I just realised that the move from the $4529 high on 24 November to the $3657.60 low yesterday was met with a retracement to above the 68.1 fib yesterday after reaching my $4200 target. This should provide enough momentum for a continuation of the downtrend move to at least the 161.80 fib retracement level (from the $4529 high) which sets my revised target to $3120 so thought I'd rather just create a new post
If the swing low touches the larger downtrend support, hopefully we get a candle body close back above the pitchfork support to keep within market structure and hopefully we have reversal from there.
Not much happening from the alts besides bchsv shenanigans and volume hasn't showed up for the reversal party yet. We also still have hidden bearish divergence so looking for a wave down from here.
Previous chart predicting the $4200:
Previous post predicting the $3660 entry and $4k target:
If the swing low touches the larger downtrend support, hopefully we get a candle body close back above the pitchfork support to keep within market structure and hopefully we have reversal from there.
Not much happening from the alts besides bchsv shenanigans and volume hasn't showed up for the reversal party yet. We also still have hidden bearish divergence so looking for a wave down from here.
Previous chart predicting the $4200:
Previous post predicting the $3660 entry and $4k target:
Comment:
We have the hidden bearish divergence which is playing out at the moment however we also have regular bullish divergence on a higher time frame. We are nearing the bottom and there is the possibility of a strong bounce before the downtrend resumes. Risk management is imperative at these levels.
Trade active:
It seems each attempt to breakout has no volume to follow through and price won't be breaking the $4k on this attempt. By revising and connecting the highs, this actually fits perfectly snug inside the parameters of the pitchfork and descending channel where price has met strong resistance. Next major support from here will be $3500 which may serve as a temporary floor but my ultimate target will be the $3100 area.
Comment:
Should have been Bitfinex not Binance:
Comment:
Falling wedge currently forming on the 1H chart with StochRSI and MACD edging towards a cross to the downside. On-Balance-Volume (OBV) is also peaking so expecting this to start dropping soon.
Comment:
**rising wedge (sorry early start this morning)
Comment:
Nope there it is. Volume just arrived to the party. This may just be a short squeeze, however, since short positions had been gradually rising at the resistance area and the ping pong show has been played back and forth since we got down here. The $4100 has been strong resistance most recently but if we break the $4100 resistance trhen we can expect some stuttering in the $4300-$4400 area.
