COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hey guys, in my last idea I posted that I would post a new idea with an alternate wave count since the last idea was invalided due to price action. Here is the new idea. There are quite a few other reasons besides the wave count that make me very confident in this idea, but this idea will mainly focus on the wave count. I may post updates highlighting some of the other reasons I believe we see a sharp drop if I get the time.

As always, this idea is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. NEVER trade solely based on someone else's opinion. Use these ideas to validate your own!

On the chart here we can see a 5 wave impulse followed by a sharp drop which I believe to be a Wave 2 retracement of our first impulse up. Note this wave count assumes the correction from 20k ENDED at the 6k lows we reached and that this is the start of a fresh bull cycle with 5 large impulse waves (that will take us to new ATH's). Currently, I believe we are at the peak of our B wave in this simple ABC correction. Note that the pink trendline is coming from our ATH and second highest peak, so it is a very strong resistance level that we are testing at the moment. The first red horizontal line is our conservative target which would give our Wave C (of the ABC down) a length equal to 61.8% of Wave A. The second target gives our Wave C a length equivalent to 100% of Wave A. NOTE the third target IS NOT POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE COUNT, but I have placed it there because if we do go below the last low of around 6k, it means the correction from 20k has not ended and the 3k level target comes into play.

As always, feel free to ask questions in the comments and give this idea a LIKE if you think it was useful!
Comment: Patience guys, expecting the downturn to start by 9.6k, or 10k ABSOLUTE MAX.
Comment: The drop has begun and the first two targets have been adjusted slightly based on the ending of Wave B.

Comment: Hey guys, here is an image depicting a bear flag that has formed and is now breaking down. I have shown how to calculate the measured move and we can see that the measured move takes us to my second target as well.

Comment: Don't worry guys, still bearish, and idea is still in play. Will update shortly with my reasoning.
Comment: Crossing above 9715 again though will be an early warning sign and I will reconsider my position at that point.
Comment: Here is the update guys, The following are three reasons why I am still expecting a major dip to play out. The chart says its all, but simply put:

1. Volume is lacking for a reversal
2. 4 Hour RSI is showing a bearish rising wedge pattern
3. Wave B of my Wave count was not a ZigZag as I initially thought but is instead a regular "FLAT" corrective pattern. This keeps the wave count intact.

Also, targets have been adjusted slightly to account for the new end to Wave B.

Comment: Gonna go out on a limb here because I am super confident at the moment, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP WITHIN AN HOUR. And it will be very noticeable :)
Comment: Anddd thats why you don't go out on a limb :p I am still bearish, now calling for the drop to occur between 10.3-10.4k. Bullish until that point, TA to justify this will be posted in the morning.
Comment: UPDATE:

Detailed explanation coming in the morning!

And it looks like my initial idea of a drop was accurate, it just happened a couple of hours after I had expected it to. Updated targets will be posted shortly, but ultimately I believe we are headed to 6k levels or lower, as stated in the title of this idea.
Trade closed manually
does 6k get invalidated if btc breaks above the downtrend line at 8500 ?
is there another bigger downtrend line ?
@mansiinator, No, 6k will remain in play. The only time I would think it is safe to say we are seeing an official reversal is if we get back over 11.8k. Until then I am treating all push ups as bounces. I haven't updated my idea in a while since I have been busy with work, but just to give you an idea of what I am expecting to see here in the short term:

1. Current push up should end before $8900.
2. We should then be headed to $7200-$7600 where we should see a strong bounce.
3. If a reversal is not confirmed at this point we should then be headed back down to test the 6k levels.
4. At this point, if we lose 6k, we may correct to 3k-5k levels. If 6k holds, it will be the end of the correction, and up we go.

I know it is hard to imagine this scenario playing out without me demonstrating on the charts, so I will try and see if I can get the time to draw up something quick so you can see visually how this may play out.
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