Hi its turning mecard! yes, another crazy weekend! i went long 6150, sold that 64, went short 64 sold that 63, went long a while ago 6250 sold that at 650. so crazy now! anyway, very important week for btc because weekly candle is bearish! so bearish, that it risks another drop almost 705 coming week!
so let's get into the chart! first daily!
daily shows a little run up is possible, only for today, and maybe until wed. we have a wick candle at daily, not so good, but usually if the daily closes higher in price it tries to go over that wick. but, it can always drop at any point, so we have to be careful.
it can always drop at any point from now, next 7 days. daily rsi does not show bull div, daily stoch looks better, not confirmed with uptrend. so if you are long you can always sell that at 63, or 64 to secure your profit.
weekly is bearish! yes we risk going 59, or even below this week, or next week anyways. 100ema is 5800, if we break that down, we go straight to low 5k now. weekly has a little bull div, does not mean so much, not so specific yet. so keep this in mind, this little pump will only live to 64/65, maybe 66 level at most now.
so now, you can see that after a small pump, btc is getting weak again. so this is a mini bull pennant maybe, but also in big picture a bear flag. we need to sell longs, if you have some, and turn to short positions at 63 level earliest, or 64~65 level if that comes. that could be the max price, before further drop this week.
only thing bothers me is that daily stoch, is making a golden cross, which whales play with those indicators a lot. but overall, we have lots of bear div in indicators, which is not good, so further drop after a bounce is always in the cards.
so mini bull+bearish flag, inside a bear flag. we should break down again at some point, only thing is when would it break down. so now, if you scaped long position, observe little more. i will update more. at the moment i am out of the market observing how it will become of. there are some ta's saying that this is a harmonic pattern, gartley pattern, which targets more than 6.8k, well let's see. i don't believe in going much higher unless i see bull div on daily, weekly indicators.
so today for now trading plan is.
1. open short
63.3,5-small portion/64~65 level(more portion, this can take some days now)
sell:below 6100, 5900, below that
2.open long
not so recommended, since this pump has been made to 63 zone, i will update for more.
so, period to accumulate real money to invest in altcoins, and btc can come in the next several weeks. so keep an eye on it!
so let's get into the chart! first daily!
daily shows a little run up is possible, only for today, and maybe until wed. we have a wick candle at daily, not so good, but usually if the daily closes higher in price it tries to go over that wick. but, it can always drop at any point, so we have to be careful.
it can always drop at any point from now, next 7 days. daily rsi does not show bull div, daily stoch looks better, not confirmed with uptrend. so if you are long you can always sell that at 63, or 64 to secure your profit.
weekly is bearish! yes we risk going 59, or even below this week, or next week anyways. 100ema is 5800, if we break that down, we go straight to low 5k now. weekly has a little bull div, does not mean so much, not so specific yet. so keep this in mind, this little pump will only live to 64/65, maybe 66 level at most now.
only thing bothers me is that daily stoch, is making a golden cross, which whales play with those indicators a lot. but overall, we have lots of bear div in indicators, which is not good, so further drop after a bounce is always in the cards.
so mini bull+bearish flag, inside a bear flag. we should break down again at some point, only thing is when would it break down. so now, if you scaped long position, observe little more. i will update more. at the moment i am out of the market observing how it will become of. there are some ta's saying that this is a harmonic pattern, gartley pattern, which targets more than 6.8k, well let's see. i don't believe in going much higher unless i see bull div on daily, weekly indicators.
so today for now trading plan is.
1. open short
63.3,5-small portion/64~65 level(more portion, this can take some days now)
sell:below 6100, 5900, below that
2.open long
not so recommended, since this pump has been made to 63 zone, i will update for more.
so, period to accumulate real money to invest in altcoins, and btc can come in the next several weeks. so keep an eye on it!
Comment:
4hr we have bear, and bull div at the same time. now, in downtrends, bear div is more powerful. if we break down, yes we would go to 5800 area. so risk reward, buying shorts are more attractive then longs in mid term now. so again, 63~65 area, are all good to buy shorts for now.
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so another comparison with last descensing broading wedge. for your reference.
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www.tradingview.com/x/T6j6xmwl/this is the daily, in descending broading wedge. so, if we manage to dip to 59 or 60, but we make a high on daily rsi, most likely 58/59 will be short.mid term bottom, but, if it needs to hit 30 or below in rsi again, we might see 5300~5500 level in coming weeks.
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www.tradingview.com/x/L5AFk3MR/this is the chart.
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oops! re upload now.
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guys, yes, this might be the answer! big triangle, small bull pennant, maybe a small ascending triangle! so each level price, key resistance which can hit, fall at any moment! so, watch for these prices, you can open shorts more the high level it comes! hope this is more likely now! oh, so confusing, whales playing this game..lol
Comment:
guys, i'm really trying to figure everything out! so most bullish scenario! we hit 58 or 59, and make a run! long time frame in daily is making a bull div, long time frame now. so if we dip to 30, daily rsi, we should see new lows, if we do not maybe short term bottom is that, which would indicate somewhat triple bottom, normally third bottom is higher then former. just a speculation! keke
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so i got in shorts at 6340, if 6200 breaks, i plan to see if 6100 is in support, if that is support it will only come up to 6250 or highest 6300, make lower high, and drop again, i will not sell. at the moment 6100 double bottom means nothing at all, only a lower high is possible for that. if 6240 level is supported we can see another uprun to 6400 even. if that happens i sell right away, wait for higher entries for short. so lets see.
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i sold 50% of shorts at 6255! oh, you see it is possible this may classically make an inverse h&s move(even it breaks down after), it is a bull pennat after all. let's see. i plan to sell all of shorts when a reversal is coming at 62 level.
Trade active:
ok guys, so if you want to go long at this level, stoploss is 6200(i think it could bounce from 6200 to 6240 so you can get out there in same price). i entered long small amount at 6257 now. i will put sell order at 6400, with no greed, stop is 6200. opening short, we need to think possibility of reaching lower high(6400), former high(6455), higher high(6510, 30). leverage your money, buy 10% 6400, 20% 6444, 40% (6523), and hold that. stop is 6580.
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some reason, bitmex froze just before btc was making an attempt to 63zone, just like 4minutes or 5, btc lost some momentum of upwards movement. now it risks of coming back inside the wedge again, very weird now. if this 1hr closes inside the pennant, below 6290, or 6280, it will be bearish.4hr also, is on the verge of being bullish/vs bearish, so just be careful.
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Ok.finally little btrakout upwards..not so convincing though. plan to take profit around 6340 or 6350 for longs,better to concentrate on shorts instead.
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So i mentioned earlier usually when we see a wick candle on daily after it goes down comes back,it usually challenges that wick which is around 6490 two days ago. Now it would not seem convincing but since it broke upwards from the pennant,i assume btc would make some spark up close somewhere at 63 levels in coming daily and try to regain strength for 6490.in that mean time 4hr 1hr can get bullish so we should never underesitimate btc. If we even go that level close daily at 64 that is bullish,we can even see 65 or 66.it seems slow but we cannot undermine btc at any reason.so it is still little early that 6150 would break down we need to see some more days to see where the top would be. For now i do not think opening short at 63 level is good if it is a swing trade not scalping. If you are in longs hold that a bit, maybe you can see tomorrows close.
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Ok i sold some longs.Sell longs around 50 60% now.
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My shorts at 6400/6420 also got filled..hmm..i will see if they support 63 firmly i will just sell it anywhere at 63. But hold for now.