Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has found itself having trouble moving up. Watching the order books, price action, and volume it appears that price is being contained. With CBOE Bitcoin futures expiring tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a sudden move up within the next 24 hours. But we don't trade on guesses or opinion, only on the chart. So, for now, I remain disinterested in trading any movement within the black TR that price has been in since September. As an aside, Binance is scheduled to upgrade its platform at 2 a.m. UTC and it's expected to take approximately 8 hours.
As mentioned yesterday, failure of price to push through the top of the descending channel/flag made the potential targets based on that pattern obsolete. I also mentioned that if price fell, rather than rose, I would be watching for $6270 and $6200 to provide support. Price hit a low of $6244.35 (at the 15 minute S2 pivot) before bouncing on the 4H chart. The 4H MACD histogram appears most likely to print bullish divergence between 6 a.m. CST on November 11th and 2:00 a.m. CST this morning, as long as this current candle closes near $6300 or above. I have modified the blue descending wedge to compensate for the price action since yesterday's post and it suggests upward momentum. With the 4H bullish divergence on tap as well, this seems more likely than not. Based on the widest area of the descending wedge, we should expect price to target the light blue box (generally around $6533) upon a breach and close above the wedge's resistance. As shown, that would bring price above the red resistance line and near the top of the black TR.
The 15 minute chart gives us a closer look at the current price action. We can see that $6310 is providing resistance and that the S1 pivot around $6281 is providing most of the support. Drops below that pivot are being absorbed as demonstrated by the long lower wicks. RSI is neutral, bouncing between 45 and 60, and MACD has been trending upward. The MACD is printing bullish divergence on this small TF, so we should likely expect price to target the $6310 area at the least. OBV continues to rise with price. The 4H chart is showing more of the same -- long lower wicks suggesting absorption. RSI is sitting on oversold which means it has a lot of room to run as price is nearing completion of the descending wedge. Trader should be watching for bullish divergence on this TF as well.
Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
As mentioned yesterday, failure of price to push through the top of the descending channel/flag made the potential targets based on that pattern obsolete. I also mentioned that if price fell, rather than rose, I would be watching for $6270 and $6200 to provide support. Price hit a low of $6244.35 (at the 15 minute S2 pivot) before bouncing on the 4H chart. The 4H MACD histogram appears most likely to print bullish divergence between 6 a.m. CST on November 11th and 2:00 a.m. CST this morning, as long as this current candle closes near $6300 or above. I have modified the blue descending wedge to compensate for the price action since yesterday's post and it suggests upward momentum. With the 4H bullish divergence on tap as well, this seems more likely than not. Based on the widest area of the descending wedge, we should expect price to target the light blue box (generally around $6533) upon a breach and close above the wedge's resistance. As shown, that would bring price above the red resistance line and near the top of the black TR.
The 15 minute chart gives us a closer look at the current price action. We can see that $6310 is providing resistance and that the S1 pivot around $6281 is providing most of the support. Drops below that pivot are being absorbed as demonstrated by the long lower wicks. RSI is neutral, bouncing between 45 and 60, and MACD has been trending upward. The MACD is printing bullish divergence on this small TF, so we should likely expect price to target the $6310 area at the least. OBV continues to rise with price. The 4H chart is showing more of the same -- long lower wicks suggesting absorption. RSI is sitting on oversold which means it has a lot of room to run as price is nearing completion of the descending wedge. Trader should be watching for bullish divergence on this TF as well.
Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.