AlanSantana

Bitcoin Short-Term | Rejections & Bear Candlestick Patterns

Short
AlanSantana Updated   
INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
First we will look at candlestick reading, then price action and then we are going to interpret this information.

How are you feeling today?
Tomorrow is the full moon and things tend to unravel when the moon is full; a culmination point.

We are going to be looking at Bitcoin on the 4H timeframe and we will ignore everything else.
This is a close view (short-term).

➖ Rejections: We have mainly three rejections based on candlestick reading. The candle was good and green but ends up red, with a long upper wick and high bear volume. 15-Feb., 20-Feb. and 22-Feb. On the 22nd of February BTCUSD 4H tried to move and close above EMA10 and EMA21 but there was a strong rejection. The session ended closing below these levels. High volume compared to the rest of the days. (Higher than average volume always showing up on red days.)

This is all bearish of course.
➖ BTCUSD 4H is now trading below EMA50 with one final small rejection on the previous session.

➖ Support weakens: The more a support level is challenged, the weaker it becomes. We can see three attempts at support. We can say it is becoming weaker.

➖ Notice while the top is rounded, the bottom is flat.

➖ This is all happening with a weak RSI or bearish (reading below 50).

➖ My interpretation is as follows: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 4H TF is going sideways, a sort of consolidation (or distribution?) phase with a clear bearish bent/bias.

This type of action can result in a price drop once the above-mentioned support level breaks.


Thank you for reading.

Namaste.
Comment:
Support is broken on the 1H timeframe...
Comment:
Boost this idea —to receive notifications— if you want real-time short-term updates.

I will track BTCUSD for you on the 1H and 4H timeframes.

Each time there is a relevant development that might affect Bitcoin's price I will update.

For example: Breaking above resistance, breaking below support. Challenging resistance or support, high volume, surprise moves, etc.

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Any specific questions can also be answered through the comments.

Just ask anything you would like to know about Bitcoin on any timeframe and I'll do my best to support you.

Thank you for always being there for me; for us.

You are truly appreciated.
I feel blessed and grateful to be part of this community.

TradingView has been great since day one.
You guys have been awesome.

Happy full moon!

Namaste.
Comment:

Our first question in the comments goes like this, "What happens if I am wrong and Bitcoin keeps on rising?"
I am paraphrasing.

Great question.

This wouldn't be an out of this world event just low probability.
Low probability to hit a new All-Time High in this wave, Bitcoin rising higher is fully possible.

For Bitcoin to first move higher, it needs to break strongly 53,000 which worked as strong resistance.
Right after 53,000 there is strong resistance again right away at 54,000.

A rise above resistance would meet the next barrier which is 59,750, basically 60,000 ($60K).
This 60K resistance matches a golden ratio fib. extension level and the April 2021 ATH based on candle close. This makes it a very strong resistance level.

Then we have 65,000 and the All-Time High in November 2021.
Both 65K and 69K are based on candle close and wick from Nov. 2021.

The Bitcoin Spot ETF launched a little more than a month and a half ago.
First, a major drop as soon as the spot ETF started trading.
Then, with sustained buying for more than a month and a half, tens of billions of dollars, Bitcoin didn't hit a new All-Time High. Now the news is no longer the ETFs and we are not hearing anything about infinite buying anymore.

What happened?
If the richest people in the world, the biggest money managers in the world, literally, couldn't push Bitcoin to a new All-Time High with 45 days of sustained buying, who is going to do it?

My question goes in reverse, instead of who is going to sell I ask, "Who is going to buy?"

With 19,650,000 BTC in circulation, more than 95% of all wallets in profits, it is safe to assume that the amount of potential sellers is overwhelming.

So, not to say Bitcoin is going down or going up...

Safe buy near November 2022 after an entire year of straight down.
Safe sell near February 2024 after more than an entire year of straight up.

It is not a question of right or wrong, it is an issue of sell high and buy low.

Namaste.
Comment:
4H update: After challenging the lower support, a bounce is now happening.

4H Bitcoin moved above EMA50/21 with a bullish RSI.

Immediately the next resistance to become relevant is the 22-Feb wick high (52,054.41).
If this resistance is challenged, the pattern initially shown in this trade idea starts to breakdown (the bearish potential weakens and the bulls start to gain the upper-hand).

If Bitcoin reverses before reaching this resistance, it would constitute a new lower high and favor the bears.

Namaste.
Comment:
The action remains within a lower high.
Multiple 1H sessions and 2 4H sessions closed below the 22-Feb. wick high. No rejection yet but the whole action so far remains bearish.
Comment:
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Thanks a lot for your continued support.

I hope you find this information useful.

You are truly appreciated.

Namaste.
Comment:
Let's do another update.

The short-term situation stays the same, that is, as long as Bitcoin stays within the lower highs the bearish potential short-term is dominant. This bearish potential can weaken substantially if Bitcoin breaks and closes above 52,000 in the timeframes we are tracking.

This is a repeat of previous updates.
Now, let's consider the bigger picture.

