposite of what everybody thinks? ;)
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@mxpwladimir, Well the question is what everyone really thinks, since I see a lot of bullish charts here on tradingview. Bullish sentiment ist still very strong, so I am not even sure that everyone expects sub 6k. Let's see. I have plans for both scenarios of course :)
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mxpwladimir FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, I don't know how charts here look like, I don't scroll through many authors, since majority is lost and totally suck, except for @Sherem and some few :)
I think the perma-bulls must already be broke after all these shakeouts, so they don't really matter. And many whales are usually bears, since shorting is better business than longing for last past months :) Many became permabears, so it's their turn to be robbed of their money, when they'll short big resistances and MM shoots up anyway.
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@mxpwladimir, Makes sense, let's see how it will unfold :)
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