I mentioned in the previous post that we might not break channel support because there was hidden on the 4H so to watch the $3900 area for a possible rebound which happened at $3950, but price is now right at the apex of a large which gives us a potential breakdown target of between $2800 - $2860 and which is also a 138.2 fib extension from the height of the flag pole.
Without a break above $4600 the bears still have the upper hand and it doesn't look like the bulls have the momentum to even get above the $4500 yet. A move above $4500 invalidates this setup.
There has been gradually decreasing which doesn't give me much confidence in a move back above $4500 right now . I think when does come back, it will probably spike to the downside.
Not sure it will reach $2800 just yet because we still have strong levels of support around $3500-$3600 but ultimately I believe this is where btcusd is heading, possibly this month.
Before I consider the bottom to be in, I want to see a larger spike than the one we had on 22 December 2017. We haven't had true capitulation yet and price hasn't reached our weekly SMA200 which is currently around $3100.
Once we reach the weekly SMA200, hopefully we get a swing low to around $2800 but a candle close back above the weekly SMA200. A close below $2800 will probably get messy. At least $2800 has been a major area of in the past so hopefully should hold.
Good luck and happy trading!
Usually a H&S is a reversal pattern, however they can also be a bearish continuation pattern. Not very common but they do happen as in this case.
I think we'll be testing new lows if we drop from there but if we do manage to find support above $4200, I don't think we'll get above $4500 unless buying volume changes. You'll notice that buying volume has been gradually dropping after every bearish volume spike. We may find support at around $4150 if price does get to $4500.
You'll notice that buying volume has been gradually dropping after every bearish volume spike. We may find support at around $4150 if we do get to $4500 but better to see what happens closer to then.