DrDovetail

After such a big bull surge a retracement is due and normal

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
According to this eve trendline (which has shown me so far on the 1 day chart it is very much a valid trendline ), if we were to retrace right now we could reach as low as 6900 a retrace is likely inevitable at some point but the more time that goes by the less we will drop once the retrace occurs...we could also consolidate sideways for the next seven days and then continue to go up on 4/20 and still stay well on target with the eve bottom of being able to break the adam and eve neckline by may 7th. It is wiser now that we have closed so many candles above the 50ma (buy/sell line) on the 4hr to buy the dips rather than shorting a large portion of your position in an attempt to catch the dip. However we need to keep in mind we have yet to close above the 50ma on the 1 day chart so on the 1 day chart we are still in a sellers market...however on the 4hr chart we are in a buyers market...4hr chart seems to be the main tempo and pulse of the crypto market, but it isn't until once we get above the 50ma on the 1 day chart that the bulls have full control. I expect a retracement to happen soon but not to dip underneath the pink eve trendline . If you can buy in right around the pink curving trendline that ias an ideal situation...you want to of course make sure it bounces upward off the trendline first however to ensure its keeping the trendline as support which I'm confident it will. One thing we are gonna wanna watch for on the retracement is a higher low which i'm confident we will get...and then a confirmation higher high once we switch back to the uptrend which I'm also pretty confident we will get....the bullish breakout projection for the large descending wedge we broke out of is around $9400...we may get a retracement before hitting that target though...best of luck out there...this is all just information for my own personal trade journal and not meant to be recommended as financial advice.
Comment: we could already be forming our higher low right now...but make sure to pay ttention to where your t line and 50ma are on the 30min, 1hr, 2hr,3hr,4hr,and 1day charts are we need at least one of those t lines to maintain support and if we are under any t lines on certain timeframes we need the 50mas on those timeframes to remain support.
Comment: The 200ma on the 4 hour chart has provided the ultimate support for now to potentially establish a higher low. I put my fractional short stop losses just below this point and thusfar none have triggered. If the 200MA continues to provide support I may buy in a small amount more at this point. Need to be sure it's establishing a higher low here and not just consolidating first.
Comment: this could also essentially still be consolidation from the previous bull flag candle in which case we may not be able to consider this even a higher low...will need to see more price action to be sure.
Comment: so far it's still acting as consolidatiomn...the 200ma on the 4hr acted as support and the price action is still creatig inside bars...so this is not a higher low in my eye...from here we could consolidate sideways until the eve trendline catches up to the price action around the 19th or we could finally see a retracement that brings us a new higher low....or we could continue upward to the 86-9400 area now that this sideways movement has allowed time for overbought indicators to cool off. the current resistance is the 100% fib line and the support is the 200mA
Comment: if we do havve a retracement I don't expect it to be a big one. Just enough to form a new higher low.
Really like this take on the price action. Please continue to update as events present themselves. :)

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DrDovetail Ramesees
@Ramesees, thanks!
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