BTC on the 4-Hr, Thought Experiment and Price Predictions
In a previous chart, I indicated what could be expected on a breakout when you enter a Symmetrical Triangle, Wedge, Pennant, or Flag formation. This is just a reference and based all on probability.
I have previously indicated that theoretically, whenever the price action meets the criteria of those mentioned above, we look at the opening of said structure to QUESS at the probability of future price action. The general belief in nearly every textbook I have read, and through my personal experience is you can realistically see the price action move up or down the length of the opening of the structure. I tend to look to 1/2 the length of the opening of the structure for the initial breakout move on the 4-Hr timeframe.
So, you can see from the chart above we are entering one of those patterns now -- I have indicated the opening in green with a letter "A" and corresponding green horizontal lines in "B", and, "C". No matter how you perceive the chart above we are moving right into a volatility ("VOL") squeeze.
Let's have a look.
"A" represents where I believe the opening of the pattern exists (Subjective).
"B" represents the POSSIBLE breakout move on a VOL squeeze with a breakout price of, around $5,108 (Please stop laughing!).
"C" is the obvious opposite of "B" and demonstrates the REALISTIC price level of ABOUT $1,927. I tend to believe this is VERY realistic and coincides with my past price predictions of $1,800 to $2,400, with a February price prediction of 3k.
I have no investment in BTC, but still have all my chicken feathers intact because I have not yet jumped into the boiling water (those who have been to a chicken processing plant know what I mean) and still sit on the sidelines hoping for the sub 3k levels to put my chicken toe in the boiling water.
In Conclusion:
I am a BEAR (opinion only) and have been a Bear since putting charts up on Trading View. All the above trendlines point to lower prices both long-term and short-term. The Bear market is still here and in full swing. The lower Orange Dotted Trendline is still intact and holding. The above solid trendline has been breached at least once indicating longs probing for higher prices and getting knocked back into reality. The overall chart appears BEARISH where my short-term price action indicated at the $3,216 as price support.
I hope you find TA interesting and informative. if anything, my goal is to give a simple side of TA and not over complicate the chart. if you follow me, you know why I don't use a bunch of indicators. After more than a quarter of a century of charting, I have a pretty good feel for my TA -- not to mention I do use some behind the scenes like my main indicator, the volume profile. That is how I can get so close to price support levels. Just look at some of my past charts and that is where those strangely placed priced levels are located. Yes, there is a method to my madness!
I have previously indicated that theoretically, whenever the price action meets the criteria of those mentioned above, we look at the opening of said structure to QUESS at the probability of future price action. The general belief in nearly every textbook I have read, and through my personal experience is you can realistically see the price action move up or down the length of the opening of the structure. I tend to look to 1/2 the length of the opening of the structure for the initial breakout move on the 4-Hr timeframe.
So, you can see from the chart above we are entering one of those patterns now -- I have indicated the opening in green with a letter "A" and corresponding green horizontal lines in "B", and, "C". No matter how you perceive the chart above we are moving right into a volatility ("VOL") squeeze.
Let's have a look.
"A" represents where I believe the opening of the pattern exists (Subjective).
"B" represents the POSSIBLE breakout move on a VOL squeeze with a breakout price of, around $5,108 (Please stop laughing!).
"C" is the obvious opposite of "B" and demonstrates the REALISTIC price level of ABOUT $1,927. I tend to believe this is VERY realistic and coincides with my past price predictions of $1,800 to $2,400, with a February price prediction of 3k.
I have no investment in BTC, but still have all my chicken feathers intact because I have not yet jumped into the boiling water (those who have been to a chicken processing plant know what I mean) and still sit on the sidelines hoping for the sub 3k levels to put my chicken toe in the boiling water.
In Conclusion:
I am a BEAR (opinion only) and have been a Bear since putting charts up on Trading View. All the above trendlines point to lower prices both long-term and short-term. The Bear market is still here and in full swing. The lower Orange Dotted Trendline is still intact and holding. The above solid trendline has been breached at least once indicating longs probing for higher prices and getting knocked back into reality. The overall chart appears BEARISH where my short-term price action indicated at the $3,216 as price support.
I hope you find TA interesting and informative. if anything, my goal is to give a simple side of TA and not over complicate the chart. if you follow me, you know why I don't use a bunch of indicators. After more than a quarter of a century of charting, I have a pretty good feel for my TA -- not to mention I do use some behind the scenes like my main indicator, the volume profile. That is how I can get so close to price support levels. Just look at some of my past charts and that is where those strangely placed priced levels are located. Yes, there is a method to my madness!
