COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It's amazing how zooming out gives you perspective on the price action. The way I see it we have 3 key price levels at this moment.

6400 level : This level has been providing support for quite some time and has been tested quite a lot, the break below in March was quickly bought up again and we are back in the range between this level and ...

9200-9300 level : historical resistance level . We have been trading between the 6.4 K and this level for quite some time, not only since September 2019, but also in the period April through October 2018.

Finally there is the 13.8-13.9K level, the highest monthly close. If we manage to break and close above the 9.2K level on the monthly chart, this level is most likely going to provide resistance. Of course we can go above it, but what matters is where the month closes.

So what does this all mean for the future price action. Honestly, nobody knows, but I will give you my thoughts on it :
I think the month of April will close around the 9.2K level and in May we will see a ramp up in price of people FOMO-ing in anticipating the #bitcoinhalving. I do not expect spectacular price action in the next few months and chances are that we will still remain in the band between 6.4 and 9.2K for a couple of months until the "supply shock" gets real and miners don't have that much BTC to sell off. After that (probably Q3-Q4 2020) we'll probably see a price hike testing the 13.8K level. A lot will depend on retail and the macro-economic situation whether we'll break that level or not ...

Let me know whether this makes sense or not in the comments below, and if you like my idea, please give it a thumbs up. Thank you for your time !
Comment: A closer look on how the 9.2K level has been important in the past

Comment: Note that what I am referring to here are the monthly closing levels. Of course price can breach those levels on the daily, even weekly level, what is important here is where the candle closes for the month.
Comment: As expected, April closed below the 9.2K resistance line. Let's see what May brings now and the run into the halving.
Comment: As expected, we broke above the 9.2K level heading into the Bitcoinhalving. Question remains, where will we close the month ... I do expect some kind of "buy the rumor, sell the news"-reaction where we will see a dip after the halving dropping back below that 9.2K level.
If we would find support on it though, that would be pretty bullish for #BTC

Comment: Today we tested the 9.2K level from the upside. Question remains if it will hold and serve as support but we'll know soon enough I guess ...
The 9.2K resistance level is still holding on the monthly as expected. One week to go till the end of this month and my expectation is that we will stay below this level for now.


For years everyone has talked about the volatility of bitcoin and why it can't take over from the dollar. You just shown that pretty much the last 2 years it has shown stability trading in the 6.4 to 9.2 range. Most people hate volatility and I think you will get more people using bitcoin if they see it trading within a reasonable range most of the time.
+2 Reply
Nico.Muselle kingbum365
@kingbum365, you are absolutely right. I did not think of this angle but it is true that we have spent a lot of time in that range for the last 2 years so you could definitely speak of "reasonable stability". Thank you for pointing me to it.
+1 Reply
A very good map @Nico.Muselle
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle ridethepig
Thanks @ridethepig, let's see if we find support on the 9.2K level by the end of the month ... Q3 starts next month so things slowly might be ramping up.
A lot will depend on how the stock market reacts though and whether the unlimited supply of money will continue ... As much as we would like it not to be, it's still correlated.
ridethepig Nico.Muselle
You are right @Nico.Muselle, of course. Answer comes from what happens after Uncle Sam’s generosity exhausts itself.
Keep up your good work ! Thanks for sharing
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle Anoinvest
@Anoinvest, my pleasure, thanks !
Wonderful Analysis.
Keep sharing
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle Cryptorphic
@Cryptorphic, thank you. I don't publish a lot because I usually analyze for the long term. Maybe I should share a bit more on the mid and short term :)
Cryptorphic Nico.Muselle
@Nico.Muselle, Of course you should. You have got eagle eyes, as I can see. Very few people think about the monthly closes.
+1 Reply
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