CredibleCrypto
Short

BTC DIP INCOMING!!! Headed to SUB 11K before next push UP!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here we have a clear rising wedge on the 4 hourly, and at time of writing we have just forced ourselves back into it after breaking down a bit earlier. HOWEVER, assuming this is a leading diagonal in terms of EW, and we are on the fifth and final subwave up of a larger Wave 1 impulse move, we should see a nice dip any moment now. Please note though, we may go as high as 11.7-11.8k before the dip begins.

Furthermore, we can see we have broken down from a rising wedge in RSI on the 4 hourly, and we have even backtested the breakdown and failed to recover, showing we are headed lower. If this is a leading diagonal Wave 1, then Wave 2 should follow, and green targets have been marked with horizontal lines to show possible ends to this dip. They are based on the 38%, 50% and 61.8% fib retracements of this last bullish wave up (assuming we hit 11.7k before the actual dip begins). Targets will be updated once the dip begins!

After this dip, the longer term trend is still up and we should see 12-13k shortly after. Wave 3 will follow this dip, and it is known to be the longest and strongest, so the best is yet to come for this run!

***THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, SOLELY MY OPINION. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES***
Comment: Lets take a look at the sub-wave structure of this last push up. In the chart posted below I have marked the subwaves of this last push up in blue. At time of writing we are seeing a price spike which may be the beginning of the 5th subwave (in blue), after a period of sideways movement/consolidation that would be considered the 4th subwave of this structure. Note that the dip we are expecting will come right after this final 5th subwave is complete, and we may see as high as 11.9k before this happens.

I have also adjusted the bottom trend line that makes up the bottom of the wedge to account for the Wave 4 dip to $11,480 levels (what I previously called a breakdown). Since we recovered from this, I expanded the width of the wedge to take this dip into consideration as we must consider all possibilities for the wedge bottom. This expanded wedge also gives us a bit more time for this 5th subwave up to complete before we breakdown for the dip.

The OLD bottom trend line for the wedge is now the green DOTTED line in the chart below and the new one is now the green SOLID line. This way you can see the difference between the two and see the new boundaries of this wedge clearly.

Comment: And HERE WE GO!!!

It looks like we got a failed fifth wave (ended lower than previous wave 3) and the dip has begun a bit earlier than expected. Targets have been adjusted since we now know where the final impulse up ended, and I have added a more conservative target that is around $11,100. This target is the 23% retrace and although it is very rare for Wave 2 to only retrace 23% we must consider all the possibilities. Odds are in favor of us hitting the 10.5k and 10.3k targets but I have laid out all the possibilities on the table for your reference.

Comment: Our second target has been reached! We hit right about 10.8k and bounced from there. Note this first leg down was a 5 wave structure, which means we are still headed lower! Assuming we are seeing a simple ABC correction, having just completed Wave A down we should now see a small push up (Wave B) to about 11.1k-11.3k levels before we head for our next leg down (Wave C). Based off of the information I have right now I would say 10.5k is a likely target for Wave C (our third green target), but we will get more information and be able to make better targets once this Wave B ends.

Comment: What a drop! I am waiting this out to analyze where we are with the EW count as this drop was a lot stronger and faster than I had anticipated it would be. NOTE if we lose $9300 the wave count is invalidated! An alternate wave count will be posted as a new idea if that occurs and preliminary targets are $8700 and $8100 for this alternate scenario.
Trade closed manually: The count has been invalidated, we have lost $9300!
Comment: Those of you following, I am now calling for a reversal in the $8200-$8300 range based on my alternate wave count. This should happen within the hour. If this plays out I will post a new idea with the wave count.
Comment: NEW IDEA POSTED, reversal seems highly unlikely now. We got a bounce, at 8300 but that seems to be all it was! Headed lower imo!

excellent. How does the new wave count play out ? we are back at 9300. Is it new trend or continuation ?
Reply
@mansiinator, Check out my new idea here:

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