Bitcoin: Not a bad hedge.

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The Price of Bitcoin has continued to waft to the upside, elegantly respecting support and resistance at key moving averages and volume nodes.

A fundamental lack of sellers after capitulation has led short speculators to be squeezed as they either try to find liquidity to take profit or simply speculating short against real buy interest and continued profit taking.

Its unclear how much demand will be affected by systematic shocks across the world in the financial markets. Clearly risk is to the downside in equities, however Central Bank printing/stimulus is stirring a demand reallocation towards hard assets.

In TA terms:

Bull Case:
Liquidity Magnet around and above $8k
Support/Resistance smash after capitulation; evident in VPVR
Gap in interest 7500-7800
Little selling interest for Bitcoin ; HL HH / Buyers in control
Volume remains above average
Above Multiple Key Weekly Moving averages

Bear Case:
High correlation to equity markets / systematic risk
Declining Volume
Approaching Resistance
Dead Cat
Rising Wedge

If you forced me to be with the halving coming id think we dabble around $8k retest $7 and then break it and pump.
Worst case we struggle along with everyone else in the market. I think as a % Bitcoin might outperform the equities, so there might be opportunities there.

Long Bitcoin short the Banks has never seemed a more attractive hedge exposure to me.. not advice.


Comment: Something like this perhaps.

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Ironically, for the time being btc is highly correlated with the S&P500 and other stock market indexes. Theoretically this shouldn't be the case at all, but come to think about it, btc is still a brand new "asset" (11 years is nothing in my opinion) and if you factor in the coming halving & the tail event of the corona-virus pandemic, it's pretty impossible to make any meaningful prediction whatsoever. As is usually the case (and especially now) 99% of daily traders will simply lose their capital or just "recycle" it at best. In my opinion, the most prudent thing an individual can do right now is just be patient and buy any dip, provided they still believe in the fundamentals of bitcoin. I bought heavily on March 12 and I believe that when the average Joe realizes that they cannot find "gold 1.0" (physical delivery, not non-existent "paper gold") they will come to the conclusion that "gold 2.0" is the obvious choice. This will be the case especially in the younger demographics (Millenials & Gen. Z) and will be one of the prime reasons bitcoin will skyrocket in the coming months.
+15 Reply
xberg GuruMeditation
@GuruMeditation, Fantastic. You've put in words my thoughts as of late. Well done.
+2 Reply
@xberg, Thank you. Stay safe.
Anyone Shorting $BTC running up into the Halving is suicidal. Long all teh way!
+4 Reply
Very nice TA, time will tell who is right.
+3 Reply
Thank you so much, always appreciate your insight! Much love from across the pond!
+2 Reply
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