amir.shahrivar.054

BTCUSD - Still going down but Possible Reversal in sight

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello dear fellow analysts.

I tried to make a self explanatory chart but i'll highlight few important things:

1) well, obviously we are in a huge down-trending channel (Red).
2) we are waving inside this channel and we already completed wave 1, 2 and 3.
3) by the formation of these waves we can assume we have a Wolfe Wave pattern emerging. which is a very good sign of a Trend Reversal.
4) wave 2 and 4 are always correction waves and move against the main parent channel. so we have two small channels (Green) which contain the correction waves. the reversal won't happen until 5th wave emerges completely.
5) Wave-trend Oscillator indicates a crossover might happen. this will make me more confident about the completion of wave 4.
6) i will wait until wave 4 is done, then MAYBE I open a short position. but if wave 5 emerges and hit the target i will DEFINITELY open a long position.

but for now, let's see what happens.

Thank You.
Comment:
Comment: Hello again.
I decided to update this with a slightly different idea which @mhfcrypto mentioned in the comments. Indeed this is more probable than my original idea. So if this turns out to be right all credit is his.
By the way, I think this worths mentioning.

So forget about the Wolfe wave and look at this as a bearish 12345 Elliot wave. Like @mhfcrypto mentioned it looks like we are having our 3rd wave on the runway and it’s huge.
What is interesting to me is the Fibonacci Retracement levels and the Fibonacci Timezones are confirming this wave almost perfectly.

I think it’s now obvious enough that we must continue our downward movement.
-I mean just look at the Divergence in Price and Volume, you can see it easily in the OBV compared to price, it means low buying pressure.
-Parabolic SAR is way up in the sky and we have 20 day EMA as resistance and of course even moving passively in this channel means going down.

I don’t know about the final bottom price target, I think it all depends at the 3K Support level and how it can handle the bears.

Thank you.
Comment:
Nice.. supports on a much shorter timescale a possible turning point in the 2900 area which i was considering today on the 1D

+1 Reply
@spruce_g00se, Agreed. thank you for sharing my friend.
Reply
amir.shahrivar.054 a.shevelev002
@a.shevelev002, thank you for sharing this my friend.
Reply
This is really well-done and thorough TA with nice commentary. Many thanks for sharing :-)

IMH0, I think we're still in a long, deep Wave 3 which began around Dec 1st will end around Dec 20th at circa $2600. I could be wrong tho!
+1 Reply
@mhfcrypto, Hello and thank you for your nice comment my friend. it made my night honestly. :) i gave it a thought and i think you are on point here. and if you're on point, i missed the big picture, again. :) the reason i posted this idea was i couldn't dismiss the exact 0.618 retracements. i mean it shouldn't be a coincidence. i think i spotted "some" of the waves or sub-waves correctly but i'm not sure about the whole picture. i think it all depends on my wave 4. but i really hope you are wrong. because if you are right, your 5th wave will get us to 18xx probably and that's not gonna be pretty. :D thank you for your time.
Reply
mhfcrypto amir.shahrivar.054
@amir.shahrivar.054, I'm not saying I'm correct...but I just don't feel we've seen the real Panic Selling yet. We need one more big 'twist of the knife' with some big Sell Volume.

My Price Target is around $2300, however, we will probably perform to the downside, touching around $1800.

Let's see what happens :-)
+1 Reply
@mhfcrypto, actually both of us are right. but the waves in your scenario covers more ground and extends longer in time. even if the reversal i mentioned happens, it'll be short term (your wave 4). both RSI and WT have a long way to go in weekly to give us enough momentum to rise. your argument about the twist of the knife seems irrefutable at the moment.
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