(Clickbait)Whats the possibility of BTC hitting an ATH? Read all

I want to start by looking at this log scale chart of BTC going back to 2013. The green identifies each year around this time and we can see what happens in August.

Every year in August we have gotten a bull run shortly thereafter except in 2014. I want to analyze the dynamics of what happened in 2013 vs what is happening now. Clearly the similarities between 2013 and now are very close. If we look at those 2 sections of time we can see that we had a run up in price from August, followed by a sell off. In 2013, price peaked around $1,200 and then came down to roughly 550 for a 54% decline and then headed down to roughly $250 and finding a base. For roughly a 80% decline from the ATH. Versus currently we have had a peak of about 20k and have gone down to roughly 5.6k, for a decline of 72%. If we look at it from this perspective, it could be argued that BTC is well ahead of it's cycle in regards to correcting to the downside. To be more specific, while it took 1 year and 2 months to decline 80%, it has only taken half the time to decline 72%, or roughly 7 months from the 20k ATH to the 5.7k low. What this could indicate is that the cycle is shortening in preparation for another bull run.

RSI: Has created a longer term upward trendline and if you look at the amount of bars compared to 2013 you will notice that it's almost run it's course. Similar to what I mentioned before about the decline being shortened.

MACD: The negative MACD is done at this point, which is bullish. However, what is bearish is that we are still negative and there was little to no cross.

The crosses: LTC/BTC and ETH/BTC. While certainly there isn't a direct correlation to BTCUSD, we can certainly gauge how money flows from one crypto to another. While BTCUSD has gone down while LTC/BTC and ETH/BTC have gone down. There has only been one general direction BTCUSD when these go up, and that's up with them. (check out ETH/BTC this last year, with it’s run in early 08 and in april, while it did run in 2017, everything was going up then) We know thats how the major players move things, by moving in and out from one crypto to another. They need to do this to create markets and offer liquidity. Both of these charts offer glimpses as to what could be. A move to the upside.

Good news: There has been massive amounts of good news lately. Everything from Starbucks and microsoft teaming up. To lawyers verifying tether. You name it. there is a lot of good news coming out.

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Before assuming that another bull run is right around the corner, lets take a look at the leveraged short and long positions on Bitfinex. Sherem, Why is this chart important? BTC longs and shorts look about the same! I feel that exact aspect is what's important. If you remember my post earlier about cartel manipulation, etc... You will remember that I pointed out that a lot of major players make a lot of money off of crypto. You would think that BTC short and longs would be more volatile and during these peaks I have outlined. That there would be more of a dramatic move in one direction or another. But positions have just increased since the ATH, shorts and longs alike. Which is interesting....Having a lot of open positions in both longs and short indicates that we are going to have push and pull in both directions. What the market makers have done is do it fluidly, over time by and decreased the volatility. With the amount of shorts and longs open it tells us that if price gets to low, shorts will cover. conversely, if price gets to high, longs will take profit. This leads me to believe that we are going to form a channel. Does that channel have a bottom at 5.7k? 5k? and a top at 10k? or top at 20k? It's really hard to say where exactly.

Conclusion, I think it's safe to say that any extreme low position lower than 3k can be ruled out at this point. (unless we get some sort of news event) Alternatively, for the time, I think anything above 20k can be ruled out as a viable number for the coming months. For the exact same reason that people will cover their positions if it moves down they will take profit as it moves up.

Personally, I think we'll end up in a channel. A big one. I just don't know how exactly it will look. But if you are an institution looking at these prices, you better believe they are willing to throw some money at it to risk 50% for potentially a 200% gain, maybe more? hmmm. Cause they can wait a year for price increase if they have to. Or maybe they need it for the starbucks app, a new alt that is coming out?

Happy Trading or hodling.

-Sherem

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Like, subscribe, comment, share your thoughts. All that good stuff

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previous analysis for reference:

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You know, I don't understand why the market reacts this way to just delaying the approval of an etf. Really makes little sense. I mean the winklevoss's have had their ETF delayed and denied for a year if not more, and then all of the sudden CBOE's etf JUST gets delayed and the market tanks? pffft.

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While the news did drive this down for no real reason, if we look at the daily RSI, we can see it's proved itself many times in the past. most recently in June, we hit an oversold area twice. If we start leveling off down here and forming a similar pattern, it will start forming a double bottom. Something to be mindful of.

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I want to reference my earlier idea where we were looking at a bull or bear scenario. Under the Bear scenario, it has BTC going down to the 5.2-5.5k area. We want to look to where it will start basing out. If it bases out here, around 6.2k, that will be more bullish than if we hit 5.2k. I think we will get a bounce either way. Be patient and know the RSI is just now getting into oversold territory and it will take time to base out

Idea where we looked at it potentially going to the 5.25k area

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Every time we hit peaks in short positions we seem to get a move to the upside shortly thereafter. You can see in these 3 examples a good idea of what to expect.
1. In Feb. Short exposure peaked, BTC moved down another 2k, we rebounded hard.
2.In april, shorts peaked. Short squeeze right after.
3. In June, we peaked, took a couple weeks for the move up.
How this move plays out remains to be seen, but shorts have a lot of exposure right now. And check out that RSI... so oversold

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trade set up in our overarching plan here:

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Just as an FYI here. The buzz for the recent drop over the last week or so was the VanEck ETF not getting approved. The reason this is a big deal is because this particular fund invests in BTC itself, not futures. A decline like we are seeing would be very beneficial for a large ETF fund that needs cheap BTC to scoop up and put a price floor in. Is this fund scooping up prices now? or will it fall more and then they will scoop it up? The point is, a company doesn't just file with the SEC for the sake of filing and paying lawyers a ton of money without scooping up the assets they need. they need those assets and they will continue to file until they get it approved.

Here's the other thing NO ONE is talking about. ProShares has an ETF approval deadline of August 23rd (from my understanding). Proshares already runs a lot of ETF's and has a lot of experience getting these things done. it's also based on futures. A product regulated by CBOE and CME which already has the SEC's blessing. Why wouldn't something get approved eventually if it's already been approved by the SEC for futures trading? Hmmm...

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Oh, did I read the filing? Why yes, yes I did. - www.sec.gov/Archives...96263/d464351ds1.htm

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If we crack 6.5k, I am going to order a short squeeze with a side of bear tears. Shorts are at all time highs since April. remember what happened in April? We went from 6k to 10k. 10k is on the table again IF we start moving up.

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Quick update -