IvanLabrie

BTCUSD: Relief rally setting up

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I suspect we are seeing a broad market relief rally in risk assets, including crypto. I bot my max allocation in $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD today, before US equities closed, with an 80/20% allocation to each respectively. I'm allocating 25% of my capital into it, whenever I want full exposure in crypto assets.

Daily technical charts show a trend signal kicked off here, this signal formed in the $BITO chart today, and was present 2 days ago in spot charts. CME was slower to confirm and is now onboard together with the latest spot signal I'm showing you in this chart.

Weekly charts can easily confirm an advance for 5 weeks here, interestingly this would take Bitcoin close to the current mid term down trend resistance at the 25% speed line (measure 25% of the speed of the decline from top to bottom, and project it as a trendline, you can try this with the Fib Speed Resistance Fan tool here on Tradingview, really useful way to gauge trends' persistence on pullbacks after a sizeable move in one direction).

The long term trend I had predicted back in July/August 2020 will expire by the end of April this year, so it is fitting to get a rally into the end of the trend, time wise...I don't yet know how far this will go, but the same timing is found in various stock market trend signals in long term charts, and almost all risk assets exhibit the same behavior: a massive top since late 2021, and now a potential relief rally setting up. It's unclear if it's a retracement in a down trend, or a reversal of the decline leading to new highs, but I think it's more probable that it is merely a relief rally indeed, and all risk assets likely head lower over time, likely acting similarly to the 2000/2013 period or the move after the late 60s into the early 80s. We will know more over time.

Where will Bitcoin go in this potential new paradigm scenario? It's yet to experience a long term bear market in risk assets, since it was born after the bottom in 2009, following the top of the long term bull market that started in 1982, and culminated in the year 2000. We now are seeing the end of the trend that kicked off from 2009 lows, and peaked in late 2021 probably.
My guess is Bitcoin either decouples from risk assets and performs like Gold and Silver , or other commodities , which outperform during bear markets historically, or it moves like growth stocks, as it has been moving.

Next move here is telegraphed: we go higher, as long as not breaching the 37200 mark give or take, within the next 16 days to 5 weeks. What comes after that is not yet clear, but it could be that it is rejected from the 25% speed resistance line. Let's stay vigilant and nimble. The Federal Reserve can exacerbate volatility this week, so I'll keep an eye on that as well...Crossing fingers gentlemen.

Best of luck!

Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
Trade closed manually:
I've closed my longs 2 days ago, I woke up to some strange overnight activity but decided not to act on it as reward to risk was not favorable and it seemed like illiquid hours allowed an entity to move prices around while the market was thin.

I re did the chart analysis as I noticed I had overlooked a few details and noticed the weekly timeframe needs to confirm a trend to be really meaningful. Daily is in a state of 'chop', forming triangle consolidations and overlapping ranges, not a great trading environment.
Comment: (sidenote: no idea how that coinmarketcap text crept in my chart above haha)
Comment: CME chart is clean overall. Could go higher but until the weekly triggers a signal I'm not too keen taking further risks here.

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