Bitcoin is in a bullish wave, within a bullish move with bearish potential.

Why bearish potential if it is bullish?

Because the market alternates between bearish and bullish all of the time. It is the most common and inevitable market dynamic.

Bitcoin has been growing for more than 444 days which by Bitcoin standards, by any Cryptocurrency standard; it is a long-time.

The move is extended in a several ways.

Bitcoin is moving within this bullish phase, in this bullish move and bearish potential is active, why?

Because the uptrend stalled.
It is literally going sideways at/near resistance. If the last high breaks it can keep on going up.
If the previous high, ~53K remains in place, bearish potential is active.

Looking at the weekly timeframe Bitcoin is likely to give us a red week after four weeks green. This is invariably a bearish signal.

Looking at the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin is closing green six months straight. This is over-extended in Bitcoin standards. Closing green would put massive pressure on the bulls. Closing red would signal the start of a retrace which can develop into a correction.

Bitcoin weekly, if closes red, activates potential for a retrace below 50K and then below 47K which is last sessions low...

When Bitcoin peaks after a major, major bullish wave, the Altcoins market tends to have a major bullish growth phase. The smaller Alts because the big ones move with Bitcoins.

The ALTSBTC pairs (Altcoins vs Bitcoin) drop always basically and these are growing two to three digits strong daily. This normally happens only when Bitcoin peaks. So it is a signal telling us that Bitcoin either peaked already or is likely to do so in the near future.

March can be really painful for Bitcoin.
March can be really painful overall... Always a month of change; the start of the year; the sun enters Aries.

Now we are tracking Bitcoin on these short-term timeframes and notice that no new higher highs have shown since the 22-Feb. rejection showed up.

We are not saying it is going up or down, in this case we are reading the chart.

Short-term, the bearish potential is in place... Even in the current bounce, the peak happened 51,886 which is another lower high compared to the previous ones even though the situation remains the same as long as 50,500 holds as support.

So we have a rounded top with lower highs and a flat bottom.

The problem is this; Bitcoin is trading at resistance.
Once you are at the top, it is easy to fall.

There is lots of potential for prices to fall and that is the main message I am trying to share.

Even if it doesn't go down tomorrow, it can start going down any day.

The potential for a flash crash in March 2024 is just too strong...

We have a saying in this channel, "We sell high, to buy low!"

Bitcoin is trading pretty high right now compared to a year ago.

Caution is advice... Look at all the pairs that have the exact same chart before Bitcoin broke up.

Notice the hundreds of medium-sized Altcoins that produced a bullish wave and then entered correction mode.

It is a waiting game... Patience is needed when doubt creeps up.

Worst case scenario?
We get a chance at buying Bitcoin at lower prices.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.
Comment:
The same bearish pattern continues to develop.
Bitcoin produced a lower high and new rejection based on the 4H candle:
The action is moving now below EMA10/21 and the RSI going bearish.
Lower support likely to be tested next.

The latest rejection at resistance is easier to appreciate on the 1H TF:
Comment:
The new session is good for two reasons:

1) Canceled the previous rejection. (The resistance now in place, short-term, is the 22-Feb. wick sitting at 52,045.) Remember, if this resistance is challenged, the short-term bearish potential we are tracking weakens strongly. Not a close above it needed only the challenge would be enough to increase bullish potential by a lot.

2) The current session closes the day and week, a very important development. A strong close, while not definitive can result in additional sideways action or even some bullish growth.


We have a mixed signal on the fact that Bitcoin is trading near resistance.
Moving near resistance challenging it continually is ultra-bullish.
Moving near resistance for a long time even without a challenge is ultra-bullish.

So, while we continue to track this "bearish-potential," we continue looking at a bullish Bitcoin.

The only way to see the bearish potential materialize is if the bears show up and they haven't. If the bears do not show, this is just speculative imagination that the bears are sharing when thinking that Bitcoin will start going down and stop going up.

My personal opinion, you know what that is... Here, I am giving you the truth based on the chart.

Namaste.
Comment:
Bitcoin's short-term (4H TF) bearish pattern continues in play.

BTCUSD never managed to close above the 22-Feb. wick high and instead produced a lower high and bearish candlestick on the 25-Feb.

EMA10/21 failed again and soon Bitcoin will be moving below EMA50.
The longer it takes for the correction to develop, the stronger that it becomes.

The probabilities of this week closing red are really high, between 85-90%.
Comment:
Right now we have a strong development.

Bitcoin 4H moved above the 22-Feb. wick high and is moving with high volume and momentum.

The session closes in 35 minutes.
A strong close is a bullish development and negates the bearish pattern discussed in this trade idea.

The next challenge would be the highs of 52K (right below 53K). The main resistance at the moment.

A development like this one is ultra-bullish for the Altcoins. The longer Bitcoin continues consolidating or growing, the stronger the Altcoins become.

Namaste.
Trade closed: stop reached:
A new All-Time High absolutely possible right now.

Bitcoin headed toward $100,000.

I will share a new trade idea with an updated view of the chart.

Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.

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