Here's my synopsis for the festive month ahead.
Bitcoin found the resistance of a large , is currently testing support and printing a on the 15 min for a rise to around $3980, before breaking market structure and dropping to $3500-$3600, where we should have strong trendline support (which had previously held as resistance since the fall from $6k). This is also a 138.2 fib extension from our 29 November high.
I'm expecting a bounce from there to retest $3750 before dropping to $3140 which is a 138.2 fib extension from our 20 November high and is close to channel support. The herd will then be enticed by a bull trap with a long squeeze rekking noobs all the way down from our $3500 resistance to our $2800 major support (161.8 fib extension from the 20 Nov swing high) just in time for Christmas. Whether we have any recovery from there remains to be seen but there still could potentially be a strong corrective move from there to the upside before true capitulation sets in.
If we get a daily close above $4500 then the bias starts leaning to the bulls, but you can see that after each spike, the subsequent bounce follows through with less buying . Doesn't look like smart money is even remotely confident buying at these levels so down we go.
Good luck and happy trading!