I've seen Optical Artdotcom and even Bob Loukas entertain the notion that Bitcoin is going to retreat 80% in a bear market down to $14000 as a probability to a possibility. I'm sure there are others.
However, there is no basis for this in previous cycles.
In the 2011-13 bull cycle intermediate wave (1) high was $16.41 in Aug 2012. Intermediate wave (4) correction got as low as $85 in Oct 2013, but that was still more than 5 x the wave (1) high price.
In the 2015-17 bull cycle intermediate wave (1) high was $778.85 in Jun 2016. Intermediate wave (4) correction got as low as $2972 in Sep 2017, but that was still almost 4 x the wave (1) high price.
In this Dec 2018 too the present bull cycle intermediate wave (1) high was $13880 in Jun 2019. Intermediate wave (4) correction got as low as $32950 in Jan 2022; this correction may not be finished but I doubt it will go lower than the minor wave A of this wave (4) in Jun 2021 at $28600. That is still more than 2 x the Jun 2019 wave (1) high price in Jun 2019.
So anybody who says that BTC is going to $14000 in this corrective wave and that BTC is in a bull market does not understand Bitcoin's previous cycles or Elliot Wave theory or both. Bitcoin simply does not fall below a previous cycle high during a current cycle.
For example in Jun 2011 BTC got to about $32 which was that first cycle high. In the bear market of 2014 the low was $164, more than 5x the previous cycle high of $32.
In the 2018 bear market Bitcoin reached a low of $3122 in Dec 2018. This was still much higher than the $1163 cycle high in Nov 2013, almost 3 times as high.
IMO the same thing will happen in this cycle. After reaching a cycle high in perhaps a year of about $200K to $250K, BTC will go into another almost 1 year bear market. It may go down 70-80% again to perhaps $50K to $60K, but that will still be 2-3 times as high as the Dec 2017 cycle high of near $20K.
However, there is no basis for this in previous cycles.
In the 2011-13 bull cycle intermediate wave (1) high was $16.41 in Aug 2012. Intermediate wave (4) correction got as low as $85 in Oct 2013, but that was still more than 5 x the wave (1) high price.
In the 2015-17 bull cycle intermediate wave (1) high was $778.85 in Jun 2016. Intermediate wave (4) correction got as low as $2972 in Sep 2017, but that was still almost 4 x the wave (1) high price.
In this Dec 2018 too the present bull cycle intermediate wave (1) high was $13880 in Jun 2019. Intermediate wave (4) correction got as low as $32950 in Jan 2022; this correction may not be finished but I doubt it will go lower than the minor wave A of this wave (4) in Jun 2021 at $28600. That is still more than 2 x the Jun 2019 wave (1) high price in Jun 2019.
So anybody who says that BTC is going to $14000 in this corrective wave and that BTC is in a bull market does not understand Bitcoin's previous cycles or Elliot Wave theory or both. Bitcoin simply does not fall below a previous cycle high during a current cycle.
For example in Jun 2011 BTC got to about $32 which was that first cycle high. In the bear market of 2014 the low was $164, more than 5x the previous cycle high of $32.
In the 2018 bear market Bitcoin reached a low of $3122 in Dec 2018. This was still much higher than the $1163 cycle high in Nov 2013, almost 3 times as high.
IMO the same thing will happen in this cycle. After reaching a cycle high in perhaps a year of about $200K to $250K, BTC will go into another almost 1 year bear market. It may go down 70-80% again to perhaps $50K to $60K, but that will still be 2-3 times as high as the Dec 2017 cycle high of near $20K.