This analysis is purely theoretical and based upon past performance. As you all know this is no indicator for the future but I'm giving it a try anyway.
The "Consolidation Periods" in this analysis are the periods after price reached its (temporary) peak and pulled back to form a higher low. We can see that these higher lows are always higher than the peak price of the previous highs.
Additionally, we can see that these periods get longer over time. The first period was 5 3-month candles (about 1 yr and 3 months), the second one was significantly longer with 10 of those candles or almost 3 years. Would it be crazy to think that the consolidation period we are currently in would take about 15 candles ?
This would mean that price will exceed the previous high close of around $14k by the end of 2021. Given the current macro-economic situation, keeping in mind the COVID pandemic and the effect it has on the economy, this is certainly not unthinkable.
Question remains what price will do before that period. Will we revisit the lows around $3k again before the end of the consolidation ? In the previous consolidation periods we had a single bottom, and support around $6K should be very strong, but I would not exclude the (small) possibility that it does.
Patience definitely will be key, but in my humble opinion, this is a good time to invest. As always though, only time will tell.
What do you think ? What is your view on the situation ?
Leave your thoughts in the comments below and if you like this analysis, thanks for giving it a thumbs up.
Thanks for your visit !
#staysafe
PS : Have a look at these ideas linked below as well ... for now they are still working out they way it was expected. :)
The "Consolidation Periods" in this analysis are the periods after price reached its (temporary) peak and pulled back to form a higher low. We can see that these higher lows are always higher than the peak price of the previous highs.
Additionally, we can see that these periods get longer over time. The first period was 5 3-month candles (about 1 yr and 3 months), the second one was significantly longer with 10 of those candles or almost 3 years. Would it be crazy to think that the consolidation period we are currently in would take about 15 candles ?
This would mean that price will exceed the previous high close of around $14k by the end of 2021. Given the current macro-economic situation, keeping in mind the COVID pandemic and the effect it has on the economy, this is certainly not unthinkable.
Question remains what price will do before that period. Will we revisit the lows around $3k again before the end of the consolidation ? In the previous consolidation periods we had a single bottom, and support around $6K should be very strong, but I would not exclude the (small) possibility that it does.
Patience definitely will be key, but in my humble opinion, this is a good time to invest. As always though, only time will tell.
What do you think ? What is your view on the situation ?
Leave your thoughts in the comments below and if you like this analysis, thanks for giving it a thumbs up.
Thanks for your visit !
#staysafe
PS : Have a look at these ideas linked below as well ... for now they are still working out they way it was expected. :)
Comment:
For completeness I have added the halving dates to the chart :
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Twitter: twitter.com/NicoMuselle
