Bears seem to hesitate to push BTC lower into the demand zone at 50-51k. Bulls are nowhere to be seen despite whale buying last week.
In this uncertain situation we need to remember that an asset can also rise due to a lack (or exhaustion) of sellers, even if demand is thin. We have seen this ‘front-running demand’ again and again with BTC.
20 Week MA (orange):
If we extend this important moving average we get potential support around 50600. This MA provided support in September from where the current wave originated.
Geometry:
The pitchfork’s lower boundary is around 49k. The 62% retracement is in the same area (blue box). Together with the 20W MA we get a strong zone of potential support.
Elliott:
The expanding flat (abc in blue) remains valid. Price bounced exactly on the 1.618 extension of wave (a). The count allows for wave v (in green) to be complete here, or complete with one further leg down.
Correlation:
In my analysis of 17 Nov. I wrote about the ‘window of risk’ from 22-29 November for Nasdaq, based on the lunar eclipses. We are still within this risk window. The top was reached exactly on 22 November and price declined since then. QQQ still has lower targets and if BTC correlates or not depends on the momentum of QQQ on Monday/Tuesday. Remember that Nasdaq Futures already start trading on Sunday, depending on your timezone.
How I trade it:
What we need to see is either A) a Capitulation candle, or B) a SOS (sign of strength) following a Wyckoff re-accumulation. The pitchfork can provide levels to stack entries, for example at the lower and upper boundary. The idea is to trade the next wave to the upside, in case our 'expanding flat' idea is correct.
In this uncertain situation we need to remember that an asset can also rise due to a lack (or exhaustion) of sellers, even if demand is thin. We have seen this ‘front-running demand’ again and again with BTC.
20 Week MA (orange):
If we extend this important moving average we get potential support around 50600. This MA provided support in September from where the current wave originated.
Geometry:
The pitchfork’s lower boundary is around 49k. The 62% retracement is in the same area (blue box). Together with the 20W MA we get a strong zone of potential support.
Elliott:
The expanding flat (abc in blue) remains valid. Price bounced exactly on the 1.618 extension of wave (a). The count allows for wave v (in green) to be complete here, or complete with one further leg down.
Correlation:
In my analysis of 17 Nov. I wrote about the ‘window of risk’ from 22-29 November for Nasdaq, based on the lunar eclipses. We are still within this risk window. The top was reached exactly on 22 November and price declined since then. QQQ still has lower targets and if BTC correlates or not depends on the momentum of QQQ on Monday/Tuesday. Remember that Nasdaq Futures already start trading on Sunday, depending on your timezone.
How I trade it:
What we need to see is either A) a Capitulation candle, or B) a SOS (sign of strength) following a Wyckoff re-accumulation. The pitchfork can provide levels to stack entries, for example at the lower and upper boundary. The idea is to trade the next wave to the upside, in case our 'expanding flat' idea is correct.